European Union Industrial Confidence Indicator

Country:
European Union
EUR, Euro
Sector:
Business
Low 4.7 5
5.6
Last release Importance Actual Forecast
Previous
5
4.7
Next release Actual Forecast
Previous
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Industrial Confidence Indicator describes the current evaluation of the development of EU manufacturing companies and expectations for the next quarter. The indicator is based on factor analysis involving surveys among the leading industry representatives. The sample size for the eurozone is about 20 thousand companies representing all sectors of the manufacturing industry in the eurozone. The number of companies per country is selected in accordance with the contribution of a particular country to the economy of the euro area.

It differs from the similar Business Climate Indicator in that it considers three variables, rather than five ones:

  • The total number of current orders (more than sufficient, sufficient or insufficient);
  • Current stocks (very large, normal for the current season, very small);
  • Production volume in three months (whether production is expected to grow, fall or remain unchanged).

The index is seasonally adjusted. Respondents are asked to provide a qualitative evaluation of the above variables, rather than qualitative ones.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is an indicator of the eurozone's production sector development. Due to its generalized nature, it reflects a relative picture of business conditions in the euro area. Economists consider it as one of the composite indicators of economic development. The BCI growth speaks of improvements in manufacturing sector conditions and is a leading indicator of production output. Investors interpret the index growth as a signal to increase investment.

Index changes usually have a weak and short-term effect on euro quotes. However, sharp movements of the index chart are usually seen as a serious indicator of changing economic conditions.

Last values:

actual data

forecast

The chart of the entire available history of the "European Union Industrial Confidence Indicator" macroeconomic indicator. The dashed line shows the forecast values ​​of the economic indicator for the specified dates.

A significant deviation of a real value from a forecast one may cause a short-term strengthening or weakening of a national currency in the Forex market. The threshold values ​​of the indicators signaling the approach of the critical state of the national (local) economy occupy a special place.

Date (GMT)
Reference
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Sep 2018
4.7
5
5.6
Aug 2018
5.5
4.6
5.8
Jul 2018
5.8
5.6
6.9
Jun 2018
6.9
6.5
6.9
May 2018
6.8
7.6
7.3
Apr 2018
7.1
7.6
7
Mar 2018
6.4
8.6
8
Feb 2018
8
8.9
9
Jan 2018
8.8
8.5
8.8
Dec 2017
9.1
7.6
8.1
Nov 2017
8.2
6.6
8
Oct 2017
7.9
5.2
6.7
Sep 2017
6.6
4.5
5
Aug 2017
5.1
4.5
4.5
Jul 2017
4.5
3.6
4.5
Jun 2017
4.5
2.7
2.8
May 2017
2.8
1.9
2.6
Apr 2017
2.6
1.3
Mar 2017
1.2
1.3
Feb 2017
1.3
0.8
Jan 2017
0.8
0
Dec 2016
0.1
-1.1
Nov 2016
-1.1
-0.6
Oct 2016
-0.6
-1.8
Sep 2016
-1.7
-4.3
Aug 2016
-4.4
-2.6
Jul 2016
-2.4
-2.8
Jun 2016
-2.8
-3.7
May 2016
-3.6
-3.6
Apr 2016
-3.7
-4.2
Mar 2016
-4.2
-4.1
Feb 2016
-4.4
-3.1
Jan 2016
-3.2
-2
Dec 2015
-2
-3.2
Nov 2015
-3.2
-2
Oct 2015
-2
-2.3
Sep 2015
-2.2
-3.7
Aug 2015
-3.7
-2.9
Jul 2015
-2.9
-3.4
Jun 2015
-3.4
-3
May 2015
-3
-3.2
Apr 2015
-3.2
-2.9
Mar 2015
-2.9
-4.7
Feb 2015
-4.7
-5
Jan 2015
-4.8
-4
Dec 2014
-4
-4.3
Nov 2014
-4.3
-5.1
Oct 2014
-5.1
-5.5
Sep 2014
-5.5
-5.3
Aug 2014
-5.3
-3.8

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