Press review - page 435

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Waiting For The Fed FOMC Meeting (based on the Forbes article)

"It’s hard to fault investors if they feel the same way this year about the Federal Reserve, which originally signaled a series of rate hikes in 2016 but keeps ending its meetings without changing interest rates. That’s the expectation again as the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this coming Tuesday and Wednesday, but what the Fed says after the meeting may bear close watching. With expectations growing for a possible rate hike in December, investors might want to stay on the lookout for any more evidence of hawkish sentiment in the Fed’s words."

"So the question is less what will the Fed do this coming week, and more what might the Fed say in its post-meeting statement Wednesday afternoon. After Friday’s Consumer Price Index data for August showed a bigger than expected 0.3% rise in core CPI, the market turned lower, apparently out of concern that a higher inflation reading could play into the Fed’s decision making, perhaps resulting in a more hawkish statement. But trading could be slow in the early part of the week as many investors may seek to avoid risk ahead of and during the Fed meeting. That was already evident to some extent in slow trading Friday."

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Week Ahead: Get Ready For A Pivotal Week For Markets - Credit Agricole (based on the article)

USD/JPY H4 timeframe

The price is located near and above 200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart and below 100 SMA for the ranging market condition. The price is trying to break 100 SMA together with symmetric triangle pattern to above for the price to be reversed from the ranging bullish to the primary bullish trend. Alterbative, if the price breaks 101.73 support level to below so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.

  • "Next week could prove pivotal for the markets for two reasons. First, we expect the BoJ to announce policies to re-steepen the JGB curve and even cut depo rates further. Importantly, the meeting may not allay fears that the BoJ is quickly running out of options to ease further. All that could continue to push Japanese long-term yields higher. Second, the Fed should keep rates unchanged but could come out with a relatively more hawkish statement, potentially making reference to a rate hike in the coming months."
  • "The BoJ and the Fed meetings could add vigour to the latest tightening in global financial conditions, and lead to further underperformance of commodity and high-yielding G10 currencies. Growing uncertainty ahead of the US presidential election could also fuel the headwinds for market risk sentiment as we approach the first televised debate on 26 September."
  • "USD/JPY could remain caught between re-emerging policy divergence on the one hand and escalating risk aversion on the other. That said, we think that short-term volatility should remain bid ahead of next Wednesday."


  • If the price will break 102.75 resistance level so the bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If price will break 101.73 support so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
102.75101.73
103.34101.19
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 101.73 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 102.75 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

Week Ahead: Get Ready For A Pivotal Week For Markets - Credit Agricole
Week Ahead: Get Ready For A Pivotal Week For Markets - Credit Agricole
  • www.efxnews.com
The recent rise of global long-term bond yields remains the overriding driver of FX markets. Indeed, the move constitutes a tightening in global financial conditions that erodes market risk sentiment, and hurts higher-yielding and commodity currencies. Because the move has been fuelled by concerns about the BoJ's and ECB's ability to ease...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

S&P 500 Technical Analysis 2016, 18.09 - 25.09: inside Ichimoku cloud for the bearish reversal or bullish trend to be resumed (adapted from the article)

Daily price broke of the border of Ichimoku cloud for the ranging market condition. The price was bounced from 2106.75 support level to above for the bullish ranging to be started within Ichimoku cloud.

"The market is off the lows, but still poorly postured with another possible lower high in the works (most visible on the intra-day time-frame). But there is also a higher low, too. The lower high, higher low could further contract towards a wedge, which would be inviting as it will likely lead to a tradeable breakout at some point. Still sitting in the one more leg lower camp at this time, but not willing to go too far out on a limb with this bias just yet."

If D1 price breaks 2106.75 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price breaks 2191.25 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


Resistance
Support
2189.002106.75
2191.25N/A

SUMMARY : breakdown

TREND : ranging
S&P 500: Bounces from Oversold, but Is It for Real?
S&P 500: Bounces from Oversold, but Is It for Real?
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
The S&P 500 bounces from extreme oversold conditions Price behavior still not giving a strong indication one way or another just yet A little more time should bring clarity to the situation On Wednesday, we noted the extreme short-term oversold conditions present in the S&P 500 (FXCM: SPX500), suggesting a trade-able low was close at hand...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EURUSD Price Action Outlook: Breaking Lower (based on the article)

Daily price is on testing 1.1149 support level to below for the reversal to the primary bearish market condition.

