Data Science and ML (Part 36): Dealing with Biased Financial Markets
Financial markets are not perfectly balanced. Some markets are bullish, some are bearish, and some exhibit some ranging behaviors indicating uncertainty in either direction, this unbalanced information when used to train machine learning models can be misleading as the markets change frequently. In this article, we are going to discuss several ways to tackle this issue.
Neural Network in Practice: Secant Line
As already explained in the theoretical part, when working with neural networks we need to use linear regressions and derivatives. Why? The reason is that linear regression is one of the simplest formulas in existence. Essentially, linear regression is just an affine function. However, when we talk about neural networks, we are not interested in the effects of direct linear regression. We are interested in the equation that generates this line. We are not that interested in the line created. Do you know the main equation that we need to understand? If not, I recommend reading this article to understanding it.
Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 07): First improvements (II)
In the previous article, we made some fixes and added tests to our replication system to ensure the best possible stability. We also started creating and using a configuration file for this system.
An Introduction to the Study of Fractal Market Structures Using Machine Learning
The article attempts to examine financial time series from the perspective of self-similar fractal structures. Since we have too many analogies that confirm the possibility of considering market quotes as self-similar fractals, this allows us to think about the forecasting horizons of such structures.
Bivariate Copulae in MQL5 (Part 2): Implementing Archimedean copulae in MQL5
In the second installment of the series, we discuss the properties of bivariate Archimedean copulae and their implementation in MQL5. We also explore applying copulae to the development of a simple pairs trading strategy.
Integrating Computer Vision into Trading in MQL5 (Part 2): Extending the Architecture to 2D RGB Image Analysis
Computer vision for trading: how it works and how to develop it step by step. We create an algorithm for recognition of RGB images of price charts using the attention mechanism and a bidirectional LSTM layer. As a result, we obtain a working model for forecasting the EURUSD price with the accuracy of up to 55% in the validation section.
Implementing Practical Modules from Other Languages in MQL5 (Part 04): time, date, and datetime modules from Python
Unlike MQL5, Python programming language offers control and flexibility when it comes to dealing with and manipulating time. In this article, we will implement similar modules for better handling of dates and time in MQL5 as in Python.
Population optimization algorithms: Boids Algorithm
The article considers Boids algorithm based on unique examples of animal flocking behavior. In turn, the Boids algorithm serves as the basis for the creation of the whole class of algorithms united under the name "Swarm Intelligence".
Developing a Replay System (Part 72): An Unusual Communication (I)
What we create today will be difficult to understand. Therefore, in this article I will only talk about the initial stage. Please read this article carefully, it is an important prerequisite before we proceed to the next step. The purpose of this material is purely didactic as we will only study and master the presented concepts, without practical application.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 12): Newton Polynomial
Newton’s polynomial, which creates quadratic equations from a set of a few points, is an archaic but interesting approach at looking at a time series. In this article we try to explore what aspects could be of use to traders from this approach as well as address its limitations.
Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 16): New class system
We need to organize our work better. The code is growing, and if this is not done now, then it will become impossible. Let's divide and conquer. MQL5 allows the use of classes which will assist in implementing this task, but for this we need to have some knowledge about classes. Probably the thing that confuses beginners the most is inheritance. In this article, we will look at how to use these mechanisms in a practical and simple way.
All about Automated Trading Championship: Registration
This article comprises useful materials that will help you learn more about the procedure of registration for participation in the Automated Trading Championship.
Overcoming The Limitation of Machine Learning (Part 7): Automatic Strategy Selection
This article demonstrates how to automatically identify potentially profitable trading strategies using MetaTrader 5. White-box solutions, powered by unsupervised matrix factorization, are faster to configure, more interpretable, and provide clear guidance on which strategies to retain. Black-box solutions, while more time-consuming, are better suited for complex market conditions that white-box approaches may not capture. Join us as we discuss how our trading strategies can help us carefully identify profitable strategies under any circumstance.
From Basic to Intermediate: Recursion
In this article we will look at a very interesting and quite challenging programming concept, although it should be treated with great caution, as its misuse or misunderstanding can turn relatively simple programs into something unnecessarily complex. But when used correctly and adapted perfectly to equally suitable situations, recursion becomes an excellent ally in solving problems that would otherwise be much more laborious and time-consuming. The materials presented here are intended for educational purposes only. Under no circumstances should the application be viewed for any purpose other than to learn and master the concepts presented.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 63): Using Patterns of DeMarker and Envelope Channels
The DeMarker Oscillator and the Envelope indicator are momentum and support/resistance tools that can be paired when developing an Expert Advisor. We therefore examine on a pattern by pattern basis what could be of use and what potentially avoid. We are using, as always, a wizard assembled Expert Advisor together with the Patterns-Usage functions that are built into the Expert Signal Class.
