European Union Consumer Price Expectations

Country:
European Union
EUR, Euro
Sector:
Consumer
Low 23 22.5
21.1
Last release Importance Actual Forecast
Previous
22
23
Next release Actual Forecast
Previous
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Since May 2003, the European Commission has been collecting direct quantitative information on consumer perceptions and expectations of inflation in the Euro zone, the European Union (EU) and the accession countries through its consumer survey. It is about consumers' opinions on inflation, which are relevant not only for policy purposes, but also because possible inflation values become available earlier and because they provide information on the expectations of economic agents. The normal consumer price index measures only current inflation, not future ones. While the subjective estimates data of more than 40,000 randomly selected consumers are biased according to education, age, income, region and gender, this error can to some extent be corrected mathematically, making the survey data indispensable for economic surveillance in the EU and for monitoring the economic prospects of Economic and Monetary Union and the economic development of the candidate countries. They are used for the half-yearly economic forecasts and for the analysis of cyclical developments (e.g. identification of turning points) and by several different Commission services, including the ECB and the OECD.

Surveys are collected in the first half of the month and published on the last day of the month. The possible answers are limited to 6 answers to questions on current and expected price developments: strong, moderate or slightly rising, steady, falling or do not know.

The impact of the published figures depends heavily on the current economic environment. Inflation that is too high could induce the ECB to raise interest rates, which in turn could lead to a rise in the currency. In difficult economic times, however, rising inflation could deepen a recession even further, which would depress the currency.

Last values:

actual data

forecast

The chart of the entire available history of the "European Union Consumer Price Expectations" macroeconomic indicator. The dashed line shows the forecast values ​​of the economic indicator for the specified dates.

A significant deviation of a real value from a forecast one may cause a short-term strengthening or weakening of a national currency in the Forex market. The threshold values ​​of the indicators signaling the approach of the critical state of the national (local) economy occupy a special place.

Date (GMT)
Reference
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Mar 2020
23
22.5
21.1
Feb 2020
21.1
22.8
20.7
Jan 2020
20.7
21.9
20.5
Dec 2019
20.5
18.2
19.4
Nov 2019
19.4
18
21.5
Oct 2019
21.5
19.5
Sep 2019
19.5
20.7
Aug 2019
20.7
20.6
Jul 2019
20.6
21.9
Jun 2019
21.9
23.2
May 2019
23.2
19.3
Apr 2019
15.7
17
Mar 2019
17
18
Feb 2019
18
15.5
Jan 2019
15.5
18.7
Dec 2018
18.6
21.1
Nov 2018
21.1
21.6
Oct 2018
21.6
20.1
Sep 2018
20.1
18.2
Aug 2018
18.2
18
Jul 2018
18
17.5
Jun 2018
17.5
17.5
May 2018
17.5
16.1
Apr 2018
16.1
16.1
Mar 2018
16.1
18
Feb 2018
18
19.6
Jan 2018
19.6
13.6
Dec 2017
13.6
16
Nov 2017
16
14.7
Oct 2017
14.7
14.2
Sep 2017
14.2
11.6
Aug 2017
11.6
11.7
Jul 2017
11.7
13
Jun 2017
13
12.8
May 2017
12.8
13.9
Apr 2017
13.9
15.3
Mar 2017
15.3
14.5
Feb 2017
14.5
14.5
Jan 2017
14.5
8.7
Dec 2016
8.8
6.3
Nov 2016
6.3
4.3
Oct 2016
4.3
4.7
Sep 2016
4.7
3.3
Aug 2016
3.3
3.7
Jul 2016
3.7
5.1
Jun 2016
5.1
3.4
May 2016
3.4
2.9
Apr 2016
2.9
2.1
Mar 2016
2.1
3.7
Feb 2016
3.7
2.3

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