  • "The EURUSD outlook unchanged as it ended the previous week on its knees, closing Friday around 1.1150 area. While this may not seem like a big deal, one should consider the range the pair was holding for the whole week: less than one hundred pips."
  • "For the Forex market, a market dominated by wild moves and unpredictable reactions, one hundred pips on the most liquid currency pair out of them all is quite nothing. And this range held until Friday, even though important economic events like the US retail sales and the Producer’s Price Index (PPI) were released on Thursday."
  • "Despite those events and the EURUSD outlook, nothing moved the pair. That is, until Friday, when a cold shower saw bulls capitulating: the CPI or inflation in the United States printed higher."

The price is located within 100 SMA/200 SMA for the breaking the 200-day SMA together with descending triangle pattern to below for the bearish condition. Alternative, if the price breaks 1.1283 resistance to above so the bullish trend will be resumed.

  • If the price will break 1.1283 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If price will break 1.1149 support so the bearish reversal will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.12831.1149
1.1326N/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.1149 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1283 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish reversal

SUMMARY : correction to the possible bearish reversal

EURUSD Outlook | Bearish EURUSD | Triangle broke lower
EURUSD Outlook | Bearish EURUSD | Triangle broke lower
  • 2016.09.19
  • Mircea Vasiu
  • www.fxnewscall.com
The EURUSD outlook unchanged as it ended the previous week on its knees, closing Friday around 1.1150 area. While this may not seem like a big deal, one should consider the range the pair was holding for the whole week: less than one hundred pips. For the Forex market, a market dominated by wild moves and unpredictable reactions, one hundred...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and 18 pips price movement

2016-09-20 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

==========

From ABC News article:

"Interest rates are likely to remain on hold in the foreseeable future, with the Reserve Bank of Australia flagging that growth remains in line with expectations, and the RBA remains unperturbed by the housing market."

"Taking into account the recent data, and having eased monetary policy at its May and August meetings, the Board judged the current stance of monetary policy was consistent with sustainable growth in the Australian economy and achieving the inflation target over time," the Board said in its minutes.

"The Reserve Bank has an inflation target of between 2 to 3 per cent, and the rate cuts in May and August were prompted by weak inflation figures in the March and June quarters."

==========

AUD/USD M5: 18 pips price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event


RBA minutes suggest rates to stay on hold
RBA minutes suggest rates to stay on hold
  • www.abc.net.au
Interest rates are likely to remain on hold in the foreseeable future, with the Reserve Bank of Australia flagging that growth remains in line with expectations, and the RBA remains unperturbed by the housing market. "Taking into account the recent data, and having eased monetary policy at its May and August meetings, the Board judged the...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is near and below 100 SMA/200 SMA for 1.1197 resistance level to be tested for the bullish reversal. The price is located within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1197 resistance level located near 100 SMA/200 SMA in the beginning of the bullish trend to be started, and
  • 1.1150 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed.
The symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the p[rice to be broken to the direction of the trend.



Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for EUR/USD to be on bearish condition with the strong support level to be around 1.1100 for example:

"We turned bearish EUR yesterday but indicated that any decline is expected to encounter solid support at 1.1100. In other words, the downside potential appears to be limited. That said, the outlook for EUR is deemed as bearish until there is a break above 1.1240."


  • If daily price breaks 1.1207 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If daily price breaks 1.1109 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
  • www.efxnews.com
EUR/USD: Bearish: Expect solid support at 1.1100. We turned bearish EUR yesterday but indicated that any decline is expected to encounter solid support at 1.1100. In other words, the downside potential appears to be limited. That said, the outlook for EUR is deemed as bearish until there is a break above 1.1240. GBP/USD: Bearish: Oversold but...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD: U.S. Residential Building Permits

2016-09-20 12:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.

==========

From Business Insider article:

U.S. housing starts fell more than expected in August as building activity declined broadly after two straight months of solid increases, but a rebound in permits for single-family dwellings suggested demand for housing remained intact.

Groundbreaking decreased 5.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.14 million units, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. July's starts were unrevised at a 1.21 million-unit pace.

Permits for future construction slipped 0.4 percent to a 1.14 million-unit rate last month as approvals for the volatile multi-family homes segment tumbled 7.2 percent to a 402,000 unit-rate. Permits for single-family homes, the largest segment of the market, surged 3.7 percent to a 737,000-unit pace.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts falling to a 1.19 million-unit pace last month and building permits rising to a 1.17 million-unit rate.

