Technical Targets for NZD/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
H4 price was bounced from 0.7284 and 200 SMA to above to the bullish area of the chart with the traded within
the following support/resistance
price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for this pair to be on ranging market condition within 0.7240/0.7380 levels:
"The breach of 0.7340 indicates that the recent bearish phase has ended.
The outlook for NZD from here is unclear and we prefer to hold a neutral
view and expect this pair to trade listlessly between 0.7240 and
0.7380. Looking further ahead, the downside appears to be more
vulnerable but a sustained weakness is likely only if there is a break
below the very strong 0.7220/40 support zone."
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD: FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate2016-09-21 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the
Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.
"Fed fund futures, contracts that investors use to bet on interest rate
movements, imply that there is a 60 per cent chance of a hike at the
December meeting, up slightly from 59 per cent ahead of today’s
decision, reports Robin Wigglesworth in New York."
NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBNZ Official Cash Rate and 59 pips range price movement
2016-09-21 21:00 GMT | [NZD - Official Cash Rate]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
[NZD - Official Cash Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight.
"Global growth is below trend despite being supported by unprecedented
levels of monetary stimulus. Significant surplus capacity remains
across many economies and, along with low commodity prices, is
suppressing global inflation. Volatility in global markets has increased
in recent weeks, with government bond yields rising and equities coming
off their highs. The prospects for global growth and commodity prices
remain uncertain. Political uncertainty remains."
"Weak global conditions and low interest rates relative to New Zealand
are placing upward pressure on the New Zealand dollar exchange rate.
The trade-weighted exchange rate is higher than assumed in the August Statement.
Although this may partly reflect improved export prices, the high
exchange rate continues to place pressure on the export and
import-competing sectors and, together with low global inflation, is
causing negative inflation in the tradables sector. A decline in the
exchange rate is needed."
NZD/USD M5: 59 pips range price movement by RBNZ Official Cash Rate news event
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Gov Lowe Speaks and 28 pips range price movement
2016-09-22 00:00 GMT | [AUD - RBA Gov Lowe Speaks]
[AUD - RBA Gov Lowe Speaks] = Opening Statement to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, in Canberra
From SBS article: RBA governor Philip Lowe says a lower Australian dollar would be helpful
to amplify the positive effects of its falls in recent years
A lower Australian dollar would be helpful in amplifying the
economic benefits of its recent falls, Philip Lowe has said at his first
appearance as Reserve Bank governor.
"Of course most central banks say the same thing - most people would
like a slightly lower exchange rate and I think it reflects the
deficiency in aggregate demand in the global economy," Mr Lowe told a
hearing of the House of Representatives economic committee in Sydney.
"Many of my peers think the same, but of course we can't all have a lower exchange rate," he said.
AUD/USD M5: 28 pips range price movement by RBA Gov Lowe Speaks news event
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD: U.S. Jobless Claims2016-09-22 12:30 GMT | [USD - Unemployment Claims]
if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
EUR/USD M5: 7 pips range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events
AUD/USD M5: 8 pips price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events
USD/CAD M5: 11 pips range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events
Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
H4 price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA levels in the bearish area of the chart and within the following support/resistance
price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for this pair to be on bearish market condition with the seconday ranging way:
"We highlighted the rapidly waning momentum yesterday and advocated
shorts to book some profit at 1.3035. Subsequently, GBP rallied strongly
and edged 1 pip above our stop-loss at 1.3120 (overnight high of
1.3121). From here, the risk of a short-term low would continue to
increase and a clear break above 1.3120 would not be surprising (unless
GBP can move and stay below 1.3035 within the next 1 to 2 days)."
Trading News Events: Canada Consumer Price Index (adapted from the article)
Bullish CAD Trade: Headline & Core CPI Beat Market Expectations
is located within 200-day SMA (200 SMA) and 100-day SMA (100 SMA) in the
ranging bearish area
of the chart waiting for the direction of the trend: the price was bounced from 200 SMA level and 1.3253 resistance level to below for the 100 SMA with 1.2999 to be tested to below for the primary bearish trend to be resumed. RSI
indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing in the near future.
(all images/charts were made using Metatrader 5 software and free indicators from MQL5 CodeBase)
USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Consumer Price Index and 123 pips range price movement
2016-09-23 12:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
USD/CAD M5: 123 pips range price movement by Canada's Consumer Price Index news event
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)
Dollar Index - "Where rate speculation will offer the most proactive market
influence, it is important to keep a weathered eye out for those
influences that seem inert but can redefine the landscape should they
stir. In the list of sidelined themes, risk trends remains a top
consideration. The volatility and volume that revived capital markets on
Friday the 9th is holding despite the
familiar sense of lethargy trying to push back in. At present, any
market-wide sentiment shifts immediately ahead would come without clear
warning in scheduled events. However, if fear does start to shake loose
investors, liquidity is likely to amplify the risk aversion and quickly
rally the Dollar on inflows."
USD/JPY - "In theory the BoJ has committed itself to limitless bond purchases
if it is to maintain a specific target on the 10-year JGB yield. In
practice, however, the targeted bond was already trading just barely
above the bank’s target. Nothing will change absent a material rally in
JGB’s, and traders are effectively left with the status quo. Japanese Yen traders are likewise left with an effectively unchanged fundamental outlook, and this in itself favors a continued JPY rally (USD/JPY decline) versus the US Dollar. Only a material break above key range highs would shift our near-term trading bias on the USD/JPY."
GBP/USD - "GBP/USD stands at risk of breaking down from
the triangle/wedge formation carried over from the previous month as the
pair trades to fresh monthly lows going into the final week of
September, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be
highlighting a similar dynamic as it fails to preserve the bullish
formation carried over from the summer months. In turn, a break/close
below the Fibonacci overlap around 1.2920 (100% expansion) to 1.2950
(23.6% expansion) may open up the next downside area of interest around
1.2630 (38.2% retracement), but the pound-dollar may continue to
consolidate within a wedge/triangle formation should Fed officials fail
to prop up interest-rate expectation."
AUD/USD - "The voting pattern at last week’s FOMC
meeting seems to nearly assure the former. As for the latter, Yellen’s
assertion that things need only remain the same between now and the end
of the year to warrant a hike keeps the bar relatively low. On balance,
this hints the Aussie may find its way lower anew as the prospect of
nearing stimulus withdrawal weighs on risk appetite and drives an
adverse shift in yield spreads."
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer, Chair Janet Yellen, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Kansas City Fed President Esther George and Fed Governor Jerome Powell
slated for speeches. Also note we get the third and final revision of
2Q GDP with consensus estimates calling for an uptick in the annualized
rate to 1.3% q/q from 1.1% q/q. Stronger US data could weigh on gold
prices in the near-term but the technicals suggest that gold is primed
for volatility in the days ahead."
Weekly Outlook: 2016, September 25 - October 02 (based on the article)
The Fed came and went and so did the BOJ, leaving a mixed picture after the high tension. Speeches from Yellen and Draghi among others, US Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods orders and GDP data from the US, UK, and Canada, stand out. These are the highlights on forex calendar.