Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 200

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.19 07:40

Weekly Outlook: 2016, November 20 - November 27 (based on the article)



The US dollar continued marching forward, accompanied by clear hints of a rate hike. US Durable Goods Orders, UK GDP and the all-important FOMC Meeting Minutes stand out in the week of Thanksgiving. These are the major events on forex calendar.

 

    1. Mario Draghi speaks: Monday, 16:00. ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the European Parliament, in Strasbourg.
    2. US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 13:30. Economists expect durable goods to rise 1.2% in September, while core goods to rise 0.2%.
    3. US Unemployment Claims: Wednesday, 13:30. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach 241,000 this time.
    4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
    5. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 19:00. These are the minutes from the November meeting, in which the Fed left rates unchanged but argued that the case for raising rates has “continued to strengthen”.
    6. German Ifo Business Climate: Thursday, 9:00. German business climate is expected to register 110.6 in November.
    7. UK GDP data: Friday, 9:30. The second estimate is expected to confirm the first one, but changes are not uncommon.

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    Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.19 08:09

    Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2016, November 20 - November 27 (based on the article)



    EUR/USD continued its deep dive and hit new lows as the dollar rally continued and euro-zone data was mixed. Another public appearance from Draghi and fresh PMIs stand out now. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.
    1. Draghi talks: Monday, 16:00. The President of the ECB may hint about the highly anticipated December meeting of the Bank.
    2. Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00.
    3. Flash PMIs: Wednesday: 8:00 for France, 8:30 for Germany and 9:00 for the euro-zone. For the whole euro-zone, manufacturing was ahead at 53.5 and services at 52.8 points, with 53.2 and 53.1 expected now.
    4. ECB Financial Stability Review: Wednesday, 9:00. Twice a year, the European Central Bank assesses the stability of the financial sector.
    5. Final German GDP: Thursday, 7:00.
    6. German Ifo Business Climate: Thursday, 9:00. A score of 110.6 is forecast.
    7. German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday, 12:00. A small rise to 9.7 is on the cards.
    8. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Thursday, 14:00. A small improvement to -1.5 is expected.

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    Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.19 09:32

    OPEC might agree to limit production cuts at the end of the month boosted sentiment (adapted from the article)

    Brent Crude Oil daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of te chart with the secondary bear market rally. The price is trying to break 48.31 resistance level to above for the bullish reversal to be started. Alternative, if the daily price breaks 44.76 and 44.18 support levels to below on close bar so the primary beaish trend will be resumed.


    • "The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is moving closer to finalizing its first deal since 2008 to limit output, with most members prepared to offer Iran flexibility on production volumes, ministers and sources said."
    • "Iran has been the main stumbling block for capping production, and while it has not yet responded to the proposal, it suggests OPEC members may be coming nearer to a consensus ahead of their meeting in Vienna on Nov. 30."
    • "A stronger dollar makes oil, which is priced in the greenback, more expensive to buyers using other currencies."
    • "But analysts said there were still obstacles for the producer group to overcome before it could reach a deal. OPEC is scheduled to meet next on Nov. 30."


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    EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 20.11 - 27.11: bearish breakdown with 1.0567 key support level

    Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.20 11:10

    Daily price is on bearish breakdown located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price broke 1.0619 support level to below for the bearish breakdown to be continuing with 1.0567 target to re-enter.

    If D1 price breaks 1.0567 support level on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.

    If D1 price breaks 61.8% Fibo resistance level at 1.1019 on close bar from below to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend willbe started.
    If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.


    • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1019 for close bar for possible buy trade
    • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.0567 support level on close daily bar for possible sell trade
    • Trading Summary: bearish
    Resistance
    Support
    1.10191.0619
    1.12991.0567

    SUMMARY: bearish

    TREND: breakdown


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    USDCAD Technical Analysis 2016, 20.11 - 27.11: ranging bullish with 1.3551 resistance to be broker for 1.3588 re-enter target

    Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.20 11:41

    Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

    • 1.3551 resistance level located far above Ichimoku cloud in the border of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
    • 1.3399 support level located in the beginning of the secondary correction to be started.

    Trend Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as a bullish, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the future trend as the ranging bullish.

    If D1 price breaks 1.3399 support level on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
    If D1 price breaks 1.2999 support level on close bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition.
    If D1 price breaks 1.3551 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed with 1.3588 nearest daily target to re-enter.
    If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


    • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.3551 for close bar for possible buy trade
    • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.3399 support level on close daily bar for possible sell trade
    • Trading Summary: bullish
    Resistance
    Support
    1.35511.3399
    1.35881.2999

    SUMMARY: bullish

    TREND: ranging


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    Press review

    Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.21 07:47

    USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance and 28 pips range price movement

    2016-11-20 23:50 GMT | [JPY - Trade Balance]

    • past data is 0.36T
    • forecast data is 0.41T
    • actual data is 0.47T according to the latest press release

    if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

    [JPY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

    ==========

    From forexlive article: Japan Trade balance for October: Y496.2bn (expected Y610bn)

    Trade balance for October Y 496.2bn
    • expected Y 610bn, prior was Y 497.6bn
    Trade balance (adjusted): Y 474.3bn
    • expected Y 403.3bn, prior was Y 349.0bn

    ==========

    USD/JPY M5: 28 pips price movement by Japan Trade Balance news event

     


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    Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.21 17:47

    EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speaks and 13 pips range price movement

    2016-11-21 16:20 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

    [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech about the European Central Bank's Annual Report before the European Parliament, in Strasbourg.

