AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 18.09 - 25.09: bullish ranging near daily bearish reversal

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.17 10:38

Weekly Outlook: 2016, September 18 - September 25 (based on the article)

The US dollar had a positive week, resisting unconvincing data. Now comes the biggest test: the Fed decision. In addition, we have US Building Permits, rate decisions in Japan and in New Zealand, as well as other events. These are the main events for this week.

1. US Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30. The number of new residential permits is expected to rise to 1.17 million in August.
2. Stephen Poloz speaks: Tuesday, 17:45. BOC Governor Stephen Poloz will speak in Quebec.
3. Japan rate decision: Wednesday.
4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
5. US Fed Decision: Wednesday: statement and projections at 18:00, Yellen’s press conference at 18:30. 
6. NZ rate decision: Wednesday, 21:00. Governor Graeme announced new lending restrictions for property investors to cool the housing market and enable further rate cuts in the coming months.
7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. Economists expect the number of claims will reach 261,000 this week.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.17 11:59

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "In the event of full-scale risk aversion, the Dollar will not immediately jump to its haven status. Rather, the first phase of sentiment souring would be a diminished economic outlook and the subsequent loss of further yield potential. The more rapidly confidence falls apart, the better for USD as it will revive the absolute safe haven role. Sentiment however does not just hang on the Fed alone. We have seen volatility and volume rise through other contributions this past week. The BoJ’s quickly failing credibility along with the all-out doves could spark fears for the end of a stimulus-supported market boom. Brexit fears stirred this past week could infect deeper financial flaws. Or, the ‘animal spirits’ themselves could rise. Watch sentiment and the Fed through these tenuous times."

GBP/USD - "In turn, GBP/USD may continue to shed the advance from the August low (1.2854), with the exchange rate failing to preserve the monthly opening range, and the pair may ultimately threaten the post ‘Brexit’ wedge/triangle formation in the days ahead should the FOMC meeting boost interest-rate expectations. However, the pair may continue to consolidate within the near-term holding pattern if Fed officials largely endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy and show a greater willingness to further delay the normalization cycle."

AUD/USD - "Although Fed officials have claimed that every policy meeting may produce a rate hike, their clear desire not to trigger market panic suggests that they will not opt to change things without an opportunity to thoroughly explain in detail. This means that after this week’s outing, the next opportunity for stimulus withdrawal comes in December. Between now and then, another opportunity to update traders will come in November, offering the FOMC a chance to up- or down-shift the projected rate hike path and limit surprise risk. Keeping this flexibility will mean that the narrative emerging from the upcoming announcement will need to be cautious but unmistakably hawkish. This bodes ill for risk appetite as well as the Aussie’s yield advantage, threatening to deliver the currency a third consecutive weekly loss."

NZD/USD - "We’re going to hold a neutral forecast on the New Zealand Dollar for the week ahead, with a warning of caution around this upcoming RBNZ meeting as the bank will be making the announcement in what could be extremely volatile market conditions in the wake of FOMC."

USD/CAD - "The heavy economic data points this week will take place on Friday, which will be after the dust settles from the international development such as the Central Bank triple-header on September 21. On Tuesday, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will be speaking in Quebec City, which will be followed by a press conference. Friday will provide the Canadian Dollar an opportunity to reverse its trend of negative economic surprises with Retail Sales (exp. -0.1 MoM), and the Consumer Price Index (exp. 1.3% YoY.) Because this is the key gauge for inflation in Canada, a disappointment here coupled with positive developments south of the Canadian Border could put further selling pressure on the Loonie."

USD/CNH - "Next week, traders will want to watch two indicators for clues of the lower bound of the USD/CNH: A) The PBOC’s guidance – the last Yuan fix issued by the PBOC before the holiday was 6.6726. The USD/CNH has already traded below this level. Yuan’s reference rate set after the reopen of onshore markets could tell us whether the Central Bank confirms this Yuan strength. B) HIBOR rates: tightened Yuan liquidity will increase the cost of shorting the Yuan and thus could hold the USD/CNH at low levels. The average level of HIBOR O/N in August was 1.41% and the average over the past 12 months was 2.56%. If the HIBOR read on next Monday is still significantly higher than these levels, it may indicate uneased condition in offshore and a stronger Yuan."

GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Gold is eyeing a key near-term support confluence into the close of the week at 1302/04 where the 100% extension of the decline off the early high converges on the 100-day moving average, the monthly low & the May high. The immediate downside bias is at risk while above this level near-term with initial resistance eyed at the monthly low-day close at 1323 backed by 1330." 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.20 07:26

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and 18 pips price movement

2016-09-20 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

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From ABC News article:

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AUD/USD M5: 18 pips price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.20 15:14

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD: U.S. Residential Building Permits

2016-09-20 12:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]

• past data is 1.14M
• forecast data is 1.17M
• actual data is 1.14M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.

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From Business Insider article:

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EUR/USD M5: 11 pips range price movement by U.S. Building Permits news events

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USD/CAD M5: 20 pips price movement by U.S. Building Permits news events

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AUD/USD M5: 13 pips price movement by U.S. Building Permits news events

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.21 20:48

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD: FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate

2016-09-21 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

• past data is 0.50%
• forecast data is 0.50%
• actual data is 0.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From ft article: Fed fund futures see 60% chance of 2016 rate hike

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EUR/USD M5: 61 pips range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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AUD/USD M5: 67 pips range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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USD/CAD M5: 93 pips range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.22 09:08

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Gov Lowe Speaks and 28 pips range price movement

2016-09-22 00:00 GMT | [AUD - RBA Gov Lowe Speaks]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[AUD - RBA Gov Lowe Speaks] = Opening Statement to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, in Canberra

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From SBS article: RBA governor Philip Lowe says a lower Australian dollar would be helpful to amplify the positive effects of its falls in recent years

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AUD/USD M5: 28 pips range price movement by RBA Gov Lowe Speaks news event

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.22 14:51

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD: U.S. Jobless Claims

2016-09-22 12:30 GMT | [USD - Unemployment Claims]

• past data is 260K
• forecast data is 261K
• actual data is 252K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

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From MarketWatch article: Jobless claims fall to lowest level since July

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EUR/USD M5: 7 pips range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events

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AUD/USD M5: 8 pips price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events

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USD/CAD M5: 11 pips range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.24 11:24

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "Where rate speculation will offer the most proactive market influence, it is important to keep a weathered eye out for those influences that seem inert but can redefine the landscape should they stir. In the list of sidelined themes, risk trends remains a top consideration. The volatility and volume that revived capital markets on Friday the 9th is holding despite the familiar sense of lethargy trying to push back in. At present, any market-wide sentiment shifts immediately ahead would come without clear warning in scheduled events. However, if fear does start to shake loose investors, liquidity is likely to amplify the risk aversion and quickly rally the Dollar on inflows." 

USD/JPY - "In theory the BoJ has committed itself to limitless bond purchases if it is to maintain a specific target on the 10-year JGB yield. In practice, however, the targeted bond was already trading just barely above the bank’s target. Nothing will change absent a material rally in JGB’s, and traders are effectively left with the status quo. Japanese Yen traders are likewise left with an effectively unchanged fundamental outlook, and this in itself favors a continued JPY rally (USD/JPY decline) versus the US Dollar. Only a material break above key range highs would shift our near-term trading bias on the USD/JPY."

GBP/USD - "GBP/USD stands at risk of breaking down from the triangle/wedge formation carried over from the previous month as the pair trades to fresh monthly lows going into the final week of September, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be highlighting a similar dynamic as it fails to preserve the bullish formation carried over from the summer months. In turn, a break/close below the Fibonacci overlap around 1.2920 (100% expansion) to 1.2950 (23.6% expansion) may open up the next downside area of interest around 1.2630 (38.2% retracement), but the pound-dollar may continue to consolidate within a wedge/triangle formation should Fed officials fail to prop up interest-rate expectation."

