University of Michigan United States Consumer Expectations

Country:
United States
USD, US dollar
Sector:
Consumer
Medium 86.1 90
88.1
Last release Importance Actual Forecast
Previous
90
86.1
Next release Actual Forecast
Previous
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University of Michigan Consumer Expectations demonstrate how US consumers estimate their financial and economic prospects for the next 12 months. The index is calculated monthly based on a telephone survey of at least 500 US households, which the University of Michigan conducts to calculate five different indices, including this one.

Respondents are polled to express their opinion on the following questions:

  • Whether respondents estimate their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now
  • Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse
  • - Whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression.

Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 4.1134 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.

The University of Michigan Consumer Expectations index allows evaluating how US households plan their life for the next few years. Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce includes it in the index of leading indicators, which is the confirmation of the index representativeness and importance.

Lower readings may be a consequence of unfavorable current conditions and also predict a decline in future consumer activity: people may begin to spend less and save more, thus withdrawing money from active economy. Higher readings indicate that people are confident in the economy health and suggest that the consumer activity will be preserved. This may affect US dollar quotes positively.

Last values:

actual data

forecast

The chart of the entire available history of the "University of Michigan United States Consumer Expectations" macroeconomic indicator. The dashed line shows the forecast values ​​of the economic indicator for the specified dates.

A significant deviation of a real value from a forecast one may cause a short-term strengthening or weakening of a national currency in the Forex market. The threshold values ​​of the indicators signaling the approach of the critical state of the national (local) economy occupy a special place.

Date (GMT)
Reference
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Dec 2018 prelim.
86.1
90
88.1
Nov 2018
88.1
90
88.7
Nov 2018 prelim.
88.7
89.9
89.3
Oct 2018
89.3
89.7
89.1
Oct 2018 prelim.
89.1
89.6
90.5
Sep 2018
90.5
89.5
91.1
Sep 2018 prelim.
91.1
89.4
87.1
Aug 2018
87.1
89.4
87.3
Aug 2018 prelim.
87.3
89.4
87.3
Jul 2018
87.3
89.4
86.4
Jul 2018 prelim.
86.4
89.3
86.3
Jun 2018
86.3
89.2
87.4
Jun 2018 prelim.
87.4
89.1
89.1
May 2018
89.1
88.9
89.5
May 2018 prelim.
89.5
87
88.4
Apr 2018
88.4
87
86.8
Apr 2018 prelim.
86.8
89.5
88.8
Mar 2018
88.8
90.9
88.6
Mar 2018 prelim.
88.6
90.6
90
Feb 2018
90
88.6
90.2
Feb 2018 prelim.
90.2
88.5
86.3
Jan 2018
86.3
85.8
84.8
Jan 2018 prelim.
84.8
84.2
84.3
Dec 2017
84.3
82.3
84.6
Dec 2017 prelim.
84.6
90.7
88.9
Nov 2017
88.9
90.7
87.6
Nov 2017 prelim.
87.6
90.1
90.5
Oct 2017
90.5
93
91.3
Oct 2017 prelim.
91.3
84.5
84.4
Sep 2017
84.4
86.1
83.4
Sep 2017 prelim.
83.4
90.8
87.7
Aug 2017
87.7
85.8
89
Aug 2017 prelim.
89
76.1
80.5
Jul 2017
80.5
80.2
Jul 2017 prelim.
80.2
83.9
Jun 2017
83.9
84.7
Jun 2017 prelim.
84.7
87.7
May 2017
87.7
88.1
May 2017 prelim.
88.1
87
Apr 2017
87
86.9
Apr 2017 prelim.
86.9
86.5
Mar 2017
86.5
86.7
Mar 2017 prelim.
86.7
86.5
Feb 2017
86.5
85.7
Feb 2017 prelim.
85.7
90.3
Jan 2017
90.3
88.9
Jan 2017 prelim.
88.9
89.5
Dec 2016
89.5
88.9
Dec 2016 prelim.
88.9
85.2
Nov 2016
85.2
82.5

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