Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 193

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.14 15:27

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and NZD/USD: U.S. Advance Retail Sales

2016-10-14 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From MarketWatch article: U.S. retail sales snap back in September

"Sales at U.S. retail stores rebounded in September, with auto dealers and gas stations racking up the biggest gains, in a sign consumers are still spending fast enough to keep the economy on solid ground. Retail sales rose 0.6% last month to snap back from a small decline in August that was the first in five months. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast a 0.7% increase."


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EUR/USD M5: 25 pips range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events


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USD/CAD M5: 23 pips range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events


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NZD/USD M5: 24 pips price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.14 20:20

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and DAX Index: Fed Chair Yellen Speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank

2016-10-14 17:30 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks]

[USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks] = Speech named "Macroeconomic Research After the Crisis" at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s Annual Research Conference.

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From Bloomberg article: Yellen Sees ‘Plausible Ways’ Hot Economy Could Heal Growth

  • "Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said there are “plausible ways” that running the U.S. economy hot for a while could fix some of the damage caused to growth trends by the Great Recession."
  • "Increased business sales would almost certainly raise the productive capacity of the economy by encouraging additional capital spending,” Yellen said Friday in the text of a speech to a Boston Fed conference on the elusive economic recovery. “A tight labor market might draw in potential workers who would otherwise sit on the sidelines."
  • "Yellen pondered whether a “high-pressure economy” could reverse some of the damage done in the recession, including declines in research spending and labor force participation. In effect, that has been the Federal Open Market Committee’s bet this year, though Yellen cautioned that running a low-rate policy for too long “could have costs that exceed the benefits” by increasing financial risk or inflation."

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EUR/USD M5: 24 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speaks news events


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DAX Index M5 price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speaks news events



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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 16.10 - 23.10: daily bearish to be continuing; weekly breakdown to be started

Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.16 09:14

Daily price is on primary bearish market condition located below Ichimoku cloud and below Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bullish and the primary bearish trend on the chart. The price is breaking 1.0985 support level together with descending triangle pattern to below for the bearish trend to be continuing with 1.0911 nearest bearish target to re-enter.

Chinkou Span line is located below the price for the bearish trend to be continuing, Absolute Strength indicator and Trend Strength indicator are evaluating the trend as a primary bearish market condition in the near future.

If D1 price breaks 1.0985 support level on close bar so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started with 1.1122 level as a daily bearish target.
If D1 price breaks 1.1238 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the reversal of the daily price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1238 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.0911 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish
Resistance
Support
1.12381.0985
1.13261.0911

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : breakdown


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.17 17:42

Quick Technical Overview - GOLD: price reversed to the bearish with 1,241.34 support (adapted from the article)

Daily price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition. Fow now, the price is on ranging within narrow s/r levels waiting to be reversed back to the ranging bullish condition or for the bearish trend to be resumed.


  • "Gold prices remain in a holding pattern, with the open of Mondays trading marking the 6th session of consolidation for the commodity. Key daily resistance for the price of Gold remains above $1,265.34, while support is found near $1,241.27. Traders will be looking for Gold prices to breakout this week with the release of several high importance news events. This includes US CPI data released on Tuesday with an expectations set at 1.5% (YoY) (Sep), and Australian Employment Change data released on Wednesday with expectations of +15.0K (Sep)."
  • If the price breaks 1,241.34 support level to below on close daily bar so the primary bearish market condition will be continuing.
  • If daily price breaks 1,264.89 resistance level to above on close bar so the reversal to the ranging bullish condition will be started.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.19 08:16

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Real GDP and 77 pips range price movement

2016-10-19 02:00 GMT | [CNY - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From reuters article: China third quarter GDP grows 6.7 percent as expected as construction booms, debt rises

  • Some economists believe Beijing has had to "double down" on stimulus this year to meet its official growth range of 6.5 to 7 percent, and say the government's obsession with meeting hard targets may hurt both planned reforms and the long-term health of the world's second-largest economy. "So far this year they have clearly chosen to do everything they can to meet the growth targets, and now there is a little bit of an upward surprise from the housing market which actually will help them with GDP growth this year," said Louis Kuijs, head Of Asia economics at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong.
  • "The question really is, is the leadership willing to move to somewhat lower growth targets in order to put growth on a more sustainable footing, or will it feel obliged to continue to hang on to those very high growth targets."

