Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 195

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.27 21:52

S&P 500 Intra-Day Technicals: H1 bearish reversal (adapted from the article)

H1 price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA levels to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition with 2,126 support level to be broken for the bearish trend to be continuing with 2,124/2,123 levels to re-enter.

  • "The most critical level to watch as resistance comes at the 2146/50 area, where several inflection points of support and resistance can be found. To a less degree in this vicinity we have a trend-line running down off the 10/10 swing high. A break above brings the 10/24 swing high at 2155 into play, and on aggressive trade higher the trend-line extending lower off the 9/7 swing high. Several inflection points spanning over a fairly lengthy period make this an important trend-line to watch. To a lesser degree of importance, running near this t-line is the upper parallel off the 10/14 swing high. In the unlikely event we trade above the before mentioned resistance levels in the very near-term we will look to 2070 as the next stopping point."
  • "On the downside, we first have support by way of a trend-line running higher off the important 10/13 daily low, then the lower parallel extending back to the 10/17 pivot. Horizontal support quickly comes into play around 2130, then 2124, and finally the important 2115 level."


The most likely scenario for H1 price movement is the following: the price will cross 2,126 level to below with 2,124/2,123 next level to be broken for the bearish trend to be continuing.


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.28 09:51

USD/CNH Ahead of US 3Q GDP (based on the article)

Daily price is on primary bullish market cndition located above 100 SMA/200 SMA: the price broke 6.7757 level to above on clos  daily bar for 6.7969 resistance level to be broken for the bullish trend to be continuing.

  • "The pair surged higher after breaking resistance around the 6.7 handle followed by the 2016 January high around 6.7584."
  • "Indeed, momentum still looks strong as we head into today’s key US 3Q GDP numbers, which could prove influential for the pair’s direction in the near term."
  • "As it were, price is now sitting in close proximity to the 6.8 handle, and a break higher seems an important milestone for further gains."
  • "If the pair reverses course, downside moves might still be interpreted as corrective as long as buyers can keep price above the 6.7 level."


The most likely scenario for the daily price movement is the following: the price breaks 6.8 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be resumed, otherwise - ranging bullish.


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.28 11:16

Trading the News: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (adapted from the article)

  • "The U.S. economy is projected to grow an annualized 2.5% in the third-quarter of 2016, and a marked pickup in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may boost the appeal of the greenback and trigger a near-term decline in EUR/USD as it fuels speculation for an imminent Fed rate-hike."
  • "It seems as though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is following a similar path to 2015 as a growing number of central bank officials endorse a December rate-hike, but the majority may continue to endorse a ‘gradual’ path in normalizing monetary policy as ‘survey-based measures of longer-run inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, while market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low.’ With that said, a marked slowdown in the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, may spark a bearish reaction in the greenback as it drags on interest-rate expectations."


Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Expands Annualized 2.5% or Greater

  • "Need a green, five-minute candle following the report to favor a long EUR/USD trade."
  • "If market reaction favors a long sterling trade, buy EUR/USD with two separate position."
Bearish GBP Trade: 3Q Growth Report Falls Short of Market Expectations
  • "Need a red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade."
  • "Implement same strategy as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse."


Daily price is located below 100-day SMA (100 SMA) and 200-day SMA (200 SMA) for the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels: the price is testing 1.0859 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing with 1.0814 nearest daily target to re-enter. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price with 1.0859 support level to be crossed for the bearish trend to be resumed.

  • If D1 price breaks 1.0859 support to below on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing with 1.0814 nearest daily bearish target.
  • If price breaks 1.1038 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  • If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.28 14:59

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD : U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

2016-10-28 12:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report:


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EUR/USD M5: 24 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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USD/CAD M5: 39 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events



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Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.28 16:13

Hang Seng Index: End Of Week Technicals - bearish breakdown reversal

This trading week is ended with some results concerning Hang Seng Index: the price broke Ichimoku cloud to below to be reversed from the ranging bearish market condition to the primary bullish trend. The price is breaking 22,927 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing with 22,768 daily bearish target to re-enter.

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D1 price is located below Ichimoku cloud for on the bearish area of the chart to be located within the following key s/r levels:

  • 23,657 resistance level located on in the beginning of the bullish trend to be started, and
  • 22,768 support level located below Ichimoku cloud for the primary bearish trend to be resumed.


H4 price is on berish breakdown to be below Ichimoku cloud: the price is breaking 22,927 support level to below for the bearish breakdown to be continuing:

  • Chinkou Span line is below the price for the bearish breakdown by the direction.
  • Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bearish trend to be continuing.
  • The nearest resistance level for the bullish reversal is 23,652.
  • The nearest support level for the bearish trend to be resumed is 22,927.


If H4 price breaks 23,657 resistance level so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If H4 price breaks 22,927 support so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

Resistance
 Support
23,46422,927
23,65722,768

SUMMARY: bearish

TREND: breakdown

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 30.10 - 06.11: bearish with ranging rally

Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.30 06:43

Daily price is on located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price was started with the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition and with 1.1038 resistance level to be crossed to above for the bear market rally to be continuing.

By the way, the descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the bearish trend to be resumed, Trend Strength indicator is estimating the trend as the bearish, but Absolute Strength indicator together with Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku are evaluating the future trend as the bearish with ranging rally.

If D1 price breaks 1.0859 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed with 1.0814 bearish target.

If D1 price breaks 1.1038 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be continuing.
If D1 price breaks 1.1278 resistance level on close bar from below to above so we may see the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1038 for close bar for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.0859 support level on close daily bar for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging rally
Resistance
Support
1.10381.0859
1.12781.0814

SUMMARY: bearish

TREND: bear market rally


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USDCAD Technical Analysis 2016, 30.10 - 06.11: daily bullish with 1.3406 resistance

Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.30 10:24

Daily price is on located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is testing 1.3406 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.

Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the bullish trend to be continuing, Trend Strength indicator is estimating the trend as a primary bullish in the future, and Absolute Strength indicator together with Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku are evaluating the future trend as ranging bullish.

If D1 price breaks 1.3229 support level on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If D1 price breaks 1.2999 support level on close bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition.
If D1 price breaks 1.3406 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.3406 for close bar for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.3229 support level on close daily bar for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging rally
Resistance
Support
1.34061.3229
N/A1.2999

SUMMARY: bullish

TREND: daily bullish trend


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.01 07:19

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate and 43 pips range price movement

2016-11-01 03:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

==========

From official report:


==========

AUD/USD M5: 43 pips range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event

 


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.01 07:36

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Manufacturing PMI and 53 pips range price movement

2016-11-01 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report:


==========

USD/CNH M5: 53 pips range price movement by Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event

 


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.01 13:39

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Gross Domestic Product and 25 pips range price movement

2016-11-01 12:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report:

  • "Real gross domestic product rose 0.2% in August, following a 0.4% increase in July. The output of goods-producing industries rose while service-producing industries were essentially unchanged."
  • "The output of goods-producing industries grew 0.7% in August, with the main contribution coming from mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction and utilities. Manufacturing and construction were also up, while the agriculture and forestry sector was down."

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USD/CAD M5: 25 pips range price movement by Canada's Gross Domestic Product news event