Resampling techniques for prediction and classification assessment in MQL5
In this article, we will explore and implement, methods for assessing model quality that utilize a single dataset as both training and validation sets.
Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC)
The article discusses the non-parametric HSIC (Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion) statistical test designed to identify linear and non-linear dependencies in data. Implementations of two algorithms for calculating HSIC in the MQL5 language are proposed: the exact permutation test and the gamma approximation. The method efficiency is demonstrated on synthetic data modeling a non-linear relationship between features and the target variable.
Population optimization algorithms: Resistance to getting stuck in local extrema (Part II)
We continue our experiment that aims to examine the behavior of population optimization algorithms in the context of their ability to efficiently escape local minima when population diversity is low and reach global maxima. Research results are provided.
Adaptive Social Behavior Optimization (ASBO): Schwefel, Box-Muller Method
This article provides a fascinating insight into the world of social behavior in living organisms and its influence on the creation of a new mathematical model - ASBO (Adaptive Social Behavior Optimization). We will examine how the principles of leadership, neighborhood, and cooperation observed in living societies inspire the development of innovative optimization algorithms.
Overcoming The Limitation of Machine Learning (Part 3): A Fresh Perspective on Irreducible Error
This article takes a fresh perspective on a hidden, geometric source of error that quietly shapes every prediction your models make. By rethinking how we measure and apply machine learning forecasts in trading, we reveal how this overlooked perspective can unlock sharper decisions, stronger returns, and a more intelligent way to work with models we thought we already understood.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 55): SAC with Prioritized Experience Replay
Replay buffers in Reinforcement Learning are particularly important with off-policy algorithms like DQN or SAC. This then puts the spotlight on the sampling process of this memory-buffer. While default options with SAC, for instance, use random selection from this buffer, Prioritized Experience Replay buffers fine tune this by sampling from the buffer based on a TD-score. We review the importance of Reinforcement Learning, and, as always, examine just this hypothesis (not the cross-validation) in a wizard assembled Expert Advisor.
Overcoming The Limitation of Machine Learning (Part 1): Lack of Interoperable Metrics
There is a powerful and pervasive force quietly corrupting the collective efforts of our community to build reliable trading strategies that employ AI in any shape or form. This article establishes that part of the problems we face, are rooted in blind adherence to "best practices". By furnishing the reader with simple real-world market-based evidence, we will reason to the reader why we must refrain from such conduct, and rather adopt domain-bound best practices if our community should stand any chance of recovering the latent potential of AI.
Self Optimizing Expert Advisors in MQL5 (Part 12): Building Linear Classifiers Using Matrix Factorization
This article explores the powerful role of matrix factorization in algorithmic trading, specifically within MQL5 applications. From regression models to multi-target classifiers, we walk through practical examples that demonstrate how easily these techniques can be integrated using built-in MQL5 functions. Whether you're predicting price direction or modeling indicator behavior, this guide lays a strong foundation for building intelligent trading systems using matrix methods.
Capital management in trading and the trader's home accounting program with a database
How can a trader manage capital? How can a trader and investor keep track of expenses, income, assets, and liabilities? I am not just going to introduce you to accounting software; I am going to show you a tool that might become your reliable financial navigator in the stormy sea of trading.
Overcoming The Limitation of Machine Learning (Part 9): Correlation-Based Feature Learning in Self-Supervised Finance
Self-supervised learning is a powerful paradigm of statistical learning that searches for supervisory signals generated from the observations themselves. This approach reframes challenging unsupervised learning problems into more familiar supervised ones. This technology has overlooked applications for our objective as a community of algorithmic traders. Our discussion, therefore, aims to give the reader an approachable bridge into the open research area of self-supervised learning and offers practical applications that provide robust and reliable statistical models of financial markets without overfitting to small datasets.
The MQL5 Standard Library Explorer (Part 11): How to Build a Matrix-Based Market Structure Indicator in MQL5
Learn to engineer an MQL5 indicator that converts trend, momentum, and volatility into a single raw score using a matrix.mqh (ALGLIB). The article covers a separate‑window oscillator to validate the core mathematics, then a main‑chart indicator that plots non‑repainting buy/sell arrows when the score crosses user‑defined thresholds. An optional long‑term EMA filter, a minimum‑bar cooldown, and built‑in alerts make the tool practical for live trading.