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USD/CNH M5: 77 pips range price movement by China Real GDP news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.19 16:13

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoC vernight Rate and 46 pips range price movement

2016-10-19 14:00 GMT | [CAD - Overnight Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.

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From official report:

  • "The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent."
  • "The global economy is expected to regain momentum in the second half of this year and through 2017 and 2018. After a weak first half, the US economy in particular is strengthening: solid consumption is being underpinned by strong employment growth and robust consumer confidence. However, because of elevated uncertainty, US business investment is on a lower track than expected."
  • "Given the downward revision to the growth profile and the later closing of the output gap, the Bank considers the risks around its updated inflation outlook to be roughly balanced, albeit in a context of heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, the new housing measures should mitigate risks to the financial system over time. At present, the Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks is still in the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent."

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USD/CAD M5: 46 pips range price movement by BoC vernight Rate news event


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.20 10:07

Trading News Events: ECB Minimum Bid Rate (adapted from the article)

  • "Even though the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely anticipated to retain its current policy in October, the EUR/USD may face a sharp move should President Mario Draghi & Co. take additional steps to further support the monetary union."
  • "After cutting the growth forecast in September, the Governing Council may push out the deadline for its quantitative easing (QE) program and adjust the guidelines of its non-standard measures in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery. However, more of the same from the ECB may trigger a bullish reaction in the single-currency should the central bank stick to the March 2017 deadline for its asset-purchases."


Bearish EUR Trade: Governing Council Extends/Adjusts QE Program

  • "Need red, five-minute candle following the policy statement to consider a short EUR/USD trade."
  • "If market reaction favors a bearish Euro trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit."
Bullish EUR Trade: ECB Preserves Current Policy, Endorses Wait-and-See Approach
  • "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade."
  • "Implement same strategy as the bearish euro trade, just in the opposite direction."


Daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price is testing 1.0969 support level together withdescending triangle pattern to below for 1.0954 nearest bearish target to re-enter.

  • If D1 price breaks 1.1058 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  • If price breaks 1.0969 support to below on close daily bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed with 1.0954 re-enter target.
  • If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

EUR/USD M5: 25 pips range price movement by ECB Minimum Bid Rate news events


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.20 15:16

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD : Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

2016-10-20 12:30 GMT | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.

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From official report:

"The index for current manufacturing activity in the region edged down, from a reading of 12.8 in September to 9.7 this month. The index has now been positive for three consecutive months (see Chart 1). Other broad indicators showed notable improvement. The new orders index improved markedly this month, increasing from 1.4 in September to 16.3 in October. The percentage of firms reporting increases in new orders this month rose to 40 percent from 30 percent last month. The current shipments index also improved, rising 24 points to 15.3. The delivery times, unfilled orders, and inventories indexes remained weak, however, with all registering negative readings, although they were less negative than in September."


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EUR/USD M5: 75 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events


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USD/CAD M5: 38 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events



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Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.21 07:23

Hang Seng Index: End Of Week Technicals - key resistance level to be tested for the bullish reversal

This trading week is ended with some results concerning Hang Seng Index: the price was bounded from the lower band of Ichimoku cloud to the Senlou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. If the price breaks Senkou Span together with 23,652 resistance level to above so the daily bullish reversal will be started.

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D1 price is located to be inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging market condition with the secondary rally to be going on for whole the week for example. The price is located within the following key reversal s/r levels:

  • 23,652 resistance level located on in the beginning of the bullish trend to be started, and
  • 22,927 support level located near and below Ichimoku cloud for the primary bearish trend to be resumed.


H4 price is on local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition:

  • Chinkou Span line is located near and below the price for the ranging bearish condition by the direction.
  • Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the rally to be continuing.
  • Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the direction of the trend.
  • The nearest resistance level for the bullish reversal is 23,652.
  • The nearest support level for the bearish trend to be resumed is 22,927.


If H4 price breaks 23,652 resistance level so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If H4 price breaks 22,927 support so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

Resistance
 Support
23,65223,108
N/A22,927

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : rally