Manufacturing Production y/y measures a change in the output of South African manufacturing companies in the reported month compared to the same month a year ago. The indicator covers all production sectors: mining business, industrial companies and suppliers of electricity, gas and water.
To calculate the indicator, Statistics South Africa conducts monthly surveys of about 3000 manufacturing companies. The statistical unit of the survey is a company defined as a legal unit or a combination of units that includes and directly controls all functions necessary to perform production activities. The sample is selected based on the list of companies registered as VAT and income tax payers.
During the survey, respondents provide data on their sales and inventories, based on which the company's output is calculated. Production index is the ratio of production output over the reported period and production over the base period which is equal to 100 (the base period is currently set to 2015). The year-over-year index version is not seasonally adjusted and thus it is considered to be more suitable for evaluating long-term trends.
The Manufacturing Production Index is one of the most important indicators of economic statistics for the country. Analysts use it to evaluate early changes in economic development, as well as to forecast South Africa' GDP. An index growth relative to the previous year may indicate an expansion of the economy and is seen as positive for the South African rand. Conversely, lower than expected values are seen as unfavorable and may adversely affect ZAR quotes.
The chart of the entire available history of the "South Africa Manufacturing Production y/y" macroeconomic indicator. The dashed line shows the forecast values of the economic indicator for the specified dates.
A significant deviation of a real value from a forecast one may cause a short-term strengthening or weakening of a national currency in the Forex market. The threshold values of the indicators signaling the approach of the critical state of the national (local) economy occupy a special place.
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