Ifo Germany Business Expectations
The CESifo Group, consisting of the Center for Economic Studies (CES), the ifo Institute and the CESifo GmbH (Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research), is a unique research group in Europe in the field of economic research. In the opinion of the Senate of the Leibniz Association, an association of German research institutes of various disciplines based in Berlin, it is one of the leading European economic research institutes. The service spectrum ranges from internationally established service products such as the ifo Business Climate Index to internationally recognized research, the promotion of young scientists and the numerous, widely published contributions to the political debate at national and European level.
The ifo Institute determines the ifo Business Climate Index on a monthly basis. It is based on approximately 7,000 monthly reports from companies in the manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail sectors. Companies are asked to report their expectations for the next six months (ifo business outlook). They can mark their business expectations for the next six months as "more favourable", "stable" or "less favourable". The balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentage shares of the answers "more favourable" and "less favourable".
To calculate the index values of the economic outlook, the balances are increased by 200 and standardized to the average of a base year (currently 2015):
Index value = 100 * (current month balance + 200) / (base year average balance + 200).
A value above expectations is considered favourable for the euro rates, while lower values are considered negative.
The chart of the entire available history of the "Ifo Germany Business Expectations" macroeconomic indicator. The dashed line shows the forecast values of the economic indicator for the specified dates.
A significant deviation of a real value from a forecast one may cause a short-term strengthening or weakening of a national currency in the Forex market. The threshold values of the indicators signaling the approach of the critical state of the national (local) economy occupy a special place.
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