Forecast and levels for USD/CNH - page 11

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.09.19 12:15

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CAD, USD/JPY and USD/CNH: Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

2019-09-18 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 2.25%
  • forecast data is 2.00%
  • actual data is 2.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

==========

From official report :

  • "Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-3/4 to 2 percent. This action supports the Committee's view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain. As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by  Federal Funds Rate news events

USD/CAD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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USD/JPY: range price movement by  Federal Funds Rate news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by  Federal Funds Rate news events

SD/CNH: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.10.04 15:10

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CNH: United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2019-10-04 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 168K
  • forecast data is 145K
  • actual data is 136K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "The unemployment rate declined to 3.5 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 136,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in health care and in professional and business services continued to trend up."

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USD/JPY: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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USD/CAD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

USD/CAD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

USD/CNH: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

USD/CNH Daily Technical Analysis: watch for key resistance to be broken for the daily bullish continuation

The price is located near and above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish market condition within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 7,1578 resistance level located near and above Ichimoku cloud for the bullish trend to be continuing, and
  • 7,1065 support level located near and below Ichimoku cloud for the secondary ranging market condition to be started.

USD/CNH Daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • If the price will break7,1578 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • if price will break7,1065 support so the secondary ranging correction with the possible bearish reversal will be started.
  • if not sothe price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance
Support
7,1956
7,1065
7,1578 7,0347
N/A 6,9889

The Medium-Term Strategy: watch close price to break 7,1578 resistance level for possible buy trade. Alternateve - watch price to break 7,0347 support level for possible sell trade.

============

The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.10.14 09:04

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and range price movement 

2019-10-14 03:00 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 240B
  • forecast data is 254B
  • actual data is 275B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.

==========

From business.financialpost article :

  • "China’s exports fell at a faster pace in September while imports contracted for a fifth straight month, pointing to further weakness in the economy and underlining the need for more stimulus as the Sino-U.S. trade war drags on. Exports fell 3.2% from a year earlier, the biggest fall since February, customs data showed on Monday. Analysts had expected a 3% decline in a Reuters poll after August’s 1% drop."

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USD/CNH: range price movement by China  Trade Balance news event 

USD/CNH: range price movement by China Trade Balance news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.10.15 09:08

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Consumer Price Index (CPI) and range price movement 

2019-10-15 01:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]

  • past data is 2.8%
  • forecast data is 2.9%
  • actual data is 3.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From rttnews article :

  • "Consumer prices in China were up 3.0 percent on year in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday. On a monthly basis, inflation rose 0.9 percent - accelerating from 0.7 percent in the previous month. The bureau also said that producer prices contracted 1.2 percent on year, matching expectations following the 0.8 percent decline a month earlier."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China  Consumer Price Index news event 

USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China Consumer Price Index news event

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

Identified Trend Channels

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.10.18 09:53

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2019-10-18 02:00 GMT | [CNY - GDP]

  • past data is 6.2%
  • forecast data is 6.1%
  • actual data is 6.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From cnbc article :

  • "China released third-quarter GDP figures on Friday showing the economy grew 6.0% from a year ago. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected China’s third-quarter GDP to grow 6.1% from a year ago."

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by  China Gross Domestic Product news event 

USD/CNH: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase: 

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.10.31 07:26

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, GOLD (XAU/USD) and USD/CNH: Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

2019-10-30 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 2.00%
  • forecast data is 1.75%
  • actual data is 1.75% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

==========

From official report :

  • "Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. This action supports the Committee's view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain. The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate."

==========

Dollar Index: range price movement by  Federal Funds Rate news events

Dollar Index: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

XAU/USD: range price movement by  Federal Funds Rate news events

XAU/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by  Federal Funds Rate news events

USD/CNH: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.11.01 09:04

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI and range price movement 

2019-11-01 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 51.4
  • forecast data is 51.0
  • actual data is 51.7 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "October data showed the strongest improvement in operating conditions faced by Chinese manufacturers since February 2017. Output and new orders both expanded at steeper rates, with the latter supported by a renewed increase in export business. As a result, companies increased their purchasing activity, and at the quickest pace for 20 months. However, efforts to contain costs contributed to a further drop in staffing levels, which underpinned another solid increase in outstanding business. Prices charged by manufacturers meanwhile fell slightly due to competitive market pressures, while cost burdens rose only slightly. Business confidence regarding the 12-month outlook for output improved to its highest since April, with a number of firms optimistic that market conditions will strengthen. The headline seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – rose from 51.4 in September to 51.7 in October. The index has now signalled an improvement in operating conditions for three months running, with the latest improvement the strongest seen since February 2017."

==========

USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China  Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event 

USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.11.08 10:52

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and range price movement 

2019-11-08 03:17 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 275B
  • forecast data is 287B
  • actual data is 301B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.

==========

From cnbc article :

  • "China’s exports and imports declined in October, Reuters reported citing data from the country’s customs released on Friday. In dollar terms, exports fell 0.9% while imports fell 6.4% from a year ago in October, but beat analysts’ forecasts. Trade balance for October was $42.81 billion, compared to analyst forecasts of $40.83 billion."

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by China  Trade Balance news event 

USD/CNH: range price movement by China Trade Balance news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

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