Press review - page 614

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (based on the article)

XAU/USD - "Gold prices are taking a hit as we move towards the close of this week, currently down -1.89% so far on the day and -2.35% from the high set just ahead of yesterday’s ECB rate decision. While Gold prices held support fairly well through the Fed’s rate hike on Wednesday, the ECB meeting the following morning produced considerable US Dollar strength as the ECB announced stimulus-taper in a very dovish manner. As rate expectations out of Europe fell, the Dollar ran-higher and this provided a bit of pressure to Gold prices through the latter-portion of Thursday trade. It was shortly after the US open this morning that the selling really got underway, however, and Gold fell down to a fresh 2018 low, finding a bit of support just north of $1,275."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)

Crude Oil - "OPEC’s 174th ordinary meeting is set to take place on June 22nd with the JMMC scheduled to meet the day before, while OPEC/non-OPEC ministers are due to meet on the 23rd. As we head to the meeting, expectations are for a relaxing of the current oil supply quota’s, which has been increasingly suggested by oil kingpins Saudi Arabia and Russia that the supply switch has been turned on. Both Saudi Arabia and Russia look to maintain market stability amid possible supply shocks from rapidly declining production from Venezuela and potential production losses from Iran (following US withdrawal from nuclear deal), while demand growth remains robust as evidenced by reports from the EIA, IEA and OPEC. Additionally, compliance among OPEC members is over 160%, largely due to declining Venezuelan production."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dax Index (based on the article)

Dax Index - "On Thursday, the ECB sent the euro tumbling and DAX sharply higher with their cautious stance towards removal of stimulus. With a dovish central bank Euro-zone stocks saw significant bids across the board. Looking ahead to next week, Draghi will be speaking on Monday-Wednesday, but with the ECB just behind us his words may mean little to markets. The ECB-fueled rally pushed the DAX up to a trend-line running down off the record high and near the May peak. This may keep momentum capped in the near-term, with choppy trading to develop as the market digests Thursday’s move. The most substantial form of support can be found via the trend-line rising up from the March low."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

[Sergey Golubev]

Facebook share - daily bullish breakout (based on the article)

• "Facebook is up 30% in the last three months. Of the eight Marketocracy managers who own Facebook, only Wayne Himelsein was willing to buy Facebook at current prices. Since no one is selling the stock, the consensus seems to be that Facebook is moderately undervalued right now. John Archer explains. John first bought Facebook for his TAB fund in November 2016 at $122. He increased his position by 50% in July 2017 at $163. Two months later he increased his position by 66% paying $170. At $196, Facebook is 6% of his TAB fund."
• "Ken Kam: All of your Facebook purchases are now solidly profitable. You are not buying Facebook at $196, but you aren't selling it either. What do you think is "fair value" for Facebook?"
• "John Archer: I believe Facebook's current fair value range is between $200 and $250 based on a discounted cash flow model."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with the following custom indicator:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Dollar Index - weekly ranging near bullish reversal; 95.14 is the key (based on the article)

• "Last Week's FOMC policy meeting saw interest rate expectations shift as markets priced in a fourth rate hike this year- near-term bullish for the USD. The Dollar Index posted an outside weekly reversal through confluence resistance with the rally stretching into the 200-week moving average, now at ~95. A newly identified ascending pitchfork formation extending off the 2017 and 2018 lows also has price testing the upper 50-line into the start of the week."
• "The Dollar is testing near-term resistance here and while we could see some pullback in price, the broader focus is on a hold above the 93.89-94.20 pivot zone. A breach higher from here targets 96.04/35 backed by the median-line confluence just above the 97-handle. A break below last week’s low targets the median-line of the newly added formation around ~92.90s with critical support / bullish invalidation steady at the yearly open / 52-week moving average at 92.28/45. From a trading standpoint, I’ll favor fading weakness while above 93.90."

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The chart was made on W1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Crypto News - Bitcoin: daily bearish ranging, 6,826/6,131 are the key (based on the article)

Daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart: the price is on ranging within 6,826/6,131 support/resistance levels for the bearish trend to be continuing or to the secondary rally to be started.

