U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls - Forecast for March 2016 - General

Sergey Golubev 2021.03.05 15:43 #151

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Sergey Golubev, 2021.03.05 16:33

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CNH: United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2021-03-05 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

past data is 166K
forecast data is -137K
actual data is 379K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 379,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The labor market continued to reflect the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In February, most of the job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, with smaller gains in temporary help services, health care and social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Employment declined in state and local government education, construction, and mining."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

USD/CAD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2021.04.29 04:44 #152

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2021.04.29 06:17

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/CAD and USD/CNH: Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

2021-04-28 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

past data is 0.25%
forecast data is 0.25%
actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

==========

From official report :

"The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In addition, the Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses."

==========

Dollar Index: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

USD/CAD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2021.05.12 14:24 #153

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2021.05.12 16:20

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CAD, USD/CNH and CAC 40: United States Consumer Price Index (CPI)

2021-05-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core CPI]

past data is 0.6%
forecast data is 0.2%
actual data is 0.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy.

==========

From official report :

"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percentin April on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.6 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 4.2 percent before seasonal adjustment. This is the largest 12-month increase since a 4.9-percent increase for the period ending September 2008".

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USD/CAD: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news event

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USD/CNH: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news event

==========

CAC 40: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news event

CAC 40: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news event

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4
Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After

The main AscTrend thread is this one.
Asctrend indicator in depth
ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2021.06.15 14:00 #154

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2021.06.15 15:54

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, GBP/USD and USD/CNH: United States Retail Sales

2021-06-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

past data is 0.9%
forecast data is 0.5%
actual data is -1.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From marketwatch article :

"Retail sales fell sharply in May, suggesting the U.S. is no longer getting a big boost from massive federal fiscal stimulus, but consumers are still spending a lot more now than they did a year ago in a good omen for the economy".
"Sales at U.S. retailers sank 1.3% last month, the government said Tuesday. Sales were held down by fewer purchases of new cars and trucks. Automakers have struggled for months to produce enough vehicles to meet rising demand in the face of major global shortage of computer chips".
"If autos are excluded, retail sales fell a smaller 0.7% in May."

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

==========

GBP/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2021.08.04 16:42 #155

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2021.08.04 18:37

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/CNH and GBP/USD: ISM United States Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

2021-08-04 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Services PMI]

past data is 60.1
forecast data is 60.5
actual data is 64.1 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report :

"The Services PMI® registered another all-time high of 64.1 percent, which is 4 percentage points higher than the June reading of 60.1 and eclipses the previous record of 64 percent in May 2021. The July reading indicates the 14th straight month of growth for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 138 months".

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by ISM Services PMI news events

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by ISM Services PMI news events

==========

GBP/USD: range price movement by ISM Services PMI news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2021.08.04 18:37

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/CNH and GBP/USD: ISM United States Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

2021-08-04 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Services PMI]

past data is 60.1
forecast data is 60.5
actual data is 64.1 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report :

"The Services PMI® registered another all-time high of 64.1 percent, which is 4 percentage points higher than the June reading of 60.1 and eclipses the previous record of 64 percent in May 2021. The July reading indicates the 14th straight month of growth for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 138 months".

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by ISM Services PMI news events

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by ISM Services PMI news events

==========

GBP/USD: range price movement by ISM Services PMI news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2021.08.17 17:10 #156

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2021.08.17 18:56

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CNH: United States Retail Sales

2021-08-17 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

past data is 0.7%
forecast data is 0.1%
actual data is -1.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From marketwatch article :

U.S. stocks fell Tuesday, threatening to end a five-day run of record finishes for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 indexes, after July retail sales came in weaker than expected.
U.S. stocks recovered Monday from early losses, and the S&P 500 notched its 49th record close of 2021. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each established a fifth straight record close, while the Nasdaq Composite weakened by 0.2%.
Retail sales fell 1.1% in July, and were down 0.4% after excluding autos. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had penciled in a 0.3% monthly drop in sales in July, or a 0.2% gain when autos are excluded.

==========

GBP/USD : range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

==========

AUD/USD : range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
AbsoluteStrengthMarket- indicator for MetaTrader 5

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2021.10.08 12:58 #157

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2021.10.08 14:50

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CNH, Dollar Index and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2021-10-08 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

past data is 366K
forecast data is 490K
actual data is 194K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 194,000 in September, and the unemployment ratefell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in publiceducation declined over the month".

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2021.11.04 06:51 #158

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2021.11.04 07:45

Intra-Day Fundamentals - NZD/USD, Dollar Index and USD/CNH: Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

2021-11-03 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

past data is 0.25%
forecast data is 0.25%
actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

==========

From official report :

"The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In light of the substantial further progress the economy has made toward the Committee's goals since last December, the Committee decided to begin reducing the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning later this month, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $70 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $35 billion per month. Beginning in December, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $60 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $30 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook. The Federal Reserve's ongoing purchases and holdings of securities will continue to foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses".

==========

NZD/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

Dollar Index: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2021.12.15 19:25 #159

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2021.12.15 20:22

Intra-Day Fundamentals - CAC 40, Dollar Index and USD/CNH: Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

2021-12-15 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

past data is 0.25%
forecast data is 0.25%
actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

==========

From official report :

"The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. With inflation having exceeded 2 percent for some time, the Committee expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment. In light of inflation developments and the further improvement in the labor market, the Committee decided to reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $20 billion for Treasury securities and $10 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in January, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $40 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $20 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook. The Federal Reserve's ongoing purchases and holdings of securities will continue to foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses".

==========

CAC 40: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

Dollar Index: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2022.02.04 14:29 #160

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2022.02.04 15:18

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CNH, Dollar Index (DXY) and Brent Crude Oil: United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2022-02-04 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

past data is 510K
forecast data is -192K
actual data is 467K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 467,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing".

==========

USD/CNH : range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events