Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for AUD/USD - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.02 07:38

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Building Approvals and 36 pips range price movement

2016-11-02 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Building Approvals]

  • past data is -1.8%
  • forecast data is -2.8%
  • actual data is -8.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Building Approvals] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued.

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From official report:


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AUD/USD M5: 36 pips price movement by Australia Building Approvals news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.03 07:01

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Trade Balance and 34 pips range price movement

2016-11-03 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -1.89B
  • forecast data is -1.71B
  • actual data is -1.23B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

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From official report:

  • "In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,784m in September 2016, a decrease of $127m (7%) on the deficit in August 2016."
  • "In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,227m in September 2016, a decrease of $667m (35%) on the deficit in August 2016."

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AUD/USD M5: 34 pips range price movement by Australia Trade Balance news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.04 07:03

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Retail Sales and 34 pips range price movement

2016-11-04 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From official report:

  • "The trend estimate rose 0.2% in September 2016. This follows a rise of 0.3% in August 2016 and a rise of 0.2% in July 2016."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.6% in September 2016. This follows a rise of 0.5% in August 2016 and a relatively unchanged estimate (0.0%) in July 2016."

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AUD/USD M5: 34 pips range price movement by Australia Retail Sales news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.12 17:10

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD - "The pricing in of this world view is likely to resume next week, sending the Aussie lower. A busy Fed-speak docket coupled with US PPI and CPI numbers may reinforce momentum if a repeat of recently hawkish rhetoric and further evidence of firming price pressures underscores the on-coming Fed vs. RBA divergence. Domestic jobs data may momentarily slow momentum but probably won’t be potent-enough to offset it."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.15 08:43

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and 28 pips range price movement

2016-11-15 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

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From Econotimes article: RBA likely to stay on hold for sometime on domestic, global uncertainty

  • "The Reserve Bank of Australia’s November Board meeting minutes were widely in line with the narrative from the Monetary Policy statement. The overall tone seems very optimistic, with economic growth projection to be around potential in the quarters ahead, noted ANZ in a research report."
  • "Significantly, the November meeting minutes imply that the Reserve Bank of Australia might be more comfortable with the inflation outlook and possibly increasingly confident that pressures of disinflation have peaked. The minutes reiterated that the risks to global inflation are quite balanced but also judged risks to domestic inflation as “broadly balanced”, underpinned by “evident that wage growth in Australia had stabilized”, said ANZ."
  • "We continue to see the RBA on hold with the cash rate steady at 1.5 percent. While the RBA’s forecasts for persistently low inflation implies an easing bias, this is tempered by a more balanced assessment of the inflation risks and ongoing financial stability concerns."

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AUD/USD M5: 28 pips range price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.15 09:01

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD : German Gross Domestic Product

2016-11-15 07:00 GMT | [EUR - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

"German economic growth is losing some momentum. In the third quarter of 2016, the gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.2% on the second quarter of 2016 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations; this is reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). In the first half of the year, the GDP had increased somewhat more, by 0.4% in the second quarter and 0.7% in the first quarter."

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EUR/USD M5: 30 pips range price movement by German Gross Domestic Product news events


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USD/CAD M5: 25 pips range price movement by German Gross Domestic Product news events


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AUD/USD M5: 28 pips range price movement by German Gross Domestic Product news events


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.16 06:58

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Labour Price Index and 27 pips range price movement

2016-11-16 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Wage Price Index]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Wage Price Index] = Change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, excluding bonuses.

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From official report:

 

  • "The trend index and the seasonally adjusted index for Australia both rose 0.4% in the September quarter 2016."

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AUD/USD M5: 27 pips range price movement by Australia Labour Price Index news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.17 09:40

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and 34 pips range price movement

2016-11-17 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is -29.0K
  • forecast data is 20.3K
  • actual data is 9.8K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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From official report:

  • "Employment increased 9,800 to 11,938,900. Full-time employment increased 41,500 to 8,126,900 and part-time employment decreased 31,700 to 3,812,000."
  • "Unemployment decreased 2,000 to 705,100. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work increased 700 to 494,300 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work decreased 2,700 to 210,800."
  • "Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.6%."
  • "Participation rate remained steady at 64.4%."
  • "Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 14.3 million hours to 1674.8 million hours."

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AUD/USD M5: 34 pips range price movement by Australian Employment Change news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.19 11:29

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD - "The evolution of this narrative is likely to remain in focus for financial markets in the week ahead. On one hand, established momentum should find few barriers to disrupt continuation. Fed Funds futures put the probability of a Fed rate hike in December at 98 percent, meaning it is all but priced in. Comments from central bank officials over the past week repeatedly suggested that the specifics of any on-coming fiscal boost will be formative to the direction of policy next year. This means that the release of minutes from November’s FOMC meeting and a steady stream of US activity data is unlikely to materially alter the landscape (durable goods orders and home sales figures as well as the PMI survey roundup are on tap). The Australian data docket is close to empty."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.23 08:10

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Construction Work Done and pips range price movement

2016-11-23 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Construction Work Done]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Construction Work Done] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of construction projects completed.

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From official report:

  • "The trend estimate for total construction work done fell 3.1% in the September quarter 2016."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate for total construction work done fell 4.9% to $46,147.8m in the September quarter."
  • "The trend estimate for total building work done fell 0.7% in the September quarter."
  • "The trend estimate for non-residential building work done fell 3.1% and residential building work rose 0.6%."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate of total building work done fell 5.7% to $25,886.6m in the September quarter."

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AUD/USD M5: pips range price movement by Australian Construction Work Done news event

 


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