GBP/USD - "Signs of stronger U.K. inflation accompanied
by a pickup in retail spending by may curb the bearish sentiment
surrounding the sterling as BoE officials continue to drop their dovish
tone and see a greater risk of above-target price growth. Even though
BoE Governor Mark Carney argues
the central bank is willing to tolerate ‘some inflation overshoot,’ it
seems as though the marked depreciation in the British Pound is becoming
a growing concern within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as Deputy
Governor Jon Cunliffe warns the
next quarterly inflation due out on November 3 will reflect the sharp
decline in the exchange rate. As a result, the central bank may have
little choice but to stay on the sidelines throughout the remainder of
the year in an effort to combat the risk for stagflation. A series of
positive U.K. data prints may fuel a near-term recovery in the British
Pound as market participants push out bets for the next BoE rate-cut,
but the broader outlook for GBP/USD remains tilted to the downside as
the growing threat of a ‘hard Brexit’ undermines the
better-than-expected developments coming out of the real economy."
AUD/USD - "Optimal for the Australian economy would be a
quiet patch for the next couple of months so that markets can get more
acquainted with Dr. Phillip Lowe in the effort of ‘getting a feel’ for
how he may look to lead the bank in the months and years ahead. This
would also allow those recent rate cuts to begin to show in Australian
data so that markets can garner an opinion on how much any additional
cut(s) might help, or even if they’ll be needed at all."
USD/CAD - "The heavy economic data point this week will
take place on Wednesday, which will be the October 19 Bank of Canada
Policy Rate announcement and release of the Monetary Policy Report.
Traders will be on watch for how the Bank of Canada is seeing
stabilization in the energy sector, whether or not there is a continued
pickup in the non-commodity exports to emerging economies, and how they
see growth in the rest of the economy."
USD/CNH - "The PBOC’s guidance on the Yuan will continue
to be in focus. Yuan’s daily fix was weakened by the regulator for four
consecutive days until Friday after a week-long hiatus due to Chinese
holidays, or seven trading days in a row. Since the offshore Yuan was
introduced in 2010, there are only four periods that the USD/CNH touched
above 6.71: August to September 2010, January 2016, July 2016 and now,
which provide limited references for Yuan’s further moves. For the
onshore Yuan, the last time it traded above 6.71 was six years ago, with
even fewer references. Within such a context, traders will want to keep
a close eye on Yuan’s guidance from China’s Central Bank, as it may
largely impact the onshore and offshore Yuan rates."
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Heading into next week, traders will be
closely eyeing the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI)
after minutes from the latest FOMC
policy meeting cited that “survey-based measures of longer-run
inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, while
market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low.” Should
the data show a stronger-than-expected increase in the pace of price
growth, look for gold prices to remain under pressure. Aside from the
economic docket, a fresh batch of central bank rhetoric from 2016 voting
members Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer, New York Fed President William
Dudley and Fed Governor Jerome Powell may also impact prices as
expectations for a December rate-hike continue to prop-up the U.S.
dollar, to the detriment of gold."
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New York Manufacturing Index and 6 pips price movement
2016-10-17 12:30 GMT | [USD - Empire State Manufacturing Index]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Empire State Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in New York state.
From Market Watch article:
EUR/USD M5: 6 pips price movement by Empire State Manufacturing Index news event
USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's International Transactions in Securities and 27 pips range price movement
2016-10-17 12:30 GMT | [CAD - Foreign Securities Purchases]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
[CAD - Foreign Securities Purchases] = Total value of domestic stocks, bonds, and money-market assets purchased by foreigners during the reported month.
From official report:
USD/CAD M5: 27 pips range price movement by Canada's International Transactions in Securities news event
Quick Technical Overview - GOLD: price reversed to the bearish with 1,241.34 support (adapted from the article)
Daily price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition. Fow now, the price is on ranging within narrow s/r levels waiting to be reversed back to the ranging bullish condition or for the bearish trend to be resumed.
Trading News Events: U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (adapted from the article)
Bullish GBP Trade: Headline & Core CPI Pick Up in September
is located below 200-day SMA (200 SMA) and 100-day SMA (100
SMA) for the primary bearish market condition with the ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels.
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and 29 pips price movement
2016-10-18 00:30 GMT | [AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]
[AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent
meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that
influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.
AUD/USD M5: 29 pips price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event