Sweden's Business Confidence Index reflects the optimism of the country's companies regarding the current economic environment. The index is calculated monthly through an online survey conducted by the National Institute for Economic Research (NIER).
The National Institute interviews the managers of about 7,000 Swedish companies on a monthly basis. The sample includes companies with at least 100 employees. Companies are stratified by size and industry. Collecting all data from respondents takes approximately three weeks.
The weight of responses from a particular company depends on its size, i.e. the larger the company, the higher the weights assigned to its responses (with the exception of the manufacturing sector, in which weights are set based on the volume of production). These weights are updated every year according to the updated sample. The weighted responses are summarized and extrapolated as if all companies participated in the survey.
Companies evaluate the current situation in terms of orders, finished product inventories, expected production volumes and employment. The survey is qualitative in nature. It means that the respondents do not provide absolute figures, but assess the situation as better, worse, or no change.
The Business Confidence Index is one of the key indicators characterizing the business environment and the general state of the country's economy. Readings above 100 indicate improving business conditions and positive sentiment in the Swedish business environment. Even if a value is below 100 but shows a considerable improvement from the previous period, the value can be seen as positive for the Swedish krona. Readings below 100 indicate a worsening situation.
The chart of the entire available history of the "Sweden Business Confidence" macroeconomic indicator. The dashed line shows the forecast values of the economic indicator for the specified dates.
A significant deviation of a real value from a forecast one may cause a short-term strengthening or weakening of a national currency in the Forex market. The threshold values of the indicators signaling the approach of the critical state of the national (local) economy occupy a special place.
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