Portfolio Risk Model using Kelly Criterion and Monte Carlo Simulation
For decades, traders have been using the Kelly Criterion formula to determine the optimal proportion of capital to allocate to an investment or bet to maximize long-term growth while minimizing the risk of ruin. However, blindly following Kelly Criterion using the result of a single backtest is often dangerous for individual traders, as in live trading, trading edge diminishes over time, and past performance is no predictor of future result. In this article, I will present a realistic approach to applying the Kelly Criterion for one or more EA's risk allocation in MetaTrader 5, incorporating Monte Carlo simulation results from Python.
Pipelines in MQL5
In this piece, we look at a key data preparation step for machine learning that is gaining rapid significance. Data Preprocessing Pipelines. These in essence are a streamlined sequence of data transformation steps that prepare raw data before it is fed to a model. As uninteresting as this may initially seem to the uninducted, this ‘data standardization’ not only saves on training time and execution costs, but it goes a long way in ensuring better generalization. In this article we are focusing on some SCIKIT-LEARN preprocessing functions, and while we are not exploiting the MQL5 Wizard, we will return to it in coming articles.
Building A Candlestick Trend Constraint Model (Part 7): Refining our model for EA development
In this article, we will delve into the detailed preparation of our indicator for Expert Advisor (EA) development. Our discussion will encompass further refinements to the current version of the indicator to enhance its accuracy and functionality. Additionally, we will introduce new features that mark exit points, addressing a limitation of the previous version, which only identified entry points.
Finding custom currency pair patterns in Python using MetaTrader 5
Are there any repeating patterns and regularities in the Forex market? I decided to create my own pattern analysis system using Python and MetaTrader 5. A kind of symbiosis of math and programming for conquering Forex.
Creating 3D bars based on time, price and volume
The article dwells on multivariate 3D price charts and their creation. We will also consider how 3D bars predict price reversals, and how Python and MetaTrader 5 allow us to plot these volume bars in real time.
Moving to MQL5 Algo Forge (Part 2): Working with Multiple Repositories
In this article, we are considering one of the possible approaches to organizing the storage of the project's source code in a public repository. We will distribute the code across different branches to establish clear and convenient rules for the project development.
News Trading Made Easy (Part 6): Performing Trades (III)
In this article news filtration for individual news events based on their IDs will be implemented. In addition, previous SQL queries will be improved to provide additional information or reduce the query's runtime. Furthermore, the code built in the previous articles will be made functional.
Developing a multi-currency Expert Advisor (Part 12): Developing prop trading level risk manager
In the EA being developed, we already have a certain mechanism for controlling drawdown. But it is probabilistic in nature, as it is based on the results of testing on historical price data. Therefore, the drawdown can sometimes exceed the maximum expected values (although with a small probability). Let's try to add a mechanism that ensures guaranteed compliance with the specified drawdown level.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 17): Multicurrency Trading
Trading across multiple currencies is not available by default when an expert advisor is assembled via the wizard. We examine 2 possible hacks traders can make when looking to test their ideas off more than one symbol at a time.
From Novice to Expert: Reporting EA — Setting up the work flow
Brokerages often provide trading account reports at regular intervals, based on a predefined schedule. These firms, through their API technologies, have access to your account activity and trading history, allowing them to generate performance reports on your behalf. Similarly, the MetaTrader 5 terminal stores detailed records of your trading activity, which can be leveraged using MQL5 to create fully customized reports and define personalized delivery methods.
Building A Candlestick Trend Constraint Model (Part 5): Notification System (Part I)
We will breakdown the main MQL5 code into specified code snippets to illustrate the integration of Telegram and WhatsApp for receiving signal notifications from the Trend Constraint indicator we are creating in this article series. This will help traders, both novices and experienced developers, grasp the concept easily. First, we will cover the setup of MetaTrader 5 for notifications and its significance to the user. This will help developers in advance to take notes to further apply in their systems.
Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 2)
Category Theory is a diverse and expanding branch of Mathematics which as of yet is relatively uncovered in the MQL5 community. These series of articles look to introduce and examine some of its concepts with the overall goal of establishing an open library that attracts comments and discussion while hopefully furthering the use of this remarkable field in Traders' strategy development.
Developing a multi-currency Expert Advisor (Part 4): Pending virtual orders and saving status
Having started developing a multi-currency EA, we have already achieved some results and managed to carry out several code improvement iterations. However, our EA was unable to work with pending orders and resume operation after the terminal restart. Let's add these features.
