Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 198

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.10 08:02

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBNZ Official Cash Rate and 121 pips range price movement

2016-11-09 20:00 GMT | [NZD - Official Cash Rate]

  • past data is 2.00%
  • forecast data is 1.75%
  • actual data is 1.75% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Official Cash Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight.

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From official report:

  • "The Reserve Bank today reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 1.75 percent."
  • "Significant surplus capacity exists across the global economy despite improved economic indicators in some countries. Global inflation remains weak even though commodity prices have come off their lows. Political uncertainty remains heightened and market volatility is elevated."
  • "Weak global conditions and low interest rates relative to New Zealand are keeping upward pressure on the New Zealand dollar exchange rate. The exchange rate remains higher than is sustainable for balanced economic growth and, together with low global inflation, continues to generate negative inflation in the tradables sector. A decline in the exchange rate is needed."

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NZD/USD M5: 121 pips range price movement by RBNZ Official Cash Rate news event

 


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.10 08:58

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: bullish reanging for the bullish continuation or to the correction to be started (based on the article)

The daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: price is on ranging within 1.3464 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed and 1.3263 support level for the secondary correction to be started.

  • "On Monday, Donald Trump said that voters in the U.S. would deliver “Brexit plus, plus, plus.” Now, traders are looking at that statement to understand what the implications of the statement mean, and how trade partners could be affected by President-Elect Trump’s new policies. The implications of new trade policies that are likely to be redrawn under the Trump Presidency was most clearly seen against the Mexican Peso that fell by nearly ~12% early on Wednesday as the votes were tallied to the point to declare Trump as the President-Elect."
  • "Many traders have looked at yields post-Election as an indication of what is expected from Central Banks. Yields have moved higher however the spreads of sovereign debt against the U.S. 2-year, which can be seen as a proxy of the Federal Reserve’s policy rate path has widened on the day after the election. Longer on the curve, the US 10-Yr yield has an intraday move of 23 bps that would be a record intraday move, and the current open-close range would be the largest move since 2011."

If D1 price breaks 1.3263 support level on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If D1 price breaks 1.2999 support level on close bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition. 
If D1 price breaks 1.3464 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed with 1.3524 nearest bullish target.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.3464 for close bar for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.3263 support level on close daily bar for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
Support
1.34641.3263
1.35241.2999

SUMMARY: ranging

TREND: bullish


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.10 15:24

Trump Wins: EUR/USD A 'Confusing Story' - What's Next? - SocGen (based on the article)

Daily price is located below Ichimoku cliud and below Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary ebarish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is on bearish ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1243 resistance level located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish trend to be started, and
  • 1.0850 support level located far below Ichimoku cloud in the primary bearish area of the chart.

Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku are evaluating the future trend as the bearish, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the trend as the ranging bearish in the near future.

"EUR/USD by contrast is a more confusing story. Relative real yields aren’t moving significantly in support of the dollar here, but pretty much every meeting I have been in today has seen clients express concern about the spread of populism to European voters in the months ahead, starting with the Italian referendum.. My hopes of EUR/USD testing the upper end of its current range before that vote on 4 December are taking a battering."

If D1 price breaks 1.0850 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.

If D1 price breaks 1.1243 resistance level on close bar from below to above so we may see the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition with 1.1298 nearest bullish target to re-enter.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1243 for close bar for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.0850 support level on close daily bar for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
Support
1.12431.0850
1.1298N/A

SUMMARY: bearish

TREND: ranging


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.11 09:02

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: FOMC Member Bullard Speaks and 34 pips price movement

2016-11-10 14:15 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Bullard Speaks]

  • past data is n/a
  • forecast data is n/a
  • actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[USD - FOMC Member Bullard Speaks] = Speech about the US economic outlook at the Commerce Bank conference, in St. Louis.

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From RTT News article: ECB's Coeure Says Too Early To Say If Trump Win Would Impact December Decision

  • "Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election is a major event, but it is too early to say if that would affect the policy decision in December, European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said. "It is not for the ECB to assess the political consequences," Coeure said in an interview to the newspaper Le Progrès de Lyon and other French newspapers, published Friday. "But it holds a lesson for Europe: in a world where shocks are increasing, Europe must keep control of its destiny.""
  • "Excessive volatility must be avoided. Looking ahead, we will assess the consequences of Mr Trump's election for the global economy and for the euro area."

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EUR/USD M5: 34 pips price movement by FOMC Member Bullard Speaks news event

 


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.11 13:03

Trading News Events: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (adapted from dailyfx)

  • "A rebound in the U. of Michigan Confidence survey may spark a bullish reaction in the U.S. dollar and fuel the recent selloff in EUR/USD should the data print highlight an improved outlook for growth and inflation."
  • "The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) looks poised to deliver a December rate-hike as ‘the Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen,’ and Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may continue to normalize monetary policy in the year ahead as the central bank sees a ‘moderate’ recovery going forward. However, another unexpected decline in household sentiment may dampen the appeal of the greenback and drag on interest-rate expectations as central bank officials continue to warn ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.’"


Bullish USD Trade: U. of Michigan Confidence Survey Climbs to 87.9 or Greater

  • "Need red, five-minute candle following the report to consider a short EUR/USD trade."
  • "If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit."
Bearish USD Trade: U.S. Household Sentiment Continues to Deteriorate
  • "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade."
  • "Implement same strategy as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse."


Daily price is bloke 200-day SMA to below to be reversed to the primary ebarish market condition. Developing retracement bearish pattern was formed by the price together with descending triangle pattern for the bearish trend to be continuing.

