Retail Control m/m reflects a change in the US retail sales in the so called control group in the reported month compared to the previous one. This group includes all US retailers, except for food, cars, construction materials and motor fuel.
These groups are excluded from the indicator calculation do to the high volatility of their prices. For example, prices for seasonal products increase in periods when they have to be imported from other countries or from other climatic zones. Cars are considered to be highly volatile for general retail sales because of the high price per unit. Therefore, even a small increase in the number of units sold leads to an increase in the monetary volume of retail sales. Construction materials are also excluded from the calculation due to seasonal characteristics: construction and renovation are traditionally more active in summer, and therefore retail sales grow at this time. Retail sales of motor fuel also increase in summer, when people start traveling by car across the country.
The control group is used as a measure of the "core" consumer spending and is applied in further PCE calculations. Since this is an auxiliary indicator, it indirectly characterizes the US inflation. So, it influences dollar quotes indirectly through PCE.
The chart of the entire available history of the "United States Retail Control m/m" macroeconomic indicator. The dashed line shows the forecast values of the economic indicator for the specified dates.
A significant deviation of a real value from a forecast one may cause a short-term strengthening or weakening of a national currency in the Forex market. The threshold values of the indicators signaling the approach of the critical state of the national (local) economy occupy a special place.
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