==========

EUR/USD M5: 11 pips range price movement by U.S. Building Permits news events



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USD/CAD M5: 20 pips price movement by U.S. Building Permits news events


==========

AUD/USD M5: 13 pips price movement by U.S. Building Permits news events

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of Canada Gov Poloz Speaks and 32 pips range price movement

2016-09-20 16:50 GMT | [CAD - BoC Gov Poloz Speaks]

[CAD - BoC Gov Poloz Speaks] = Speech at the Chartered Financial Analysts Society, Quebec.

==========

"It’s time to conclude. What I’ve tried to do today is be clear about the forces that have brought about this period of ultra-low interest rates and help identify the implications. While monetary policy actions played a role in the decline of interest rates, the Bank sets its policy rate to meet its primary mission: returning inflation sustainably to target, thus helping to get the economy back to full output. In this sense, ultra-low interest rates are a symptom of the conditions we face, conditions that we believe are improving over time."

"But some of the forces leading to low interest rates will persist for a long time, so we need to prepare for lower for longer. Individuals need to plan for retirement with different assumptions about longevity, interest rates and growth. Businesses need to make sure their expectations about investment returns reflect the current and likely future reality and reconfigure their investment plans accordingly. And policy-makers need to make sure they are working to increase the economy’s potential output and reduce uncertainty—whether economic, political or regulatory—that may be holding back investment."

"What the Bank can, and will, continue to do is to provide certainty about the future value of money through inflation control. Together, we can make the necessary adjustments and boost confidence that will foster the economic growth we all want to see."

==========

USD/CAD M5: 32 pips range price movement by Bank of Canada Gov Poloz Speaks news event


Living with Lower for Longer
Living with Lower for Longer
  • 2016.09.08
  • www.bankofcanada.ca
Governor Stephen S. Poloz talks about the adjustments that savers and companies need to make in response to low interest rates, and economic policies that can help.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of Japan Policy Rate and 134 pips price movement

2016-09-21 04:18 GMT | [JPY - BoJ Policy Rate]

  • past data is -0.10%
  • forecast data is -0.20%
  • actual data is -0.10% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - BoJ Policy Rate] = Interest rate levied on excess current account balances held at the BOJ.

==========

From CNBC article: Bank of Japan sets long-term rate target in major policy overhaul -
Japan's central bank kept rates steady at its meeting Wednesday but issued a plethora of fresh changes to its policy approach, marking its latest attempt to boost prices and goose economic growth.

Among the changes, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) said it would make yield curve control a centerpiece of its new policy framework, by a seven-to-two vote. It said it would buy 10-year JGBs so that the yield would hover around zero percent.

The changes indicated the central bank's promised comprehensive review of the effectiveness of its policies was fruitful, and many of the new policies appeared to address critics' concerns about negative effects of the BOJ's aggressive easing measures.

The BOJ eliminated the maturity range for its Japan government bond purchases and it abandoned its target to increase the monetary base by 80 trillion yen a year, although the central bank said it currently plans to keep buying bonds so that the balance of its holdings increase by that amount.

It kept its deposit rate unchanged at negative 0.1 percent.

==========

USD/JPY M5: 134 pips price movement by Bank of Japan Policy Rate news event


Bank of Japan sets long-term rate target in major policy overhaul
Bank of Japan sets long-term rate target in major policy overhaul
  • 2016.09.21
  • Leslie Shaffer | @LeslieShaffer1
  • www.cnbc.com
Japan's central bank kept rates steady at its meeting Wednesday but issued a plethora of fresh changes to its policy approach, marking its latest attempt to boost prices and goose economic growth. Among the changes, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) said it would make yield curve control a centerpiece of its new policy framework, by a seven-to-two vote...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price broke 1.1150 support level to below for the primary bearish trend to be continuing: the price is on ranging within the following narrow support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1213 resistance level located near 100 SMA/200 SMA in the beginning of the bullish trend to be started, and
  • 1.1124 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed.
The descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be broken to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.



Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for the bearish condition to be continuing with 1.1100 strong support level:

"There is not much to add as EUR spiked to a high of 1.1213 yesterday but eased off quickly to end near the day’s low. The outlook is still bearish but as highlighted in recent updates, any decline is expected to encounter solid support at 1.1100."


  • If daily price breaks 1.1244 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If daily price breaks 1.1149 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition will be started with 1.1122 target to re-enter.
  • If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB
  • www.efxnews.com
EUR/USD: Bearish: Expect solid support at 1.1100. There is not much to add as EUR spiked to a high of 1.1213 yesterday but eased off quickly to end near the day’s low. The outlook is still bearish but as highlighted in recent updates, any decline is expected to encounter solid support at 1.1100.  GBP/USD: Bearish: To take partial profit at...