Waiting For The Fed FOMC Meeting (based on the Forbes article)
"It’s hard to fault investors if they feel the same way this year about the Federal Reserve, which originally signaled a series of rate hikes in 2016 but keeps ending its meetings without changing interest rates. That’s the expectation again as the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this coming Tuesday and Wednesday, but what the Fed says after the meeting may bear close watching. With expectations growing for a possible rate hike in December, investors might want to stay on the lookout for any more evidence of hawkish sentiment in the Fed’s words."
"So the question is less what will the Fed do this coming week, and more what might the Fed say in its post-meeting statement Wednesday afternoon. After Friday’s Consumer Price Index data for August showed a bigger than expected 0.3% rise in core CPI, the market turned lower, apparently out of concern that a higher inflation reading could play into the Fed’s decision making, perhaps resulting in a more hawkish statement. But trading could be slow in the early part of the week as many investors may seek to avoid risk ahead of and during the Fed meeting. That was already evident to some extent in slow trading Friday."
Week Ahead: Get Ready For A Pivotal Week For Markets - Credit Agricole (based on the article)
USD/JPY H4 timeframe
The price is located near and above 200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart and below 100 SMA for the ranging market condition. The price is trying to break 100 SMA together with symmetric triangle pattern to above for the price to be reversed from the ranging bullish to the primary bullish trend. Alterbative, if the price breaks 101.73 support level to below so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
SUMMARY : ranging
S&P 500 Technical Analysis
2016, 18.09 - 25.09: inside Ichimoku cloud for the bearish reversal or bullish trend to be resumed (adapted from the article)
Daily price broke of the border of Ichimoku cloud for the ranging market condition. The price was bounced from 2106.75 support level to above for the bullish ranging to be started within Ichimoku cloud.
"The market is off the lows, but still poorly postured with another
possible lower high in the works (most visible on the intra-day
time-frame). But there is also a higher low, too. The lower high, higher
low could further contract towards a wedge, which would be inviting as
it will likely lead to a tradeable breakout at some point. Still sitting
in the one more leg lower camp at this time, but not willing to go too
far out on a limb with this bias just yet."
If D1 price breaks 2106.75
support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to
the primary bearish market condition will be started.If D1 price breaks 2191.25
resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be resumed.If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
SUMMARY : breakdown
EURUSD Price Action Outlook: Breaking Lower (based on the article)
Daily price is on testing 1.1149 support level to below for the reversal to the primary bearish market condition.
The price is located within 100 SMA/200 SMA for the breaking the 200-day
SMA together with descending triangle pattern to below for the bearish
condition. Alternative, if the price breaks 1.1283 resistance to above
so the bullish trend will be resumed.
SUMMARY : correction to the possible bearish reversal
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and 18 pips price movement
2016-09-20 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]
[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent
meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that
influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.
From ABC News article:
"Interest rates are likely to remain on hold in the foreseeable future,
with the Reserve Bank of Australia flagging that growth remains in line
with expectations, and the RBA remains unperturbed by the housing
"Taking into account the recent data, and having eased monetary
policy at its May and August meetings, the Board judged the current
stance of monetary policy was consistent with sustainable growth in the
Australian economy and achieving the inflation target over time," the
Board said in its minutes.
"The Reserve Bank has an inflation target of between 2 to 3 per cent, and the rate cuts in May and August were prompted by weak inflation figures in the March and June quarters."
AUD/USD M5: 18 pips price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event
Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
is near and below 100 SMA/200 SMA for 1.1197 resistance level to be tested for the bullish reversal. The price is located within
the following support/resistance
price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for EUR/USD to be on bearish condition with the strong support level to be around 1.1100 for example:
"We turned bearish EUR yesterday but indicated that any decline is
expected to encounter solid support at 1.1100. In other words, the
downside potential appears to be limited. That said, the outlook for EUR
is deemed as bearish until there is a break above 1.1240."
