NAHB Housing Market Index is issued by US National Association of Home Builders. About 80% of the total number of new US homes are built annually by the members of this association.
The index is based on a monthly survey of 140,000 association members. Respondents are polled to evaluate market conditions for new home sales at the current moment and in the next six months, as well as prospective buyer traffic for new homes.
The first two series are evaluated as Good, Fair and Poor. The prospective buyer traffic is rated as High/Very High, Average, Low/Very Low. Based on the survey results, three separate diffusion indices are calculated by applying the following formula: (% positive estimates - % negative estimates + 100)/2. Then each index is adjusted for seasonal variations, because the housing market is sensitive to seasonal changes. NAHB uses average values of these series to calculate the total HMI.
The index is closely correlated with the Housing Starts index.
HMI can range between 0 and 100. Readings above 50 mean that most of Association members evaluate sales conditions as favorable. The index characterizes the intent of home buyers, so it can provide valuable information on the near-term US housing market state. Economists closely monitor the index to be able to evaluate prospects for the US housing sector. A sharp or unexpected change in the indicator values may cause a small short-term volatility of the dollar.
The chart of the entire available history of the "NAHB United States Housing Market Index" macroeconomic indicator. The dashed line shows the forecast values of the economic indicator for the specified dates.
A significant deviation of a real value from a forecast one may cause a short-term strengthening or weakening of a national currency in the Forex market. The threshold values of the indicators signaling the approach of the critical state of the national (local) economy occupy a special place.
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