The level of new bank lending to consumers and businesses is an important component of one of the ECB's targets, the inflation. The new loans provide additional and different information than the money supply M3. The new loans granted by banks to consumers and enterprises are measured. This means, however, that the level of this figure is influenced by consumers and businesses and strongly depends on the economic circumstances of the respective parties: if the bank is prepared to grant a loan at all and on what terms; and if the customer has an investment reason and is prepared to accept the risk of a loan on the terms offered. Although the European Central Bank (ECB) can control interest rates and other measures such as the interest on the minimum reserve, sometimes this does not help to leverage lending and thus indirectly inflation.
An increase in this value or a value above expectations should normally stimulate the economy and the EUR.
The chart of the entire available history of the "European Central Bank (ECB) Private Sector Loans y/y" macroeconomic indicator. The dashed line shows the forecast values of the economic indicator for the specified dates.
A significant deviation of a real value from a forecast one may cause a short-term strengthening or weakening of a national currency in the Forex market. The threshold values of the indicators signaling the approach of the critical state of the national (local) economy occupy a special place.
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