Analysis of economic indicators and their impact on currency and market trends

Sergey Golubev 2021.08.04 18:41 #191

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Sergey Golubev, 2021.08.04 18:37

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/CNH and GBP/USD: ISM United States Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

2021-08-04 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Services PMI]

past data is 60.1
forecast data is 60.5
actual data is 64.1 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report :

"The Services PMI® registered another all-time high of 64.1 percent, which is 4 percentage points higher than the June reading of 60.1 and eclipses the previous record of 64 percent in May 2021. The July reading indicates the 14th straight month of growth for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 138 months".

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by ISM Services PMI news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by ISM Services PMI news events

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GBP/USD: range price movement by ISM Services PMI news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2021.08.11 18:03 #192

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2021.08.11 17:46

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, NZD/USD and Dax Index: United States Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)

2021-08-11 12:30 GMT | [USD - Core CPI]

past data is 0.9%
forecast data is 1.2%
actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy.

==========

From official report :

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.9 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in July after increasing 0.9 percent in June. Along with shelter and new vehicles, the indexes

for recreation, for medical care, and for personal care increased in July. The index for used cars also increased in July, but the 0.2-percent advance was much smaller than in recent months. The index for motor vehicle insurance declined in July, and the index for airline fares fell slightly.

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events

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NZD/USD: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events

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Dax Index: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2021.08.27 19:27 #193

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2021.08.27 19:22

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, EUR/USD and S&P 500 : Fed Chair Powell Speaks

2021-08-27 14:00 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks]

past data is n/a
forecast data is n/a
actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks] = The speech about the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.

==========

From theguardian article :

"Powell’s remarks were far less hawkish than some Wall Street analysts had expected and had an instant impact on the financial markets. The S&P 500 and the technology-dominated Nasdaq share price indices both reached new peaks in the immediate aftermath of the Fed’s chairman’s speech, while there were falls in both the dollar and yields on US Treasury bills.
Wall Street had been braced for Powell to flesh out plans to start tapering away the support the Fed has been providing to the US economy through its asset-buying programme. Instead, he warned that an over-hasty tightening of policy could be "particularly harmful" to jobs."

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Dollar Index: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speaks news events

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EUR/USD: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speaks news events

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S&P 500: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speaks news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2021.10.08 14:58 #194

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2021.10.08 14:50

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CNH, Dollar Index and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2021-10-08 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

past data is 366K
forecast data is 490K
actual data is 194K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 194,000 in September, and the unemployment ratefell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in publiceducation declined over the month".

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2021.11.04 07:51 #195

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2021.11.04 07:45

Intra-Day Fundamentals - NZD/USD, Dollar Index and USD/CNH: Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

2021-11-03 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

past data is 0.25%
forecast data is 0.25%
actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

==========

From official report :

"The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In light of the substantial further progress the economy has made toward the Committee's goals since last December, the Committee decided to begin reducing the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning later this month, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $70 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $35 billion per month. Beginning in December, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $60 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $30 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook. The Federal Reserve's ongoing purchases and holdings of securities will continue to foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses".

==========

NZD/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

Dollar Index: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2021.12.15 20:25 #196

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2021.12.15 20:22

Intra-Day Fundamentals - CAC 40, Dollar Index and USD/CNH: Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

2021-12-15 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

past data is 0.25%
forecast data is 0.25%
actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

==========

From official report :

"The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. With inflation having exceeded 2 percent for some time, the Committee expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment. In light of inflation developments and the further improvement in the labor market, the Committee decided to reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $20 billion for Treasury securities and $10 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in January, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $40 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $20 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook. The Federal Reserve's ongoing purchases and holdings of securities will continue to foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses".

==========

CAC 40: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

Dollar Index: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2022.02.04 15:29 #197

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2022.02.04 15:18

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CNH, Dollar Index (DXY) and Brent Crude Oil: United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2022-02-04 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

past data is 510K
forecast data is -192K
actual data is 467K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 467,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment growth continued in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing".

==========

USD/CNH : range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Dollar Index (DXY) : range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Brent Crude Oil : range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2022.03.17 06:35 #198

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2022.03.17 06:20

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CNH, Dollar Index and DAX Index : Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

2022-03-16 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

past data is 0.25%
forecast data is 0.50%
actual data is 0.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

==========

From official report :

"The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee expects to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at a coming meeting".

==========

USD/CNH : range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

Dollar Index : range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

DAX Index : range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2022.04.12 16:58 #199

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2022.04.12 16:43

Intra-Day Fundamentals - NZD/USD, Dollar Index (DXY) and Google: United States Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI)

2022-04-12 12:30 GMT | [USD - Core CPI]

past data is 0.5%
forecast data is 0.5%
actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy .

==========

From official report :

"The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in March following a 0.5-percent increase the prior month. The shelter index was by far the biggest factor in the increase, with a broad set of other indexes also contributing, including those for airline fares, household furnishings and operations, medical care, and motor vehicle insurance. In contrast, the index for used cars and trucks fell 3.8 percent over the month".

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NZD/USD : range price movement by United States Core Consumer Price Index news event

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Dollar Index : range price movement by United States Core Consumer Price Index news event

==========

Google : range price movement by United States Core Consumer Price Index news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
custom color schemes for MT5 - post #525

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
Rules to trade manually
How to install

Forecast and levels for Google Press review

Sergey Golubev 2022.05.05 06:42 #200

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2022.05.05 06:37

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CAD, Dollar Index and GOLD (XAU/USD) : Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Press Conference

2022-05-04 18:30 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

past data is 0.50%
forecast data is 1.00%
actual data is 1.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

==========

From official report :

"The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee decided to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities on June 1, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in conjunction with this statement".

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USD/CAD : range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events