Press review - page 667

[Sergey Golubev]

Fed Announces Emergency Rate Cut In Response To Coronavirus (based on the article)

• "Even with the next monetary policy meeting just two weeks away, the Federal Reserve announced a surprise move to enact an emergency interest rate cut on Tuesday in response to the economic risks posed by the coronavirus outbreak. The Fed announced that it has decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 1 to 1-1/4 percent."

Dollar Index daily chart by Metatrader 5

• "In the accompanying statement, the Fed said the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong but noted the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity."
  

Dow Jones Index daily chart by Metatrader 5

• "The emergency rate cut, the first since the financial crisis, also came after President Donald Trump ramped up pressure on the Fed to lower rates".
• "Our Federal Reserve has us paying higher rates than many others, when we should be paying less," Trump said in a post on Twitter. "Tough on our exporters and puts the USA at a competitive disadvantage".
• "The unanimous decision to cut rates was widely expected to be announced after the Fed's next monetary policy meeting on March 17-18".

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5
  

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Overnight Rate and BOC Rate Statement

2020-03-04 15:00 GMT | [CAD - BoC Overnight Rate]

• past data is 1.75%
• forecast data is 1.25%
• actual data is 1.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - BoC Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.

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From official report :

• "The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to 1 ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 ½ percent and the deposit rate is 1 percent. While Canada’s economy has been operating close to potential with inflation on target, the COVID-19 virus is a material negative shock to the Canadian and global outlooks, and monetary and fiscal authorities are responding. Before the outbreak, the global economy was showing signs of stabilizing, as the Bank had projected in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). However, COVID-19 represents a significant health threat to people in a growing number of countries. In consequence, business activity in some regions has fallen sharply and supply chains have been disrupted. This has pulled down commodity prices and the Canadian dollar has depreciated. Global markets are reacting to the spread of the virus by repricing risk across a broad set of assets, making financial conditions less accommodative. It is likely that as the virus spreads, business and consumer confidence will deteriorate, further depressing activity."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by BoC Overnight Rate news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ChandeQStick - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
  
• How to install

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

2020-03-04 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 55.5
• forecast data is 54.9
• actual data is 57.3 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

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From official report :

• "The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The NMI® registered 57.3 percent, which is 1.8 percentage points higher than the January reading of 55.5 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 57.8 percent, 3.1 percentage points lower than the January reading of 60.9 percent, reflecting growth for the 127th consecutive month. The New Orders Index registered 63.1 percent; 6.9 percentage points higher than the reading of 56.2 percent in January. The Employment Index increased 2.5 percentage points in February to 55.6 percent from the January reading of 53.1 percent. The Prices Index reading of 50.8 is 4.7 percentage points lower than the January’s 55.5 percent, indicating that prices increased in February for the 33rd consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector reflected continued growth in February. Most respondents are concerned about the coronavirus and its supply chain impact. They also continue to have difficulty with labor resources. They do remain positive about business conditions and the overall economy."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

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GBP/USD: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

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USD/JPY: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

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The charts were made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CNH, Brent Crude Oil and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2020-03-06 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 273K
• forecast data is 175K
• actual data is 273K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

• "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 273,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, government, construction, professional and technical services, and financial activities."

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USD/CNH: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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Brent Crude Oil: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Crypto News - Bitcoin: daily/weekly ranging near the bearish reversal; 8,419 is the key for the bearish reversal to be started (based on the article)

• "Bitcoin has enjoyed some compelling gains lately, rising in value as the global asset markets respond to concerns surrounding the coronavirus. The digital currency’s strong, upward movement has stalled in the last few days, facing significant resistance, technical analysts claimed. However, this relative malaise will probably pass soon enough, according to several market observers."
• "The cryptocurrency has been trading between $9,000 and $9,200 since early yesterday morning, CoinDesk data shows. This period of calm came after bitcoin experienced a notable rally earlier in the week, climbing after it fell to nearly $8,400, additional CoinDesk figures reveal."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5
  
• Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

DAX Index - Daily Bearish Breakdown; 10,358 support is the key for the bearish trend to be continuing (based on the article)

• "Panic selling from the coronavirus has not only caused global equities to plunge but also darkened what was an already-gloomy outlook for the Eurozone. The region was beginning to show signs of stabilization, but the spread of the coronavirus has cut that recovery short and resurrected fears of another downturn in Europe. This comes after the region suffered from a politically-turbulent two years both internally and externally."
• "Germany and Italy – the first and third largest Eurozone economies, respectively – are expected to enter a technical recession this year (defined as consecutive quarters of contraction). The spread of Italian and German 10-year sovereign bond yields spiked over 30 percent and is now at its widest point since August 2019. This came as yields on the latter fell to a record-low amid market-wide risk aversion."
• "Since topping in mid-February, the German DAX equity index has plunged over 20 percent and is a hair away from the 2018-low at 10381.510 after it recorded its biggest one-day decline on record. Breaking this floor would open the door to testing the four-year low at 10085.480 where selling pressure may abate. However, a bearish overhang could continue pressuring the index to multi-year lows."

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The chart was made with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - daily bullish breakout; 1.1494 for the daily breakout to be continuing; 1.1095 is the daily resistance for the bearish reversal to be started (based on the article)

• "EUR/USD has fallen to around 1.1350 as the market mood improves after a market massacre on Monday. Optimism about US fiscal stimulus and other factors are pushing yields and the dollar higher."
• "EUR/USD extends the Asian retreat below the 1.1400 level into early European trading, as the US dollar recovery gathers steam across the board, with bears now targeting 1.1300 ahead of the Eurozone GDP release."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Laguerre - indicator for MetaTrader 5 (as a part of Laguerre scalping system)

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision and range price movement 

2020-03-11 07:00 GMT | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]

• past data is 0.75%
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight. The MPC cut the official bank rate by 0.50% to a target rate of 0.25% at an unscheduled emergency meeting.

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From official report :

• "The front line of combatting the challenges of Covid-19 comprises the extraordinary efforts of NHS health professionals, carers, and volunteers across the country, as well as the exceptional support by the FCO to UK citizens abroad.""At its special meeting ending on 10 March 2020, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to reduce Bank Rate by 50 basis points to 0.25%.  The MPC voted unanimously for the Bank of England to introduce a new Term Funding scheme with additional incentives for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (TFSME), financed by the issuance of central bank reserves. The MPC voted unanimously to maintain the stock of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £10 billion. The Committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of UK government bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £435 billion."
  

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GBP/USD: range price movement by BoE Interest Rate Decision news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

GOLD (XAU/USD) - why you should buy Gold now (based on the article)

• "Gold is known as the safe-haven asset, and whenever we see a meltdown in the equity markets or prospects of loose monetary policy, its price begins to explode to the upside. Currently, the gold price has a strong negative correlation with the equity markets meaning when the equity markets fall; investors pour money into gold and vice versa."
• "The fact is that the current sell-off in the global equity markets is only a start because there is a lot more to come. After all, the economic weakness isn’t fully baked into economic data, let alone in earnings. Thus, there is no better time to buy gold."
• "Going back to the monetary policy action and why there is serious potential for the gold price to increase; at present, traders and Wall Street are expecting further interest rate cuts from the Fed during their meeting next week. An interest rate cut of 50 basis points is the minimum that investors expect, and according to bigger banks like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, we can expect 75 basis points and a full percentage point."
  

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Chart was made on MT5 together with following indicators from CodeBase:

• MFCS Currency Correlation Chart - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bearish ranging within 39.68/31.26 support/resistance; 45.11 is the target for the bear market rally

2020-03-11 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is 0.8M
• forecast data is 2.0M
• actual data is 7.7M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 7.7 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5