Developing an MQTT client for MetaTrader 5: a TDD approach — Part 3
This article is the third part of a series describing our development steps of a native MQL5 client for the MQTT protocol. In this part, we describe in detail how we are using Test-Driven Development to implement the Operational Behavior part of the CONNECT/CONNACK packet exchange. At the end of this step, our client MUST be able to behave appropriately when dealing with any of the possible server outcomes from a connection attempt.
Integrating MQL5 with data processing packages (Part 2): Machine Learning and Predictive Analytics
In our series on integrating MQL5 with data processing packages, we delve in to the powerful combination of machine learning and predictive analysis. We will explore how to seamlessly connect MQL5 with popular machine learning libraries, to enable sophisticated predictive models for financial markets.
Using association rules in Forex data analysis
How to apply predictive rules of supermarket retail analytics to the real Forex market? How are purchases of cookies, milk and bread related to stock exchange transactions? The article discusses an innovative approach to algorithmic trading based on the use of association rules.
Mastering Quick Trades: Overcoming Execution Paralysis
The UT BOT ATR Trailing Indicator is a personal and customizable indicator that is very effective for traders who like to make quick decisions and make money from differences in price referred to as short-term trading (scalpers) and also proves to be vital and very effective for long-term traders (positional traders).
Brain Storm Optimization algorithm (Part II): Multimodality
In the second part of the article, we will move on to the practical implementation of the BSO algorithm, conduct tests on test functions and compare the efficiency of BSO with other optimization methods.
From Novice to Expert: Forex Market Periods
Every market period has a beginning and an end, each closing with a price that defines its sentiment—much like any candlestick session. Understanding these reference points allows us to gauge the prevailing market mood, revealing whether bullish or bearish forces are in control. In this discussion, we take an important step forward by developing a new feature within the Market Periods Synchronizer—one that visualizes Forex market sessions to support more informed trading decisions. This tool can be especially powerful for identifying, in real time, which side—bulls or bears—dominates the session. Let’s explore this concept and uncover the insights it offers.
Creating a Trading Administrator Panel in MQL5 (Part VIII): Analytics Panel
Today, we delve into incorporating useful trading metrics within a specialized window integrated into the Admin Panel EA. This discussion focuses on the implementation of MQL5 to develop an Analytics Panel and highlights the value of the data it provides to trading administrators. The impact is largely educational, as valuable lessons are drawn from the development process, benefiting both upcoming and experienced developers. This feature demonstrates the limitless opportunities this development series offers in equipping trade managers with advanced software tools. Additionally, we'll explore the implementation of the PieChart and ChartCanvas classes as part of the continued expansion of the Trading Administrator panel’s capabilities.
Building a Keltner Channel Indicator with Custom Canvas Graphics in MQL5
In this article, we build a Keltner Channel indicator with custom canvas graphics in MQL5. We detail the integration of moving averages, ATR calculations, and enhanced chart visualization. We also cover backtesting to evaluate the indicator’s performance for practical trading insights.
Population optimization algorithms: Bat algorithm (BA)
In this article, I will consider the Bat Algorithm (BA), which shows good convergence on smooth functions.
Portfolio optimization in Forex: Synthesis of VaR and Markowitz theory
How does portfolio trading work on Forex? How can Markowitz portfolio theory for portfolio proportion optimization and VaR model for portfolio risk optimization be synthesized? We create a code based on portfolio theory, where, on the one hand, we will get low risk, and on the other, acceptable long-term profitability.
Utilizing CatBoost Machine Learning model as a Filter for Trend-Following Strategies
CatBoost is a powerful tree-based machine learning model that specializes in decision-making based on stationary features. Other tree-based models like XGBoost and Random Forest share similar traits in terms of their robustness, ability to handle complex patterns, and interpretability. These models have a wide range of uses, from feature analysis to risk management. In this article, we're going to walk through the procedure of utilizing a trained CatBoost model as a filter for a classic moving average cross trend-following strategy.
Pure implementation of RSA encryption in MQL5
MQL5 lacks built-in asymmetric cryptography, making secure data exchange over insecure channels like HTTP difficult. This article presents a pure MQL5 implementation of RSA using PKCS#1 v1.5 padding, enabling safe transmission of AES session keys and small data blocks without external libraries. This approach provides HTTPS-like security over standard HTTP and even more, it fills an important gap in secure communication for MQL5 applications.
Atomic Orbital Search (AOS) algorithm: Modification
In the second part of the article, we will continue developing a modified version of the AOS (Atomic Orbital Search) algorithm focusing on specific operators to improve its efficiency and adaptability. After analyzing the fundamentals and mechanics of the algorithm, we will discuss ideas for improving its performance and the ability to analyze complex solution spaces, proposing new approaches to extend its functionality as an optimization tool.
