Press review - page 615

[Icham Aidibe]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-trader-regulations/how-a-french-solo-trader-made-a-6-6-billion-unauthorized-bet-idUSKBN1JJ0SW

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD - daily primary bearish; 0.6825 is the key for the bearish trend to be continuing (based on the article)

• "You will note that the Morning Star bullish reversal pattern formed back in late-May failed to generate much follow-through and the downtrend since mid-April appears to be trying to resume course. Though at this point, we still do not have a weekly close below the March 2009 line. Instead, Kiwi Dollar tested horizontal support from May 2017."
• "Looking at the daily chart gives us a better picture of what has been going on around those key support areas. Now, another morning star has formed and warrants close attention as this could mean the pair may turn higher in the near-term. In fact, prices were unable to close below the May 16th low at 0.6852 and they stalled just above 0.6818 at one point."
• "All of this points to very stubborn and well-established floors that the pair will have to fall through before we can confirm that NZD/USD is heading for a lasting continuation of its downturn from mid-April. Nevertheless, a break below support (which is closely aligned with the 50% Fibonacci extension at 0.6788) opens the door to test the 61.8% level at 0.6723. At that point, we are looking at 2016 lows."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• iBBFill - indicator for MetaTrader 5 

[Sergey Golubev]

Dollar Index Intra-Day Fundamentals: FOMC Member Bostic Speech and range price movement 

2018-06-26 18:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Bostic Speaks]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[USD - FOMC Member Bostic Speaks] = Speech at the Birmingham Civil Rights Institute, in Alabama.

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From forexlive article :

• disruptions from trade war is going to be painful
• Fed's job is a lot harder amid trade uncertainty 

Meanwhile, while on the topic of auto tariffs, the major automotive trade group says that: 

• Buyers of imported vehicles would face an average price increase of $5800 from a 25% import tariff based on Commerce Department data 
• will tell trauma administration at 25% tariff on imported vehicles would cost US consumers 45 billion in higher vehicle costs 

The higher tariffs can also lead to US auto producers boosting the price of their domestically produced cars. If a tariff is 25% and the US car company can compete with a 10% increase, they might be inclined to raise their prices 15% all things being equal. Who wins? Not the consumer. 

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by FOMC Member Bostic Speech news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install 

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY - daily ranging near bearish rebersal (based on the article)

• "USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 50.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.0 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.5% lower than yesterday and 5.6% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.6% lower than yesterday and 6.8% lower from last week."
• "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDJPY prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USDJPY price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Dow Jones Industrial Average  - daily bearish reversal (based on the article)

D1 price broke 200 SMA to below for the bearish reversal to be started. The 55 SMA was not yet crossed with 200 SMA to below on close daily bar so the price may be bounced back to the bullish area soon.
Strategy: waiting for 55 SMA/200 SMA cross on daily chart together with 23,516 monthly last low as a support level for the final bearish daily reversal. 

• "The Dow Jones Industrial Average is the second-oldest stock index in existence, started in May of 1896 by Charles Dow and Edward Jones. Dow was an editor at the Wall Street Journal at the time, and his associate Edward Jones was a statistician looking for a simpler method of tracking market performance. The duo had created the Dow Jones Transportation Index in 1886 largely based around railroads, but as the US economy was becoming more industrialized they sought out a better way to gauge overall market performance and designed the Dow Jones Industrial Average around 30 industrial stocks. In the years since, the composition of the index has changed and that industrial connotation no longer applies as the index contains tech companies like Apple, IBM and Intel along with pharmaceutical companies like Merck and Pfizer."
• "As a result of the Dow Jones Industrial Average tracking 30 of the largest, most established companies in the US economy, the index remains attractive for those looking to focus on larger blue chip stocks. This can be attractive when trends display themselves across an asset class, such as we've seen over the past nine years in stocks out of the United States since the Global Financial Collapse. This can help traders glean a bias in a market, so that shorter-term day trading strategies can be focused in the direction of the prevailing trend."
• "One common way that traders measure or grade trends is with the 200 Day Moving Average. This is simply a 200-period moving average applied to the Daily chart, and when prices are above this level, traders can look at bullish strategies on shorter-term trading setups. Conversely, when prices cross-below this level, traders can then begin to look at bearish strategies under the expectation that prices may continue-lower."
• "As a general rule, traders should look to cut their losses short while letting their winners run, and this remains the case whether it's a longer-term strategy, or a shorter-term day trading approach."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with the following custom indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5 
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5 
• Double Smoothed Stochastic - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBNZ Rate Statement, Official Cash Rate and range price movement 

2018-06-27 22:00 GMT | [NZD - Official Cash Rate]

• past data is 1.75%
• forecast data is 1.75%
• actual data is 1.75% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Official Cash Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight.

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From official report :

• "The Official Cash Rate (OCR) will remain at 1.75 percent for now. However, we are well positioned to manage change in either direction – up or down – as necessary."
• "Our outlook for the New Zealand economy, as detailed in the May Monetary Policy Statement, remains intact. Employment is around its sustainable level and consumer price inflation remains below the 2 percent mid-point of our target, necessitating continued supportive monetary policy for some time to come."

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NZD/USD: range price movement by New Zealand Official Cash Rate news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install 

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and GOLD: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

2018-06-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

• past data is 2.2%
• forecast data is 2.2%
• actual data is 2.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

• "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2018 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.9 percent."

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EUR/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) news events

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GBP/USD M15: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) news events

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XAU/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) news events

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The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[moneymaker55]

Wondering! the time on economic calender is eastern standard time?? 

[Sergey Golubev]

moneymaker55:
Wondering! the time on economic calender is eastern standard time?? 

depends on which calendar.
if it is calendar on website (for example this mql5 calendar https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar ) so you can change the time to yours.

if it is the calendar which you see on Metatrader and on the charts of Metatrader so it is the time of the broker's server which is the time of the chart/price in Metatrader.

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD  - daily correction (based on the article)

Daily price is located above 55 SMA/200 SMA reversal levels in the primary bullish area of the chart: the price was bounced from 1.3364 resistance level to below for the possible correction to be stated.

• "Economic data has aggressively disappointed consensus for much of 2018. The Citi Economic Surprise Index for Canada has consistently fallen through Q2, and in so doing has hit the lowest levels (meaning aggressive disappointments to economist's expectations) since May 2013."
• "Despite the weakening data, not all is bad. Oil is on the rise as it recently touched the highest levels since 2014. The rise in oil has helped, but it has not been enough to prevent Canadian 2 year yields trade at their sharpest discount to the US equivalent."
• "BoC chief Stephen Poloz stated that the central bank retains expectations for higher borrowing costs in the economy, which caused the implied probability of an interest rate hike in July per the Overnight Index Swaps market at ~75%. Before Poloz's speech, the market was pricing in a ~55% chance."

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with the following custom indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5 
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5 
• Double Smoothed Stochastic - indicator for MetaTrader 5