• "Lloyd Blankfein, chief executive officer of the investment banking giant Goldman Sachs, said he is not into cryptocurrencies and was at a loss to explain why they should be successful as an asset class. In an interview at the Economic Club of New York, Blankfein said, "But if it [cryptocurrency] did work, I will be able to explain in hindsight why it did." He said cryptocurrencies were not "a systemic issue" for now and hence he was "not really" worried about it. Blankfein said it was simply arrogant to say cryptocurrencies cannot be successful, just because they were uncomfortable and unfamiliar."
• "Goldman Sachs is also a leading investor in the crypto startup, Circle, which is reportedly seeking a federal banking license and plans to register as a brokerage with the Securities and Exchange Commission."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Quick ZigZag plus DiNapoli - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• GMMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After 

• The main AscTrend thread is this one.
• Asctrend indicator in depth 
• ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
• Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2018-06-20 23:45 GMT | [NZD - GDP]

• past data is 0.6%
• forecast data is 0.5%
• actual data is 0.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

• "Economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), was up 0.5 percent in the March 2018 quarter. Growth eased slightly after increases of 0.6 percent each in the previous two quarters. GDP grew 2.7 percent over the year ended March 2018."
• "The service industries were up 0.6 percent in the March 2018 quarter, down from a 1.1 percent increase in the December 2017 quarter. An increase in manufacturing was offset by a fall in construction activity, resulting in a flat quarter for the goods-producing industries. The primary industries were up 0.6 percent, rebounding slightly from a 2.6 percent fall in the previous quarter."

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NZD/USD: range price movement by New Zealand Gross Domestic Product news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install 

[Sergey Golubev]

Crude Oil - daily ranging inside Ichimoku cloud for direction (based on the article)

Daily price broke the first Senkou Span line of Ichimoku cloud for the ranging market condition: the price is ranging within 77.05 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed and 72.44 support level for the daily bearish reversal.

• "The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will be holding its biannual meeting this week in Vienna, Austria on Friday morning. The following day it will hold a joint OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting with the petroleum exporting countries that joined in its 2016 production cut deal – Russia chief among them. Since the group began implementing production cuts in January 2017, the oil market has changed significantly. The oil glut has largely resolved, prices have risen, some countries are struggling to produce enough oil to meet their allocations and new sanctions on the Iranian oil industry threaten to take more barrels off the market in the near future."
• "As a result, OPEC and its partners (OPEC+) are considering increasing oil production. The meeting promises to be controversial as some members want to keep prices high and production low, while others are pushing for significant increases in production to meet rising global demand. OPEC+ has three realistic options. It could (1) decide to leave production unchanged, (2) keep the overall production ceiling unchanged while allowing some members with spare capacity to exceed their country-specific numbers or (3) officially increase oil production allocations."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - daily bearish ranging within 1.1851/1.1507 waiting for direction (based on the article)

• "Last week, EUR/USD traded relatively in-line with our tempered expectations – the euro chopped around with little net effect for the week as the ECB-driven move from the Thursday before took time to digest. Overall, a second test of significant support held this past week, keeping sellers at bay for the time-being. Will one side or the other win-out in the days ahead, or will it be another week-long bout of choppy price action? The thinking in this corner is that there will be a little more upside, but it may not be easy, so a continuation of last week's wobbly price action will be unsurprising."
• "With a bit more strength, the euro will quickly find itself contending with the trend-line running lower from a swing-high in April passing over the high from the ECB-day. This could be enough to put a cap on a bounce and turn the euro back towards another test of support. Should we see a clean closing bar break of 11508, look for an acceleration in selling."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• iBBFill - indicator for MetaTrader 5 

[Sergey Golubev]

Crypto News - Bitcoin: daily bearish breakdown; 6,022 is the key (based on the article)

• "The digital currency dropped to as little as $5,785.43 by 16:00 UTC (12:00 p.m. EST), according to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (BPI). At this point, Bitcoin was down roughly 5.3% over the last 24 hours and was trading at its lowest since November 2017, additional BPI figures show."
• "Bitcoin has been suffering a gradual, downward trend for the last several months, losing roughly more than two-thirds of its value since hitting an all-time high late last year."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• iBBFill - indicator for MetaTrader 5