Neural Networks in Trading: Memory Augmented Context-Aware Learning for Cryptocurrency Markets (Final Part)
The MacroHFT framework for high-frequency cryptocurrency trading uses context-aware reinforcement learning and memory to adapt to dynamic market conditions. At the end of this article, we will test the implemented approaches on real historical data to assess their effectiveness.
Neural Networks in Trading: Piecewise Linear Representation of Time Series
This article is somewhat different from my earlier publications. In this article, we will talk about an alternative representation of time series. Piecewise linear representation of time series is a method of approximating a time series using linear functions over small intervals.
Neural networks made easy (Part 61): Optimism issue in offline reinforcement learning
During the offline learning, we optimize the Agent's policy based on the training sample data. The resulting strategy gives the Agent confidence in its actions. However, such optimism is not always justified and can cause increased risks during the model operation. Today we will look at one of the methods to reduce these risks.
Forecasting exchange rates using classic machine learning methods: Logit and Probit models
In the article, an attempt is made to build a trading EA for predicting exchange rate quotes. The algorithm is based on classical classification models - logistic and probit regression. The likelihood ratio criterion is used as a filter for trading signals.
The MQL5 Standard Library Explorer (Part 10): Polynomial Regression Channel
Today, we explore another component of ALGLIB, leveraging its mathematical capabilities to develop a Polynomial Regression Channel indicator. By the end of this discussion, you will gain practical insights into indicator development using the MQL5 Standard Library, along with a fully functional, mathematically driven indicator source code.
Reimagining Classic Strategies (Part 14): High Probability Setups
High probability Setups are well known in our trading community, but regrettably they are not well-defined. In this article, we will aim to find an empirical and algorithmic way of defining exactly what is a high probability setup, identifying and exploiting them. By using Gradient Boosting Trees, we demonstrated how the reader can improve the performance of an arbitrary trading strategy and better communicate the exact job to be done to our computer in a more meaningful and explicit manner.
CSV Data Analysis (Part 3): Engineering a Python Analytics Pipeline for MetaTrader 5 CSV Exports
MetaTrader 5 provides rich performance data but limited structural analysis. This article shows how to export results to CSV from MQL5 and build five Python visualizations that expose cross-asset parameter consistency, the lag‑versus‑noise trade-off, walk‑forward decay, drawdown depth and duration, and intraday hour‑by‑day clusters. A unified automation module runs the full pipeline on any new export to deliver repeatable diagnostics.
Developing a Replay System (Part 47): Chart Trade Project (VI)
Finally, our Chart Trade indicator starts interacting with the EA, allowing information to be transferred interactively. Therefore, in this article, we will improve the indicator, making it functional enough to be used together with any EA. This will allow us to access the Chart Trade indicator and work with it as if it were actually connected with an EA. But we will do it in a much more interesting way than before.
From Basic to Intermediate: Array (II)
In this article, we will look at what a dynamic array and a static array are. Is there a difference between using one or the other? Or are they always the same? When should you use one and when the other type? And what about constant arrays? We will try to understand what they are designed for and consider the risks of not initializing all the values in the array.
Neural Networks in Trading: A Cross-Domain Time Series Forecasting Framework (TimeFound)
In this article, we build the core of the TimeFound intelligent model step by step, adapting it to real-world time series forecasting tasks. If you are interested in the practical implementation of neural network patching algorithms in MQL5, you have come to the right place.
Analyzing binary code of prices on the exchange (Part II): Converting to BIP39 and writing GPT model
Continuing tries to decipher price movements... What about linguistic analysis of the "market dictionary" that we get by converting the binary price code to BIP39? In this article, we will delve into an innovative approach to exchange data analysis and consider how modern natural language processing techniques can be applied to the market language.
Developing a Replay System (Part 62): Playing the service (III)
In this article, we will begin to address the issue of tick excess that can impact application performance when using real data. This excess often interferes with the correct timing required to construct a one-minute bar in the appropriate window.
Biological neuron for forecasting financial time series
We will build a biologically correct system of neurons for time series forecasting. The introduction of a plasma-like environment into the neural network architecture creates a kind of "collective intelligence," where each neuron influences the system's operation not only through direct connections, but also through long-range electromagnetic interactions. Let's see how the neural brain modeling system will perform in the market.
Building a Trade Analytics System (Part 1): Foundation and System Architecture
We design a simple external trade analytics pipeline for MetaTrader 5 and implement its backend in Python with Flask and SQLite. The article defines the architecture, data model, and versioned API, and shows how to configure the environment, initialize the database, and run the server locally. As a result, you get a clean base to capture closed-trade records from MetaTrader 5 and store them for later analysis.