Forecast and levels for GOLD (XAU/USD) - page 5

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.23 19:35

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (based on the article)


XAU/USD - "The Federal Reserve released its 4th quarter projections this week and although the committee did upwardly revised their year-end GDP forecast to 2.4%, they lowered inflation expectations with Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) revised lower to just 1.5% from 1.7%. This was the second consecutive reduction we’ve seen in the Fed’s inflation forecast and continues to suggest the central bank remains uneasy with the continued softness in price growth. It’s also worth noting that the interest rate dot-plot suggests the Fed remains committed to one more hike this year, expectations for the terminal or longer-run rate were lowered with the median forecast now calling for a nominal rate of 2.75%. The point is that although markets did need to reprice the December, the end rate suggests the glide path will likely be even slower than expected. That said, look for USD gains to be limited. From a technical standpoint, the prices do remain at risk near-term with the decline likely to offer favorable points of entry for the bulls."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.27 08:04

Gold - daily ranging bullish; 1,263 support (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish ranging above 100-SMA/200-SMA reversal area within 1,357 resistance and 1,263 support levels. If the price breaks 1,263 support to below so the daily bearish reversal will be started, otherwise - the ranging bullish trend will be continuing in the near future for example.


  • "Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 74.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.93 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 4.2% higher than yesterday and 15.8% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 13.1% lower than yesterday and 21.3% lower from last week. "
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


 

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Gold Forecasting

Michele Manenti, 2017.10.01 16:26

Weekly GOLD analysis, levels to keep in reference for the week



 

Weekly analysis of GOLD, levels to keep IN reference for the week, here's another perspective of the TREND forecast.


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.04 07:22

GOLD (XAU/USD) - daily correction near bearish reversal; 1,255 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is located near and above Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is testing descending triangle pattern with 1,268 support level to below with 1,255 level as the nearest target for the bearish reversal to be started. 


  • "Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 75.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.15 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 8.2% higher than yesterday and 5.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.6% lower than yesterday and 6.4% lower from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias."
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The chart was made on W1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


 

Gold is getting close to the 200 day EMA around the 1263 level and even though it has tried to retrace to the upside, the bearish trend is still in place.

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.12 16:28

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): U.S. Producer Price Index 

2017-10-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - PPI]

  • past data is 0.2%
  • forecast data is 0.4%
  • actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

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From official report :

  • "The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.4 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.2 percent in August and edged down 0.1 percent in July. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended in September, the largest rise since an advance of 2.8 percent for the 12 months ended February 2012."

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USD/CNH M15: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index  news events


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XAU/USD M15: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index  news events


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Chart #1 was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

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Chart #2 was made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 
Michele Manenti:

Weekly analysis of GOLD, levels to keep IN reference for the week, here's another perspective of the TREND forecast.


My prediction of the GOLD movement last week it turned out to be very accurate
 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.25 14:55

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY and GOLD (XAU/USD): U.S. Durable Goods Orders

2017-10-25 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is 2.0%
  • forecast data is 1.0%
  • actual data is 2.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From cnbc article :

  • "Overall orders for durable goods shot up 2.2 percent last month amid a 5.1 percent rise in demand for transportation equipment."
  • "Durable goods orders, items ranging from toasters to aircraft meant to last three years or more, increased 2.0 percent in August."
  • "New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods increased more than expected in September and shipments rose for an eighth straight month."

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events


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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events


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Chart #1 was made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

==========

Chart #2 was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.28 11:53

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (based on the article)


XAU/USD - "Heading into next week, all eyes fall on the Fed with the FOMC rate decision slated for Wednesday. While no change to the benchmark rate is expected, traders will be looking for any changes to the accompanying statement- specifically as it pertains to the inflationary outlook. Keep in mind markets have largely priced in a December hike with Fed Fund Futures currently showing an 87.1% probability for an increase of 25bps. However with both 3Q GDP and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) coming in stronger-than-expected on Friday, the question now becomes the future pace of subsequent rate-hikes."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


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