    ==========

    From official report:

    • "Beyond the relevance of the ECB’s monetary policy, an important contributing factor has been the more robust financial sector which has emerged from the financial crisis."
    • "The decision to address the mistakes of the pre-crisis era through ambitious regulatory reforms is thus paying off. It has resulted in a European financial sector that is now stronger in terms of capital, leverage, funding and risk-taking. For example, Common Equity Tier 1 ratios in the euro area have improved substantially, rising from less than 7% for significant banking groups in 2008 to more than 14% today."
    • "Supported by our monetary policy, the recovery is sustaining its momentum. We also expect headline inflation to continue rising over the coming months. At the same time, we are not seeing a consistent strengthening of underlying price dynamics. Much of the expected increase will be driven by statistical factors related to the stabilisation of oil prices."

    ==========

    EUR/USD M5: 13 pips price movement by ECB President Draghi Speaks news event

     


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    Press review

    Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.21 19:44

    Brent Crude Oil: intra-day bullish breakout (adapted from the article)

    H4 oil price is on bullish market condition with the breakout by the 49.93 resistance level to be broken for the intra-day bullish breakout to be continuing. Alternative, if the price breaks 46.73 support level to below on close bar so the bearish reversal will be started.

    • "Volatility is anticipated to be high regardless of OPEC’s outcome whether they cut the production of Oil, and set a cap on production for the first time in eight years or whether they continue to produce at well. Recent comments from the Iranian Oil Minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganesh, have increased confidence following Russian Oil Minister’s comments last week about a highly probable deal coming to pass."
    • "In addition to the encouraging comments about a, “highly probable” outcome for a production cut, the Options Market has shown high anticipation in the Oil Market. Open interest, which measures both long and short exposure in the Oil market ahead of the Vienna OPEC meeting is at its highest levels since 2007 as per the U.S. CFTC. Additionally, we’ve seen a record number of call volume, which is less of a commitment than outright longs while outright shorts in the Brent Oil have reached their highest level in more than two years.
    • "The aggressive positioning helps to show that the price-risk may favor the upside given the calls would be exercised and the aggressive short positioning would be unwound. However, a failure to fulfill the agreement in September to cut collective output from 34 million to 32.5-33 million will no doubt see the price under pressure, and some wondering if a move toward a $30-handle is underway.


    Daily price is breaking Ichimoku cloud on open bar for now for the possible bullish reversal. If the price breaks 61.8% Fibo level at 50 to above so the reversal of the daily price movement will be started, otherwise - ranging to be inside the cloud.

     

    Most likely scenario: the price will be bounced from 50.0/61.8 resistance level to below for the ranging condition to be started.


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    Press review

    Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.22 09:32

    Trading News Events: Canada Retail Sales (adapted from dailyfx)

    • "A 0.6% rebound in Canada Retail Sales may spark a bullish reaction in the loonie and lead to a near-term pullback in USD/CAD should the data print highlight an improved outlook for growth and inflation."
    • "Even though the Bank of Canada (BoC) keeps the door open to further embark on its easing-cycle, a marked pickup in household spending may encourage Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. to retain the current policy at the last 2016-meeting on December 7 as ‘Canada’s economy is still expected to grow at a rate above potential starting in the second half of 2016, supported by accommodative monetary and financial conditions and federal fiscal measures.’ Nevertheless, another disappointing sales report may push the BoC to ‘actively’ discuss additional measures in 2017 as the region is expected to return to full-capacity ‘materially later than the Bank had anticipated in July.’"


    Bullish CAD Trade: Retail Spending Rebounds 0.6% or Greater

    • "Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on USD/CAD."
    • "If market reaction favors a long loonie trade, short USD/CAD with two separate position."
    • "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
    • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit."

    Bearish CAD Trade: Canada Household Spending Disappoints

    • "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long USD/CAD trade."
    • "Implement same setup as the bullish Canadian dollar trade, just in reverse.


    Daily price is on bullish are of the chart located to be above Ichimoku cloud. The price is on secondary correction to be started on open daily bar by 1.3386 support level to be broken for the correction to be continuing.

    • If the price will break 1.3588 resistance level on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
    • If price will break 1.3386 support on close daily bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
    • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

    ------

    USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada Retail Sales news event


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    Press review

    Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.22 10:20

    Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

    H4 price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA on the bearish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within narrow support/resistance levels:

    • 1.0649 resistance level located in the beginning of the secondary bear market rally to be started, and
    • 1.0568 support level located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish trend to be resumed.


    Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for this pair to be bearish trend to be continuing:

    "The lack of follow through despite the overall bearish indications coupled with the rather strong rebound yesterday suggests that the odds for further EUR weakness have diminished. A prolonged consolidation above 1.0540 would lead to a rapid loss in downward momentum and increase the risk of a short-term low."


    • If daily price breaks 1.0953 resistance level on close bar so the bullish reversal will be started.
    • If daily price breaks 1.0568 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
    • If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.