Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD - page 12

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.04 14:50

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Non-Farm Employment Change and 68 pips price movement

2016-03-04 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 172K
  • forecast data is 195K
  • actual data is 242K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 242,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in health care and social assistance, retail trade, food services and drinking places, and private educational services. Job losses continued in mining."

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EURUSD M5: 68 pips price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news event :



 

This is interesting situation for NFP for now - the price broke 200 period SMA and 100 period SMA to below made 68 pips, after that - price was bounced from 1.0902 support level for breaking 200 SMA/100 SMA to above with the other 115 pips:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.05 07:47

Forex Weekly Outlook March 7-11 (based on the article)

Haruhiko Kuroda and Stephen Poloz speak, rate decision in Canada, New Zealand and the Eurozone and Employment data in the US and Canada. These are the main events on Forex calendar.

  1. Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Monday, 15:40. BOE Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks in Tokyo. Last week Kuroda said the central bank is not seeing another rate cut after introducing a negative rate in February. The effects of the new monetary policy are starting to show and will help the BOJ to achieve its 2% inflation goal approximately in the first half of 2017. Since the BOJ’s rate cut in January, some banks started cutting mortgage rates while also reducing deposit rates. Market volatility is expected.
  2. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 15:00. The Bank of Canada maintained its interest rate at 0.5% in January, judging that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate. The central bank cut rates twice in 2015 in order to boost the economy. Analysts do not rule out another cut this month, although the bank may not be in a hurry to cut rates before the federal budget is released. The BoC expects Canada’s economy to expand by 1.5% this year and 2.5% in 2017.
  3. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30. US crude inventories edged up by 10.4 million barrels to a record high 518 million last week. The reading almost tripled the 3.6 million-barrel increase projected by analysts. Oil prices declined on the data but recuperated modestly higher from Tuesday’s settlement. Economists expect prices to rise gradually over the course of the year. Investors expect prices will rise hoping OPEC will convince its members to cut production.
  4. New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 20:30. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 2.5% in January, after December’s rate cut.  The decision was in line with market forecast. Concerns about global economic strength in China and emerging markets downgraded inflation expectations. Furthermore, domestic economy weakened during the first half of 2015 driven by the lower terms of trade. However, growth is expected to rise in 2016 amid strong net immigration, tourism, a solid pipeline of construction activity, and the lift in business and consumer confidence.
  5. Eurozone rate decision: Thursday. 12:45. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled the bank may ease its monetary policy further in March amid rising concerns over the weakening of global economic growth causing volatility in financial markets. Draghi said the measures the bank announced in December were drastic but circumstances had changed since then and that there was “no limit” to action within its mandate. The slide in oil prices the weakening in China and commodity prices will keep the ECB busy in the coming months.
  6. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of US Jobless claims unexpectedly increased by 6000 claims last week, reaching 278,000. Analysts forecasted claims will increase by 271,000 last week. However, the underlying trend remains robust. The four-week moving average of claims dropped 1,750 to 270,250 last week, the lowest level since late November. The claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid rose 3,000 to 2.26 million. Analysts expect the number of new claims will reach 272,000 this week.
  7. Stephen Poloz speaks: Thursday, 21:15 BOC Governor Stephen Poloz will speak in Ottawa. Stephen Poloz, said in January that there is no simple solution to the oil price plunge and the continuing collapse in commodity prices. The economy will heal itself but it will be a  painful process which will weigh on Canadians, despite the BOC easing measures that can help buffer those effects. Poloz expects the Lonnie to remain weak exactly as it had been in early 2002 when oil prices plunged to around US$25 per barrel.
  8. Canadian employment data: Friday, 13:30. Canada’s employment market contracted 5,700 jobs in January while the jobless rate edged up 0.1% to 7.2%. The main losses occurred in oil-producing regions as oil prices continued to plunge but its effects filtered to other industries. Alberta lost nearly 22,000 full-time jobs while almost 12,000 part-time positions were created, indicating there were not enough full time positions. Ontario was the only province to see job growth, with 20,000 new positions created in January. The Canadian economy is expected to add 10,200 jobs while the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain at 7.2%
  9. US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 15:00. Consumer sentiment dropped in February to a four-month low of 90.7 after posting 92.3 in January amid declines in stock prices and weaker global conditions. The current conditions section fell to a three-month low of 105.8 from 106.4 Nonetheless, there was a 45% increase in the number of households reporting that their financial situation had improved. The six months gauge declined to 81, the weakest since September, from 82.7.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.05 09:11

Week Ahead by Crédit Agricole (the article)


What we are watching:

  • EUR: "Next week’s ECB monetary policy announcement should prove sufficient in keeping EUR a sell on rallies."
  • CAD: "Given little scope of the BoC turning more dovish next week, the CAD is likely to remain supported."
  • NZD: "Regardless of softer growth and inflation conditions the RBNZ may refrain from easing further. As such the NZD may face upside risk."