Developing a multi-currency Expert Advisor (Part 21): Preparing for an important experiment and optimizing the code
For further progress it would be good to see if we can improve the results by periodically re-running the automatic optimization and generating a new EA. The stumbling block in many debates about the use of parameter optimization is the question of how long the obtained parameters can be used for trading in the future period while maintaining the profitability and drawdown at the specified levels. And is it even possible to do this?
News Trading Made Easy (Part 5): Performing Trades (II)
This article will expand on the trade management class to include buy-stop and sell-stop orders to trade news events and implement an expiration constraint on these orders to prevent any overnight trading. A slippage function will be embedded into the expert to try and prevent or minimize possible slippage that may occur when using stop orders in trading, especially during news events.
Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 7): Multi, Relative and Indexed Domains
Category Theory is a diverse and expanding branch of Mathematics which is only recently getting some coverage in the MQL5 community. These series of articles look to explore and examine some of its concepts & axioms with the overall goal of establishing an open library that provides insight while also hopefully furthering the use of this remarkable field in Traders' strategy development.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 64): Using Patterns of DeMarker and Envelope Channels with the White-Noise Kernel
The DeMarker Oscillator and the Envelopes' indicator are momentum and support/ resistance tools that can be paired when developing an Expert Advisor. We continue from our last article that introduced these pair of indicators by adding machine learning to the mix. We are using a recurrent neural network that uses the white-noise kernel to process vectorized signals from these two indicators. This is done in a custom signal class file that works with the MQL5 wizard to assemble an Expert Advisor.
Creating a Trading Administrator Panel in MQL5 (Part IX): Code Organization (IV): Trade Management Panel class
This discussion covers the updated TradeManagementPanel in our New_Admin_Panel EA. The update enhances the panel by using built-in classes to offer a user-friendly trade management interface. It includes trading buttons for opening positions and controls for managing existing trades and pending orders. A key feature is the integrated risk management that allows setting stop loss and take profit values directly in the interface. This update improves code organization for large programs and simplifies access to order management tools, which are often complex in the terminal.
Implementation of the Augmented Dickey Fuller test in MQL5
In this article we demonstrate the implementation of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, and apply it to conduct cointegration tests using the Engle-Granger method.
From Novice to Expert: Animated News Headline Using MQL5 (IX) — Multiple Symbol Management on a single chart for News Trading
News trading often requires managing multiple positions and symbols within a very short time due to heightened volatility. In today’s discussion, we address the challenges of multi-symbol trading by integrating this feature into our News Headline EA. Join us as we explore how algorithmic trading with MQL5 makes multi-symbol trading more efficient and powerful.
Market Reactions and Trading Strategies in Response to Dividend Announcements: Evaluating the Efficient Market Hypothesis in Stock Trading
In this article, we will analyse the impact of dividend announcements on stock market returns and see how investors can earn more returns than those offered by the market when they expect a company to announce dividends. In doing so, we will also check the validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in the context of the Indian Stock Market.
Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 5): Equalizers
Category Theory is a diverse and expanding branch of Mathematics which is only recently getting some coverage in the MQL5 community. These series of articles look to explore and examine some of its concepts & axioms with the overall goal of establishing an open library that provides insight while also hopefully furthering the use of this remarkable field in Traders' strategy development.
Population optimization algorithms: Binary Genetic Algorithm (BGA). Part II
In this article, we will look at the binary genetic algorithm (BGA), which models the natural processes that occur in the genetic material of living things in nature.
Black Hole Algorithm (BHA)
The Black Hole Algorithm (BHA) uses the principles of black hole gravity to optimize solutions. In this article, we will look at how BHA attracts the best solutions while avoiding local extremes, and why this algorithm has become a powerful tool for solving complex problems. Learn how simple ideas can lead to impressive results in the world of optimization.
Moving to MQL5 Algo Forge (Part 3): Using External Repositories in Your Own Projects
Let's explore how you can start integrating external code from any repository in the MQL5 Algo Forge storage into your own project. In this article, we finally turn to this promising, yet more complex, task: how to practically connect and use libraries from third-party repositories within MQL5 Algo Forge.
Developing Trend Trading Strategies Using Machine Learning
This study introduces a novel methodology for the development of trend-following trading strategies. This section describes the process of annotating training data and using it to train classifiers. This process yields fully operational trading systems designed to run on MetaTrader 5.
Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development (Part 8): Metrics Board
As one of the most powerful Price Action analysis toolkits, the Metrics Board is designed to streamline market analysis by instantly providing essential market metrics with just a click of a button. Each button serves a specific function, whether it’s analyzing high/low trends, volume, or other key indicators. This tool delivers accurate, real-time data when you need it most. Let’s dive deeper into its features in this article.