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD: U.S. Residential Building Permits2016-09-20 12:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.
From Business Insider article:
U.S. housing starts fell more than expected in August as building
activity declined broadly after two straight months of solid
increases, but a rebound in permits for single-family dwellings
suggested demand for housing remained intact.
Groundbreaking decreased 5.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted
annual pace of 1.14 million units, the Commerce Department said
on Tuesday. July's starts were unrevised at a 1.21 million-unit
Permits for future construction slipped 0.4 percent to a 1.14
million-unit rate last month as approvals for the volatile
multi-family homes segment tumbled 7.2 percent to a 402,000
unit-rate. Permits for single-family homes, the largest segment
of the market, surged 3.7 percent to a 737,000-unit pace.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts falling
to a 1.19 million-unit pace last month and building permits
rising to a 1.17 million-unit rate.
USD/CAD M5: 20 pips price movement by U.S. Building Permits news events
AUD/USD M5: 13 pips price movement by U.S. Building Permits news events
USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of Canada Gov Poloz Speaks and 32 pips range price movement
2016-09-20 16:50 GMT | [CAD - BoC Gov Poloz Speaks]
[CAD - BoC Gov Poloz Speaks] = Speech at the Chartered Financial Analysts Society, Quebec.
"It’s time to conclude. What I’ve tried to
do today is be clear about the forces that have brought about this
period of ultra-low interest rates and help identify the implications.
While monetary policy actions played a role in the decline of interest
rates, the Bank sets its policy rate to meet its primary mission:
returning inflation sustainably to target, thus helping to get the
economy back to full output. In this sense, ultra-low interest rates are
a symptom of the conditions we face, conditions that we believe are
improving over time."
"But some of the forces leading to low interest rates will persist for
a long time, so we need to prepare for lower for longer. Individuals
need to plan for retirement with different assumptions about longevity,
interest rates and growth. Businesses need to make sure their
expectations about investment returns reflect the current and likely
future reality and reconfigure their investment plans accordingly. And
policy-makers need to make sure they are working to increase the
economy’s potential output and reduce uncertainty—whether economic,
political or regulatory—that may be holding back investment."
"What the Bank can, and will, continue to do is to provide certainty
about the future value of money through inflation control. Together, we
can make the necessary adjustments and boost confidence that will foster
the economic growth we all want to see."
USD/CAD M5: 32 pips range price movement by Bank of Canada Gov Poloz Speaks news event
USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of Japan Policy Rate and 134 pips price movement
2016-09-21 04:18 GMT | [JPY - BoJ Policy Rate]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)
[JPY - BoJ Policy Rate] = Interest rate levied on excess current account balances held at the BOJ.
Among the changes, the Bank
of Japan (BOJ) said it would make yield curve control a centerpiece of
its new policy framework, by a seven-to-two vote. It said it would buy
10-year JGBs so that the yield would hover around zero percent.
The changes indicated the
central bank's promised comprehensive review of the effectiveness of its
policies was fruitful, and many of the new policies appeared to address
critics' concerns about negative effects of the BOJ's aggressive easing
The BOJ eliminated the
maturity range for its Japan government bond purchases and it abandoned
its target to increase the monetary base by 80 trillion yen a year,
although the central bank said it currently plans to keep buying bonds
so that the balance of its holdings increase by that amount.
It kept its deposit rate unchanged at negative 0.1 percent.
USD/JPY M5: 134 pips price movement by Bank of Japan Policy Rate news event
broke 1.1150 support level to below for the primary bearish trend to be continuing: the price is on ranging within
the following narrow support/resistance
price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for the bearish condition to be continuing with 1.1100 strong support level:
"There is not much to add as EUR spiked to a high of 1.1213 yesterday but
eased off quickly to end near the day’s low. The outlook is still
bearish but as highlighted in recent updates, any decline is expected to
encounter solid support at 1.1100."