 

EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 06.03 - 13.03: bullish trend near the reversal area to be started

Daily price is on primary bullish market condition with the secondary ranging: the price is located above Ichimoku cloud within the following key reversal support/resistance lines:

  • 1.1067 resistance level located above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
  • 1.0788 support level located near and below Ichimoku cloud on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend.

Chinkou Span line is near and above the price for the bullish trend to be continuing, and Absolute Strange indicator is evaluating the price movement as the secondary ranging condition.

If D1 price will break 1.0788 support level on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing with secondary ranging up to 1.0520 level as the next bearish target.
If D1 price will break 1.1067 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1067 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.0788 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish
Resistance
Support
1.10671.0788
1.1067
1.0788


SUMMARY : bullish

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.07 07:57

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: Ranging on reversal

Daily price is located within 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA waiting for the direction of the trend to be started.

  • "We are sticking to view wherein only a daily closing above 1.1005/10 would shift the current neutral EUR outlook to bullish (closing was 1.1000 last Friday)."
  • "That said, the undertone for this pair is positive and the odds for a sustained up-move in the coming days are rather high especially if we continue to hold above 1.0900."

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging trend to be continuing.  

  • If the price will break 1.1067 resistance level on close D1 bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
  • If price will break 1.0823 support on close daily bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.10671.0823
N/A1.0777


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0823 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1067 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.07 08:07

Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

GBP/USD: Ranging bearish

Daily price is located below 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA for the porimary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging: the price is ranging within 1.4247 resistance and 1.3835 support levels.

  • "We highlighted last Thursday (when spot was at 1.4085) that the corrective rebound could extend to 1.4230. This level was exceeded with a high of 1.4249 on Friday. With no sign of weakness just yet, the current recovery could extend further to 1.4400 (1.4300 is a strong resistance)."
  • "Only a move back below 1.4050 would indicate that the prevalent upward pressure has eased. Overall, the current movement is reminiscent of the price action in early February where the corrective rebound extended to 1.4672 before topping out."

RSI indicator is estimating the bearish trend to be continuing.  

  • If the price will break 1.4247 resistance level on close D1 bar so the local uptrend as the secondary rally will be started.
  • If price will break 1.3835 support on close daily bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.42471.3835
1.4667N/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.3835 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.4247 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.08 08:18

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and 11 pips range price movement

2016-03-08 02:42 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 63.29B
  • forecast data is 51.00B
  • actual data is 32.59B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.

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EURUSD M5: 11 pips range price movement by China Trade Balance news event :



 

Forecast for Tomorrow - levels for EUR/USD

EUR/USD: bullish ranging along bearish reversal levels. Intra-day price for this pair was crossed Ichimoku cloud to above for the reversal of the price movement to the primary bullish condition: price is ranging along Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart; Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging market condition; and Trend Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as the bullish in the near future.


  • if the price breaks 1.1067 resistance so the primary bullish trend will be continuing;
  • if the price breaks 1.0879 support level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started;
  • if not so the price will be moved within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.1067
1.0939
N/A
1.0879
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.09 15:19

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: bearish ranging within 1.09/1.10 levels for direction. Intra-day H4 price is located near and below 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA for the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging within 23.6% Fibo resistance level at 1.1003 and 61.8% Fibo resistance level at 1.0914.

  • "The outlook is still viewed as neutral and as mentioned in recent updates, only a strong daily closing above 1.1005/10 would indicate that EUR is ready to move higher."
  • "In the meanwhile, this pair is expected to trade sideways with 1.0900 and 1.1100 acting as key levels."

RSI indicator is estimating the bearish trend to be continuing.  

  • If the price will break 1.1003 resistance level on close H4 bar so the reversal of intra-day price movement from the primary bearish to the bullish market condition will be started.
  • If price will break 1.0914 support to below so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.10031.0941
1.10571.0914


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0914 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1003 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bearish

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