MNI Chicago Business Barometer is a composite diffuse indicator, which reflects the business environment in Chicago in the specified month. The indicator is prepared by the non-profit organization Market News International Inc., one of the leading US providers of economic news and analysis, in cooperation with the Chicago branch of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
The Chicago Business Barometer is also known as Chicago PMI. It is calculated based on a survey of purchasing managers in the Chicagoland area. Respondents are polled to assess production volume, new orders, backlogs, unemployment and supplies in their firms. Instead of providing a quantitative measure, respondents provide a relative assessment of changes in the currents month: whether the situation has improved, worsened or has not changed.
The sample of respondents includes representatives of large industrial and service companies of the region. Despite the fact that the index is only calculated for the Chicago region, its data are clearly correlated with the common American indices. So, it is interpreted as a leading indicator of the US economy state.
Readings above 50 point to improvement of the business climate in the region, and readings below 50 indicate negative changes. Duties of purchasing managers imply early access to information about changes in the economic situation. Therefore, PMI growth allows forecasting near- and medium-term production growth.
Higher than expected readings are seen as positive for the US dollar.
The chart of the entire available history of the "MNI Chicago Business Barometer" macroeconomic indicator. The dashed line shows the forecast values of the economic indicator for the specified dates.
A significant deviation of a real value from a forecast one may cause a short-term strengthening or weakening of a national currency in the Forex market. The threshold values of the indicators signaling the approach of the critical state of the national (local) economy occupy a special place.
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