  • If the price will break 1.1129 resistance level on close daily bar so the reversal to the primary bullish market condition may be started.
  • If price will break 1.0853 support on close daily bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

EUR/USD M5: 29 pips price movement by  UoM Consumer Sentiment news event

 

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 13.11 - 20.11: daily bearish breakdown

Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.12 11:31

Daily price is on bearish breakout by 1.0850 support level to be testing to below for the bearish trend to be continuing with 1.0821 nearest target to re-enter. Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator is located below the price indicating the bearish breakout to be continuing, Trend Strength indicator and Absolute Strength indicator are estimating the trend as the bearish breakout to be continuing.

By the way, the fast non-lagging signals of Kijun-sen line/Tentan-sen line are estimating the future trend as the ranging so the most likely scenarios in this case are the following:

  • the price breaks 1.0821 support to below for the primary bearish continuation, or
  • the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.
If D1 price breaks 1.0821 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing with 1.0814 bearish target.

If D1 price breaks 1.1243 resistance level on close bar from below to above so we may see the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition with 1.1283 target.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1243 for close bar for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.0821 support level on close daily bar for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging rally
Resistance
Support
1.12431.0850
1.12831.0821

SUMMARY: bearish

TREND: breakdown


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USDCAD Technical Analysis 2016, 13.11 - 20.11: bullish breakout to be continuing with 1.3551 resistance

Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.12 12:04

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on bullish breakout which was started in the beginning of the last week with 1.3524 resistance level to be tested above for 1.3551 bullish target to re-enter for the bullish breakout to be continuing. Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator is located above the price indicating the future trend as the bullish, Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the future trend as the bullish breakout, and Trend Strength indicatorn is estimating the ranging condition to be started in the future.

By the way, Tenkan Sen line (moving average of the highest high and lowest low over the last 9 trading days. (Highest high + Lowest low) / 2 over the last 9 trading days) was crossed with Kijun Sen line (moving average of the highest high and lowest low over the last 26 trading days. (Highest high + Lowest low) / 2 over the last 26 trading days) two weeks ago for the bullish trend to be continuing with good breakout possibility for the week.

If D1 price breaks 1.3263 support level on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If D1 price breaks 1.2999 support level on close bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition.
If D1 price breaks 1.3551 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.3551 for close bar for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.2999 support level on close daily bar for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish
Resistance
Support
1.35241.3263
1.35511.2999

SUMMARY: bullish

TREND: breakout


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.14 09:49

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Forecasts: $51 Per Barrel in 2017 (adapted from the article)

Daily price is located within 100-day SMA/200-day SMA ranging area of the chart: the price is on testing 44.76 support level to below for the reversal from the ranging bullish to the primary ebarish market condition. Alternative, if the price breaks 38.2% Fibo level at 48.18 to above on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.


Weekly price is located inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging condition and above Senkou Span line (which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart) for the bullish trend so we are having ranging bullish market condition on weekly Ichimoku chart. If the price breaks 41.49 support level to below so we may get long-tern nearish reversal, alternarive - if the price breaks 53.71 resistance to above so the primary long-tern bullish trend will be resumed.


"The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released on November 8 forecasts that North Sea Brent crude oil prices will average $43 per barrel (b) in 2016 and $51/b in 2017. EIA expects that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices will average $43/b in 2016 and $50/b in 2017."

Most likely scenario for the price movement in 2017: the ranging trend within 54/41 levels.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.14 16:50

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speaks and 16 pips range price movement

2016-11-14 15:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech at the Italian Treasury, in Rome.

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From Forex Crunch article: EUR/USD finds support only at 2016 lows – why and what’s next

  • "The US dollar continues storming forward, and EUR/USD sees no mercy. The world’s No. 1 currency pair is trading at the lowest levels since early 2016. So far, it has reached 1.0728, above support at 1.0710. The pair did break below the low of 1.0825 seen in March. At that time, the ECB presented a lot of new measures but also said they were done for the time."
  • "If 1.0710 breaks, we will be in areas where the pair spent little time. 1.0630 is a stepping stone on the way down. Stronger support awaits at 1.0520, the level the pair visited on another ECB rate event: the December 2015 meeting. And the last line in the sand belongs to 1.0460, last seen in March 2015, and the lowest level in well over a decade. Some even see an open door to parity Resistance awaits at 1.0820, 1.0960 and 1.10."

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EUR/USD M5: 16 pips range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speaks news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.15 08:43

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and 28 pips range price movement

2016-11-15 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

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From Econotimes articleRBA likely to stay on hold for sometime on domestic, global uncertainty

  • "The Reserve Bank of Australia’s November Board meeting minutes were widely in line with the narrative from the Monetary Policy statement. The overall tone seems very optimistic, with economic growth projection to be around potential in the quarters ahead, noted ANZ in a research report."
  • "Significantly, the November meeting minutes imply that the Reserve Bank of Australia might be more comfortable with the inflation outlook and possibly increasingly confident that pressures of disinflation have peaked. The minutes reiterated that the risks to global inflation are quite balanced but also judged risks to domestic inflation as “broadly balanced”, underpinned by “evident that wage growth in Australia had stabilized”, said ANZ."
  • "We continue to see the RBA on hold with the cash rate steady at 1.5 percent. While the RBA’s forecasts for persistently low inflation implies an easing bias, this is tempered by a more balanced assessment of the inflation risks and ongoing financial stability concerns."

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AUD/USD M5: 28 pips range price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event