Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) of Chicago National Activity Index

Country:
United States
USD, US dollar
Sector:
Business
Low 0.13 0.13
0.48
Last release Importance Actual Forecast
Previous
0.02
0.13
Next release Actual Forecast
Previous
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Chicago Fed National Activity Index provides monthly evaluation of the overall economic activity and inflationary pressure in the United States. It is calculated as a weighted average composite index, which combines 85 separate indicators of the national economy.

Economic indicators from the following four major categories are used for CFNAI calculation:

  • Production and income (23 data series)
  • Employment, unemployment, working hours (24 data series)
  • Private consumption and households (15 data series)
  • Sales, orders and inventories (23 data series)

These data series demonstrate various aspects of national economic activity. For convenience, all data are adjusted for inflation.

CFNAI is the only indicator, which reflects the combined movement of all 85 indicators. The individual weights of components are determined based on the historical value of the contribution of each indicator to the general combined movement of the index.

The index values range between +1 and -1, and the average value is 0. Since the economic activity tends to grow, the positive deviation of the average value indicates a growing trend, and a negative value points to a downtrend.

Economists use the indicator to measure the overall economic activity in the country. An increase in all components except for some of labor market indicators (unemployment), indicates the expansion of the national economy. Also, growth in production, wages, consumer spending and other national indicators allows evaluating current and near-term inflation.

Chicago Fed updates the index data monthly. It publishes a collection of tables and graphs, as well as explanations to them. The interpretation of the index depends on how individual components of the index move relative to each other. In general, higher CFNAI values have a better effect on dollar quotes.

Last values:

actual data

forecast

The chart of the entire available history of the "Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) of Chicago National Activity Index" macroeconomic indicator. The dashed line shows the forecast values ​​of the economic indicator for the specified dates.

A significant deviation of a real value from a forecast one may cause a short-term strengthening or weakening of a national currency in the Forex market. The threshold values ​​of the indicators signaling the approach of the critical state of the national (local) economy occupy a special place.

Date (GMT)
Reference
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Jul 2018
0.13
0.13
0.48
Jun 2018
0.43
0.18
-0.45
May 2018
-0.15
0.09
0.42
Apr 2018
0.34
0.14
0.32
Mar 2018
0.1
0.41
0.98
Feb 2018
0.88
0.19
0.02
Jan 2018
0.12
0.15
0.14
Dec 2017
0.27
0.44
0.11
Nov 2017
0.15
0.09
0.76
Oct 2017
0.65
-0.03
0.36
Sep 2017
0.17
0.45
-0.37
Aug 2017
-0.31
-0.2
0.03
Jul 2017
-0.01
0.2
0.16
Jun 2017
0.13
0.1
-0.3
May 2017
-0.26
0.1
0.57
Apr 2017
0.49
-0.1
0.07
Mar 2017
0.08
0.27
Feb 2017
0.34
-0.02
Jan 2017
-0.05
0.18
Dec 2016
0.14
-0.33
Nov 2016
-0.27
-0.05
Oct 2016
-0.08
-0.23
Sep 2016
-0.14
-0.72
Aug 2016
-0.55
0.24
Jul 2016
0.27
0.05
Jun 2016
0.16
-0.56
May 2016
-0.51
0.05
Apr 2016
0.1
-0.55
Mar 2016
-0.44
-0.38
Feb 2016
-0.29
0.41
Jan 2016
0.28
-0.34
Dec 2015
-0.22
-0.36
Nov 2015
-0.3
-0.17
Oct 2015
-0.04
-0.37
Sep 2015
-0.37
-0.39
Aug 2015
-0.41
0.51
Jul 2015
0.34
-0.07
Jun 2015
0.08
-0.17
May 2015
-0.17
-0.19
Apr 2015
-0.15
-0.36
Mar 2015
-0.42
-0.11
Feb 2015
-0.18
0.13
Jan 2015
0.13
-0.05
Dec 2014
-0.07
0.73
Nov 2014
0.92
0.14
Oct 2014
0.31
0.47
Sep 2014
0.29
-0.21
Aug 2014
-0.25
0.39
Jul 2014
0.26
0.12
Jun 2014
0.21
0.21

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