Forecast and levels for Dollar Index - page 13

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.04 15:46

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls: What will the data look like on Friday (based on the article)



Dollar Index Brainwashing chart by Metatrader 5


  • "The fact is that the U.S. weekly jobless claims data has dropped to the lowest level since 1969. According to the ADP research institute, American business added the most workers in seven months and all this is happening in the midst of the so-called trade war. So, the only number which can make the Fed leavened their rosy remarks on the economy further will be the US-NFP number."
  • "In simple words, at 185K the expectations for the U.S. NFP number are sky high. Speculators are even hoping for a number above 200K. But, the two most important numbers that traders will be looking at are the average hourly earnings number and the underemployment number. The last one is an indicator that represents the people who have given up looking for a job, in other words, slack in the labour market. Jerome Powell has already declared the special attention he pays to the average hourly earnings number. The expectation for the average hourly earnings m/m is 0.5%, while the previous reading was at 0.4%. The underemployment number printed a reading of 7.4% and if this number comes at 7.1%, it will be immensely positive for the dollar."

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The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.19 07:07

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index and USD/CNH: China Gross Domestic Product

2018-10-19 03:00 GMT | [CNY - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From mainichi.jp article :

  • "China's economy grew 6.5 percent from a year earlier during the July-September period due in part to still robust external demand, official data showed Friday, but the pace was the slowest since 2009 amid a tit-for-tat tariff escalation with the United States. Although the headline figure was in line with the government's target of around 6.5 percent for the year, it was down from the 6.7 percent growth in gross domestic product in the second quarter of this year."
  • "The latest GDP data came amid mounting fears that the world's second-biggest economy would be weighed down by an intensifying trade war with the United States, which has imposed higher tariffs on a wide range of imports from China."

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Dollar Index M15: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news events

Dollar Index M15: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news events

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USD/CNH M15: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news events

USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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The Dollar index in resistance zone

fxstrategist007, 2018.10.23 05:38

Even though the Dollar has been gaining strength versus the Euro and the Pound, its index has not been able to break above the 95.75 level, which is acting as a good resistance. Just above that level we can find the 96.00 level as shown on the daily chart, contributing to making that zone a good resistance. If the index manages to break above the 97.00 level, then it will go back to its bullish trend in the mid-term. To the downside, the 55 day EMA may act as support, along with the low at the 94.46 level. Below the 94.46 level its next support could be the 200 day EMA at the 93.88 level.


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.29 09:56

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index (DXY) chart by Metatrader 5

Dollar Index (DXY) - "The week ahead brings heavy-duty scheduled event risk back into the picture. October’s labor market data takes top billing, with expectations pointing to a pickup in payrolls growth. Wage inflation might prove to dominate the spotlight however. Average hourly earnings are expected to have grown at a blistering pace of 3.2 percent on-year, the fastest in almost a decade. hat may well amplify worries about an accelerated pace of Fed tightening even as a raft of destabilizing influences continues to encourage de-risking across financial markets. Italy’s populists have locked horns with the EU, a Brexit deal remains elusive and the trade war between the US and China shows no signs of abating. Meanwhile, rising borrowing costs are already threatening fiscal stability in key emerging markets."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.31 09:43

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/JPY and USD/CNH: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence

2018-10-30 14:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 135.3
  • forecast data is 136.3
  • actual data is 137.9 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased again in October, following a modest improvement in September. The Index now stands at 137.9 (1985=100), up from 135.3 in September. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – improved from 169.4 to 172.8. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – increased from 112.5 last month to 114.6 this month."

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Dollar Index H1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

Dollar Index H1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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USD/JPY H1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

USD/JPY H1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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USD/CNH H4: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

USD/JPY H1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread


 

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USD this week

Nofhan Ardiansyah, 2018.11.10 11:03

Usd still grow up on this week or may 2-3 weeks....

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.11.14 16:25

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, EUR/USD and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Consumer Price Index (CPI)

2018-11-14 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events

Dollar Index M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events

EUR/USD M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events

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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events

XAU/USD M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.11.29 03:58

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index (DXY) and GOLD (XAU/USD): Fed Chair Powell Speech

2018-11-28 17:00 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks]

[USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks] = Speech titled "The Federal Reserve's Framework for Monitoring Financial Stability" at The Economic Club of New York.

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From forbes article :

  • "Stocks surged after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a speech to the Economic Club of New York on November 28, 2018, where he introduced the Fed’s Financial Stability Report, inspired by and modeled after the European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review. The market became wildly enthusiastic when, a few minutes into the speech, he stated that interest rates “remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral”. Everyone interpreted this sentence as a signal that the Fed may be very close to the end of the tightening cycle. This immediately sparked a stock rally. But that was not the most important point of his speech. It was his recognition that “things often turn out to be quite different from even the most careful forecasts.” For that reason, he explained, any forecast to make policy has to be accompanied by recognizing and managing potential risks. While he did not mention “unknown unknowns” as former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld famously did in 2002, he listed four known risks the Fed is currently watching (and that the Financial Stability Report explores in depth). He quickly dispatched most of them, saying that the Fed does not think the financial sector has too much leverage or could run out of funding, or that there are any obvious bubbles in asset prices."

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DXY M5: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speech news events

DXY M5: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speech news events

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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speech news events

XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speech news events

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.12.14 18:47

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index and AUD/USD: U.S. Retail Sales

2018-12-14 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From official report :

  • "Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $513.5 billion, an increase of 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 4.2 percent (±0.5 percent) above November 2017. Total sales for the September 2018 through November 2018 period were up 4.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The September 2018 to October 2018 percent change was revised from up 0.8 percent(±0.5 percent) to up 1.1 percent (±0.2 percent)."
  • "Retail trade sales were up 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2018, and 4.0 percent(±0.5 percent) above last year. Nonstore Retailers were up10.8 percent (±1.4 percent) from November 2017, while Gasoline Stations were up 8.2 percent (±1.6 percent) from last year."

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Dollar Index M1: range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events

Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events

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AUD/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events

AUD/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events

=========

The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.12.17 07:32

Kathy Lien - 4 main reasons why the dollar keeps getting stronger (based on the article)

Dollar Index weekly chart with Retracement pattern by Metatrader 5

1. Good Data
2. Rising Interest Rates
3. Equity Market Pressure
4. Trade Policy

Three out of four of these factors will still draw investors into the greenback.

============

The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


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