University of Michigan United States Inflation Expectations

Country:
United States
USD, US dollar
Sector:
Prices
Low 4.9% 5.1%
5.1%
Last release Importance Actual Forecast
Previous
5.0%
4.9%
Next release Actual Forecast
Previous
  • Overview
  • Chart
  • History
  • Widget

University of Michigan Inflation Expectations demonstrate how US consumers estimate the possibility of growth in prices for goods and services for the next 12 months. The index is calculated monthly based on data collected from a telephone survey of at least 500 US households. The questionnaire includes more than 50 questions on three broad areas of consumer sentiment: personal finance, business conditions and purchasing power.

Inflationary expectations are evaluated based on how respondents answer the following questions:

  • Do you think prices in general may rise, fall or remain unchanged in the next 12 months?
  • What percentage of growth/fall do you expect in the next 12 months?

Also consumers forecast their real income for the same period.

Michigan University Inflation Expectations allows evaluating what dynamics consumers expect and how they may spend money in the future. The index normally correlates well with other indexes characterizing inflation (CPI, etc.). The questionnaire covers everyday life across the country, with the exception of Alaska and Hawaii. That is why the index is considered to be a representative leading indicator of inflation and consumer activity.

Lower readings indicate that consumers do not expect prices to rise. Conversely, the index growth suggests that households are ready for price increase. The Michigan Inflation Expectations index growth is generally seen as positive for the US dollar.

Last values:

actual data

forecast

The chart of the entire available history of the "University of Michigan United States Inflation Expectations" macroeconomic indicator. The dashed line shows the forecast values ​​of the economic indicator for the specified dates.

A significant deviation of a real value from a forecast one may cause a short-term strengthening or weakening of a national currency in the Forex market. The threshold values ​​of the indicators signaling the approach of the critical state of the national (local) economy occupy a special place.

Date (GMT)
Reference
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Nov 2022
4.9%
5.1%
5.1%
Nov 2022 prelim.
5.1%
5.1%
5.0%
Oct 2022
5.0%
5.1%
5.1%
Oct 2022 prelim.
5.1%
4.7%
4.7%
Sep 2022
4.7%
4.6%
4.6%
Sep 2022 prelim.
4.6%
4.9%
4.8%
Aug 2022
4.8%
5.0%
5.0%
Aug 2022 prelim.
5.0%
5.2%
5.2%
Jul 2022
5.2%
5.2%
5.2%
Jul 2022 prelim.
5.2%
5.4%
5.3%
Jun 2022
5.3%
5.4%
5.4%
Jun 2022 prelim.
5.4%
5.4%
5.3%
May 2022
5.3%
5.4%
5.4%
May 2022 prelim.
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
Apr 2022
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
Apr 2022 prelim.
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
Mar 2022
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
Mar 2022 prelim.
5.4%
5.0%
4.9%
Feb 2022
4.9%
5.0%
5.0%
Feb 2022 prelim.
5.0%
4.9%
4.9%
Jan 2022
4.9%
4.9%
4.9%
Jan 2022 prelim.
4.9%
4.9%
4.8%
Dec 2021
4.8%
4.9%
4.9%
Dec 2021 prelim.
4.9%
4.9%
4.9%
Nov 2021
4.9%
4.9%
4.9%
Nov 2021 prelim.
4.9%
4.8%
4.8%
Oct 2021
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
Oct 2021 prelim.
4.8%
4.7%
4.6%
Sep 2021
4.6%
4.7%
4.7%
Sep 2021 prelim.
4.7%
4.6%
4.6%
Aug 2021
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
Aug 2021 prelim.
4.6%
4.8%
4.7%
Jul 2021
4.7%
4.8%
4.8%
Jul 2021 prelim.
4.8%
3.9%
4.2%
Jun 2021
4.2%
4.0%
4.0%
Jun 2021 prelim.
4.0%
4.6%
4.6%
May 2021
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
May 2021 prelim.
4.6%
3.6%
3.4%
Apr 2021
3.4%
3.7%
3.7%
Apr 2021 prelim.
3.7%
3.1%
3.1%
Mar 2021
3.1%
3.1%
3.1%
Mar 2021 prelim.
3.1%
3.3%
3.3%
Feb 2021
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
Feb 2021 prelim.
3.3%
3.0%
3.0%
Jan 2021
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
Jan 2021 prelim.
3.0%
2.4%
2.5%
Dec 2020
2.5%
2.3%
2.3%
Dec 2020 prelim.
2.3%
2.8%
2.8%
Nov 2020
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
Nov 2020 prelim.
2.8%
2.6%
2.6%

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