AUD/USD - "The voting pattern at last week’s FOMC meeting seems to nearly assure the former. As for the latter, Yellen’s assertion that things need only remain the same between now and the end of the year to warrant a hike keeps the bar relatively low. On balance, this hints the Aussie may find its way lower anew as the prospect of nearing stimulus withdrawal weighs on risk appetite and drives an adverse shift in yield spreads."

USD/CNH - "China will release official and Caixin Manufacturing PMI prints, key measures for the health of the economy and drivers for Yuan’s intraday moves. The August and September PMI reads sent out mixed signals: In August, the official PMI read showed contraction while Caixin PMI indicated expansion; in September, Caixin PMI read dropped while the official print rose. The September prints may give out more clues on what is really going on in the Chinese manufacturing sector. The major issue that Chinese manufacturing firms are facing is low demand and overcapacity. According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg, the consensus forecast for the official PMI is 50.5 and for the Caixin PMI is 50.1, both in expansion territory. If the PMI prints come out weaker-than-expected, the Yuan could weaken against the U.S. Dollar during the session, though it is very unlikely to break the key level of 6.70 with Yuan’s SDR inclusion on the horizon."

GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer, Chair Janet Yellen, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Kansas City Fed President Esther George and Fed Governor Jerome Powell slated for speeches. Also note we get the third and final revision of 2Q GDP with consensus estimates calling for an uptick in the annualized rate to 1.3% q/q from 1.1% q/q. Stronger US data could weigh on gold prices in the near-term but the technicals suggest that gold is primed for volatility in the days ahead." 

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Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for AUD/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.27 12:16

AUD/USD October-December 2016 Forecast: ranging bullish waiting for breakout or breakdown

W1 price is on ranging market condition located to be above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is located within 0.7755 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed and 0.7330 support level for the bearish reversal to be started. The key resistance level for the bullish trend continuation is 0.7834, and key support for the bearish market condition is 0.7200 psy level with 0.7144 weekly bearish target. Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for direction, and descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the possible bearish reversal.

Chinkou Span line is located near and above the price indicating the ranging condition and ready for breakout or breakdown in the near future, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the trend to be ranging bullish. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line for the bullish trend to be resumed.

• If the price breaks 0.7755 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed with 0.7834 bullish target to re-enter.
  
• If weekly price breaks 0.7330 support level on close bar to below so the reversal of the weekly price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  
• If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
  

Resistance	Support
0.7755	0.7330
0.7834	0.7144

Trend:

W1 - ranging bullish

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.28 08:48

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Assist Gov Edey Speaks and 13 pips price movement

2016-09-28 00:20 GMT | [AUD - RBA Assist Gov Edey Speaks]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[AUD - RBA Assist Gov Edey Speaks] = The Speech at the Australian Financial Review Retail Summit, in Melbourne.

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"This is a conference about the retail industry, not the payments industry. However, a retail business is not a business if the retailer cannot get paid. And a retailer won't be at their most competitive if their payment costs are higher than they should be. This is an issue staff at the Reserve Bank think about every day, and one that I hope retailers are taking a close interest in as well.

Today I'll talk about how the way we pay is changing, and what it means for retail businesses. I'll also talk about the Reserve Bank's role as a payments regulator and about some of the things that are just around the corner in payments."

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AUD/USD M5: 13 pips price movement by RBA Assist Gov Edey Speaks news event

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.28 15:02

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: Durable Goods Orders

2016-09-28 12:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

• past data is 3.6%
• forecast data is -1.0%
• actual data is 0.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From Market Watch article: Durable-goods orders lose steam in August

"Orders for durable or long-lasting goods flattened out in August after a sizable gain in the prior month, pointing to ongoing difficulties for American manufacturers. Orders fell 22% for large commercial aircraft, a volatile category that’s exhibited large swings during the summer. Bookings for new autos rose 0.7%, however. Stripping out transportation, orders sagged 0.4%, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Demand declined for heavy machinery, computers and electrical equipment. What’s more, shipments of core capital goods, a category used to help determine gross domestic product, fell 0.4% to mark the fourth straight decline."

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EUR/USD M5: 16 pips price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

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AUD/USD M5: 15 pips range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events