University of Michigan United States Consumer Expectations

Country:
United States
USD, US dollar
Sector:
Consumer
Medium 83.8 73.9
78.8
Last release Importance Actual Forecast
Previous
83.8
83.8
Next release Actual Forecast
Previous
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University of Michigan Consumer Expectations demonstrate how US consumers estimate their financial and economic prospects for the next 12 months. The index is calculated monthly based on a telephone survey of at least 500 US households, which the University of Michigan conducts to calculate five different indices, including this one.

Respondents are polled to express their opinion on the following questions:

  • Whether respondents estimate their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now
  • Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse
  • - Whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression.

Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 4.1134 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.

The University of Michigan Consumer Expectations index allows evaluating how US households plan their life for the next few years. Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce includes it in the index of leading indicators, which is the confirmation of the index representativeness and importance.

Lower readings may be a consequence of unfavorable current conditions and also predict a decline in future consumer activity: people may begin to spend less and save more, thus withdrawing money from active economy. Higher readings indicate that people are confident in the economy health and suggest that the consumer activity will be preserved. This may affect US dollar quotes positively.

Last values:

actual data

forecast

The chart of the entire available history of the "University of Michigan United States Consumer Expectations" macroeconomic indicator. The dashed line shows the forecast values ​​of the economic indicator for the specified dates.

A significant deviation of a real value from a forecast one may cause a short-term strengthening or weakening of a national currency in the Forex market. The threshold values ​​of the indicators signaling the approach of the critical state of the national (local) economy occupy a special place.

Date (GMT)
Reference
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Jun 2021 prelim.
83.8
73.9
78.8
May 2021
78.8
77.6
77.6
May 2021 prelim.
77.6
84.6
82.7
Apr 2021
82.7
79.7
79.7
Apr 2021 prelim.
79.7
86.1
79.7
Mar 2021
79.7
77.5
77.5
Mar 2021 prelim.
77.5
65.1
70.7
Feb 2021
70.7
69.8
69.8
Feb 2021 prelim.
69.8
70.5
74.0
Jan 2021
74.0
73.8
73.8
Jan 2021 prelim.
73.8
78.8
74.6
Dec 2020
74.6
74.7
74.7
Dec 2020 prelim.
74.7
65.8
70.5
Nov 2020
70.5
71.3
71.3
Nov 2020 prelim.
71.3
71.5
79.2
Oct 2020
79.2
78.8
78.8
Oct 2020 prelim.
78.8
74.5
75.6
Sep 2020
75.6
73.3
73.3
Sep 2020 prelim.
73.3
72.6
68.5
Aug 2020
68.5
66.5
66.5
Aug 2020 prelim.
66.5
65.6
65.9
Jul 2020
65.9
66.2
66.2
Jul 2020 prelim.
66.2
74.0
72.3
Jun 2020
72.3
73.1
73.1
Jun 2020 prelim.
73.1
63.5
65.9
May 2020
65.9
67.7
67.7
May 2020 prelim.
67.7
67.0
70.1
Apr 2020
70.1
70.0
70.0
Apr 2020 prelim.
70.0
82.3
79.7
Mar 2020
79.7
85.3
85.3
Mar 2020 prelim.
85.3
89.0
92.1
Feb 2020
92.1
92.6
92.6
Feb 2020 prelim.
92.6
92.4
90.5
Jan 2020
90.5
88.3
88.3
Jan 2020 prelim.
88.3
85.4
88.9
Dec 2019
88.9
88.9
88.9
Dec 2019 prelim.
88.9
92.2
87.3
Nov 2019
87.3
85.9
85.9
Nov 2019 prelim.
85.9
84.7
84.2
Oct 2019
84.2
84.8
84.8
Oct 2019 prelim.
84.8
84.4
83.4
Sep 2019
83.4
82.4
82.4
Sep 2019 prelim.
82.4
77.0
79.9
Aug 2019
79.9
82.3
82.3
Aug 2019 prelim.
82.3
93.8
90.5
Jul 2019
90.5
90.1
90.1
Jul 2019 prelim.
90.1
82.6
89.3
Jun 2019
89.3
88.6
88.6
Jun 2019 prelim.
88.6
87.4
93.5
May 2019
93.5
96.0
96.0

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