Forecast and levels for Hang Seng Index (HSI) - page 2

Sergey Golubev
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Hong Kong stock/Index on MT5

Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.02 08:29

HSI?
There is thread related - 

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Forecast and levels for Hang Seng Index (HSI)

https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/164662


Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Hong Kong stock/Index on MT5

Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.02 08:36

As to MT5 so try to open demo account with the following server:
Just2Trade-MT5 



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General information about How To - 

Find a Server by the Broker's Name:
https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/9950/page88#comment_3981953  
https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/214820


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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.11 16:08

Hang Seng Index (HSI) - G7, Central Banks and US Fed; daily correction to the bearish reversal (adapted from the article)

Daily price is on secondary correction within the primary bullish matket condition: the price is breaking support level at 29,964 to below for the bearish reversal to be started.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) by Metatrader 5

  • "One of the key elements of the G7 meeting is the continued communication regarding global participation in key infrastructure projects and national cooperation in regards to economic stability. Right now, a lot of concern has been directed towards the Emerging Markets and what appears to be a near term market collapse. Debt spreads and global indexes have been moving in a pattern that clearly illustrates the Central Banks problems in containing the diverse economic conditions throughout the globe. Infrastructure projects, social/political shifts and currency valuations are complicating matters by creating extended pressures in many global economies recently. All of this centers around the strength of the US economy and the US dollar as related to expectations and valuations of other foreign economies and currencies."
  • "Almost like a double-edged sword, as the US economy/dollar continues to strengthen, foreign capital will migrate into these US assets because of the inherent protection and gains provided by the strength and growth of these markets. While at the same time, the exodus of capital from these foreign markets create a vacuum of value/capability that results in a continued decline in asset valuations and more."
  • "The Hang Seng Index is setting up a possible topping pattern that could break down given state and corporate debt concerns."
  • "Our opinion continues to support the hypothesis that the US markets are the only game on the planet (at the moment) and that a great capital shift is underway in terms of investment in, purchases of and generally opportunistic investment opportunities for US equities and markets going forward. Until something changes where the US dollar strength, foreign economic weakness and foreign debt cycles are abated or resolved, we believe the great capital shift that we have been warning of will continue which will put continued pressures on certain foreign markets and expand debt burdens of at-risk nations over time."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with the following custom indicator:


Sergey Golubev
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Hang Seng Index (HSI) - daily ranging near and below Ichimoku cloud for direction

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to below to be reversed for the primary bearish market condition: the price is on ranging near and below Senkou Span for the bearish trend to be continuing or for thebullish reversal to be started.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

Resistance
Support
30,83929,964
31,59229,518


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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.01.21 05:44

China and The US Stock Market (based on the article)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Recently, we openly discussed the potential for global turmoil related to Europe, Asia, China, and South America. The issues before the globe are that the global economy may not be firing in sync and that there are credit and debt, as well as geopolitical, issues that persist. The interesting component of all of this is that the US stock market has staged a very impressive recovery over the past two weeks that have shocked even the best Wall Street analysts and researchers. While the US recovered from elections, the Fed, FANG price collapse and a Government Shutdown, the US stock markets appeared to be falling off a cliff. Then, almost exactly on Christmas Eve, the markets turned around - even in the midst of all of this uncertainty." 

Nasdaq chart by Metatrader 5


  • "Now, nearly 3 weeks after Christmas, the US stock market appears to be shaking off the negativity and headed for higher price levels. China announced a plan to eliminate the trade barriers between the US by providing a 10-year plan to gradually eliminate any US trade deficit. Even though China has discussed this plan before, the US stock market ate it up like a starving man on a deserted island. The ES rallied over 3.35% this week. The NQ rallied over 3.0% and the YM rallied over 3.25% week."

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The charts were made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


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Is The Hong Kong Market the Best Marketplace for 2019?

Rinky, 2019.02.07 07:22

In accordance with Statista, the Hang Seng Index has skilled solely three years with negative returns over the previous 15 years (2002 – 2017). And in each instance, the Hang Seng Index was capable of rebound the next year. Though previous performance isn't a mirrored image of future performance, it does spotlight the resilience of the Hang Seng Index.

The Excellent Storm for Hang Seng Index?

2018 appears to be the perfect storm for the index. Nearly something that would go wrong went wrong for its major constitutes. Moreover, the Chinese financial sector is undergoing an interval of deleveraging as the federal government has acknowledged that the debt level in China has reached a worrying level. That has risen the risk of default within the monetary system and put a strain on the profitability of the most important banks.

And we now have to add in a trade war with the US throughout the identical period. Lastly, its technology giant, Tencent Holdings (HKEX:700), confronted its latest disaster with more restrictions on its gaming release and a possible restructuring with your entire industry. The corporate has seen greater than a 30% drop in its share value this year from its peak in February.

Is The Worth in Hong Kong?

Because of the sell down within the Hang Seng Index, lots of its monetary banks are buying and selling at record-level dividend yields. The 4 main banks; Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank, China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China, are at the moment buying and selling with a dividend yield of 5% to 6%.

For the current valuation of Tencent Holdings, the analysis team says- “Tencent at the moment trades at an ahead PE ratio 24.4X (based mostly on 2019 estimated earnings), which is beneath peersaverage of 28X. It is usually buying and selling at the lowest PE ratio previously 5 years.”

In fact, there'll still be risks available in the market. For one, the unresolved trade war between China and the US is one that would drag on for years and have a significant influence on the worldwide economic system. When investing in the Hang Seng stock market, we will also be exposed to the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) and Chinese Renminbi (CNY) currency risks as well.

Source

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.03.21 09:29

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, Dax Index and Hang Seng IndexFederal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

2019-03-20 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 2.50%
  • forecast data is 2.50%
  • actual data is 2.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From official report :

  • "Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent. The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes. In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes."

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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Dax Index: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

Dax Index: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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Hang Seng Index (HK50): range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

Hang Seng Index (HK50): range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.05.24 07:37

Hang Seng Index (HSI) - correction to the bearish reversal (based on the article)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) weekly Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The Chinese Hang Seng Index collapsed early this week to new recent lows. This breakdown in the Chinese major stock index highlights the anticipated fallout from the continued US/China trade war. Recent data from the Chinese property market and corporate bond markets suggest a broad slowdown in economic activity which may surprise many foreign investors in the weeks/months to come."
  • "First, the Hang Seng Index collapsed much lower this week – prompting the US and UK markets to breakdown as well. The continued rhetoric between the US and China regarding the Trade War is not helping the global economy much. Yet, it must continue to some conclusion before the planet can begin to move forward. At this point, it is almost like watching an old school game of” Chicken” – who flinches first."

============

The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.03 15:06

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CAD, NZD/USD and Hang Seng Index (HSI): United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2020-04-03 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 275K
  • forecast data is 163K
  • actual data is -701K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 701,000 in March, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The changes in these measures reflect the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and efforts to contain it. Employment in leisure and hospitality fell by 459,000, mainly in food services and drinking places. Notable declines also occurred in health care and social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

USD/CAD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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NZD/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

NZD/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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Hang Seng Index (HSI): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

Hang Seng Index (HSI): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2021.03.17 20:10

Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD, NZD/USD and Hang Seng IndexFederal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

2021-03-18 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 0.25%
  • forecast data is 0.25%
  • actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In addition, the Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses".

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AUD/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

AUD/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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NZD/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

NZD/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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Hang Seng Index (HK50): range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

Hang Seng Index (HK50): range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators: