The Consumer Climate Index (CCI) of the Nuremberg market research company GfK is intended to reflect the propensity of private households to consume and is generally published at 8 a.m. on the penultimate day of the month under review.
To this end, GfK 2000 surveys representative selected individuals aged 14 and over on their income and consumer expectations for the next 12 months, their propensity to buy and their expectations of the overall economic situation. The Consumer Climate Indicator thus attempts to forecast the change in monthly private consumer spending on the basis of the sub-components. However, the index is quite susceptible to revision. The correlation to actual private consumer spending has also been weak in recent years. More interesting are the sub components, of which the propensity to buy has the greatest explanatory power for private consumer spending.
The GfK consumer climate index is regarded as a much-noticed indicator of economic development in Germany. It also serves to supplement other officially collected statistics such as EU consumer confidence. It is therefore of particular importance when forecasting economic developments. The advantage of the GfK consumer climate index lies in the monthly collection of data. This means that the resulting values are usually available more quickly than statistics published on a quarterly basis.
The consumer climate index measures the willingness of consumers to spend their money. Index growth therefore permits favourable economic expectations. The optimistic mood can be an early indicator for the growth of consumer activity and thus for the growth of inflation. A rising consumer climate is generally seen as positive for the euro.
The chart of the entire available history of the "GfK Germany Consumer Climate" macroeconomic indicator. The dashed line shows the forecast values of the economic indicator for the specified dates.
A significant deviation of a real value from a forecast one may cause a short-term strengthening or weakening of a national currency in the Forex market. The threshold values of the indicators signaling the approach of the critical state of the national (local) economy occupy a special place.
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