NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Gross Domestic Product and 30 pips price movement
2016-09-14 22:45 GMT | [NZD - GDP]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
[NZD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
NZD/USD M5: 30 pips price movement by New Zealand Gross Domestic Product news event
Trading News Events: Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (adapted from the article)
Bullish GBP Trade: BoE Implements Range of New Easing Measures
is located below 200-day SMA (200 SMA) and 100-day SMA (100 SMA) in the
of the chart: the price is on ranging within the narrow support
resistance levels waiting for the direction of the bearish trend to be
resumed or the secondary bear market rally to be started. descending
triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the
bearish continuation, and RSI
indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing in the
(all images/charts were made using Metatrader 5 software and free indicators from MQL5 CodeBase)
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoE Official Rate and 62 pips price movement
2016-09-15 11:00 GMT | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight.
GBP/USD M5: 62 pips price movement by BoE Official Rate news event
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD: U.S. Retail Sales and U.S. Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey2016-09-15 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.
2016-09-15 12:30 GMT | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]
[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.
EUR/USD M5: 20 pips price movement by U.S. Retail Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index news events
USD/CAD M5: 57 pips range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index news events
AUD/USD M5: 42 pips range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index news events
GBP/USD: trading near 1.3198 level for direction (adapted from the article)
M30 intra-day price was on breakout: the price broke 100 SMA level to above for the possible bullish reversal. But the price was bounced from 200 SMA to below for the breakdpown of the price movement. GBP/USD price is traded near 1.3198 level for the bearish breakout to be continuing or to the bear market rally to be started.
"The GBP/USD is trading near daily lows after the BOE (Bank of England)
kept key interest rates flat at 0.25%. While it was expected that rates
would be kept flat, the Pound is still losing ground to the majors as
traders are speculating that rates may be cut in the future. Technically
the GBP/USD is currently finding support at a short-term retracement
value near 1.3193. This area is represented in the graph below as a
61.8% retracement from yesterday’s low of 1.3138 to the high of 1.3278.
Now traders will wait to see if prices recover here, or if the Cable is
set to decline further in the short term."
The most likely scenario for the price movement for today is the following: the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.
USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Monthly Survey of Manufacturing and 30 pips price movement
2016-09-16 12:30 GMT | [CAD - Manufacturing Sales]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
[CAD - Manufacturing Sales] = Change in the total value of sales made by manufacturers.
"Manufacturing sales edged up 0.1% in July to $50.7 billion. Higher
sales in the food, petroleum and coal products, and primary metals
industries were largely offset by a decrease in the production of
aerospace product and parts, and by lower machinery sales."
sales were up in 9 of 21 industries, representing about 54% of the
manufacturing sector. Non-durable goods rose 1.0% to $23.6 billion,
while durable goods decreased 0.7% to $27.0 billion."
"Constant dollar sales increased 0.6%, indicating that a higher volume of goods was sold in July."
USD/CAD M5: 30 pips price movement by Canada's Monthly Survey of Manufacturing news event
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Consumer Price Index and 40 pips price movement
2016-09-16 12:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]
[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
EUR/USD M5: 40 pips price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news event
Weekly Outlook: 2016, September 18 - September 25 (based on the article)
The US dollar had a positive week, resisting unconvincing data. Now comes the biggest test: the Fed decision. In addition, we have US Building Permits, rate decisions in Japan and in New Zealand, as well as other events. These are the main events for this week.
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)
Dollar Index - "In the event of full-scale risk aversion, the Dollar will not immediately jump to its haven status.
Rather, the first phase of sentiment souring would be a diminished
economic outlook and the subsequent loss of further yield potential. The
more rapidly confidence falls apart, the better for USD
as it will revive the absolute safe haven role. Sentiment however does
not just hang on the Fed alone. We have seen volatility and volume rise
through other contributions this past week. The BoJ’s quickly failing
credibility along with the all-out doves could spark fears for the end
of a stimulus-supported market boom. Brexit fears stirred this past week
could infect deeper financial flaws. Or, the ‘animal spirits’
themselves could rise. Watch sentiment and the Fed through these tenuous
GBP/USD - "In turn, GBP/USD may continue to shed the
advance from the August low (1.2854), with the exchange rate failing to
preserve the monthly opening range, and the pair may ultimately threaten
the post ‘Brexit’ wedge/triangle formation in the days ahead should the
FOMC meeting boost interest-rate expectations. However, the pair may
continue to consolidate within the near-term holding pattern if Fed
officials largely endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy
and show a greater willingness to further delay the normalization cycle."
AUD/USD - "Although Fed officials have claimed that
every policy meeting may produce a rate hike, their clear desire not to
trigger market panic suggests that they will not opt to change things
without an opportunity to thoroughly explain in detail. This means that
after this week’s outing, the next opportunity for stimulus withdrawal
comes in December. Between now and then, another opportunity to update
traders will come in November, offering the FOMC a chance to up- or
down-shift the projected rate hike path and limit surprise risk. Keeping
this flexibility will mean that the narrative emerging from the
upcoming announcement will need to be cautious but unmistakably hawkish.
This bodes ill for risk appetite as well as the Aussie’s yield
advantage, threatening to deliver the currency a third consecutive
NZD/USD - "We’re going to hold a neutral forecast on the New Zealand Dollar
for the week ahead, with a warning of caution around this upcoming RBNZ
meeting as the bank will be making the announcement in what could be
extremely volatile market conditions in the wake of FOMC."
USD/CAD - "The heavy economic data points
this week will take place on Friday, which will be after the dust
settles from the international development such as the Central Bank
triple-header on September 21. On Tuesday, Bank of Canada Governor
Stephen Poloz will be speaking in Quebec City, which will be followed by
a press conference. Friday will provide the Canadian Dollar an
opportunity to reverse its trend of negative economic surprises with
Retail Sales (exp. -0.1 MoM), and the Consumer Price Index (exp. 1.3% YoY.) Because this is the key gauge for inflation in Canada,
a disappointment here coupled with positive developments south of the
Canadian Border could put further selling pressure on the Loonie."
USD/CNH - "Next week, traders will want to watch two
indicators for clues of the lower bound of the USD/CNH: A) The PBOC’s
guidance – the last Yuan fix issued by the PBOC before the holiday was
6.6726. The USD/CNH has already traded below this level. Yuan’s
reference rate set after the reopen of onshore markets could tell us
whether the Central Bank confirms this Yuan strength. B) HIBOR rates:
tightened Yuan liquidity will increase the cost of shorting the Yuan and
thus could hold the USD/CNH at low levels. The average level of HIBOR
O/N in August was 1.41% and the average over the past 12 months was
2.56%. If the HIBOR read on next Monday is still significantly higher
than these levels, it may indicate uneased condition in offshore and a
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Gold is eyeing a key near-term support confluence into the close of the week at 1302/04
where the 100% extension of the decline off the early high converges on
the 100-day moving average, the monthly low & the May high. The
immediate downside bias is at risk while above this level near-term with
initial resistance eyed at the monthly low-day close at 1323 backed by 1330."