Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 188

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q3'16 - levels for Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.05 14:36

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Pivot Points Analysis - bullish weekly reversal

W1 price is on bear market rally to the bullish reversal: the price is breaking Central Yearly Pivot at 23,408.

  • The price is breaking 23,408 Central Pivot level to above on open weekly bar for the bullish reversal.
  • Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be broken to above together with 23,621 resistance for the bullish trend to be started.


InstrumentS1 Pivot
Yearly PP
R1 Pivot
HSI 18,192 23,408 26,564

Trend:

  • D1 - bear market rally
  • W1 - bullish reversal
  • MN1 - bullish reversal

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.06 16:40

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CNH: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

2016-09-06 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

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"The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI® registered 51.4 percent in August, 4.1 percentage points lower than the July reading of 55.5 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased substantially to 51.8 percent, 7.5 percentage points lower than the July reading of 59.3 percent, reflecting growth for the 85th consecutive month, at a notably slower rate in August. The New Orders Index registered 51.4 percent, 8.9 percentage points lower than the reading of 60.3 percent in July. The Employment Index decreased 0.7 percentage point in August to 50.7 percent from the July reading of 51.4 percent. The Prices Index decreased 0.1 percentage point from the July reading of 51.9 percent to 51.8 percent, indicating prices increased in August for the fifth consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 11 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in August."

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EUR/USD M5: 85 pips price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news event


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AUD/USD M5: 52 pips price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news event


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USD/CNH M5: 122 pips price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.07 15:15

S&P 500 Unshortable ? (based on the article)

S&P 500 increased by 0.45% for the month, 0.08% for a week, and it was decreased by 0.06% for the day. H4 intra-day price broke 100-day SMA/200-day SMA levels for the bullish market condition. The price is on testing with 2,185.75 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing. Alternative, if the price breaks 2,172.75 support ot below so the bearish trend will be resumed.


  • "The S&P badly needs a correction to reset sentiment. Our portfolio wants more volatility and sentiment extremes."
  • "Oil has now rallied hard out of its probable half-cycle low. Energy stocks are holding up exceptionally well."
  • "Gold on Friday printed lower lows than in July, which may be a sign that a decline is around the corner. However gold should rally more than oil if the S&P corrects."

S&P 500 daily is on primary bullish market condition located above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area for the ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels:

  • 2,185.75 resistance with 2,191.25 target to re-enter, and
  • 2,154.50 support level located in the beginning of the secondary correction to be started.


The most likely scenarioo for the movement for September is the following: daily  price will be on ranging within 2,191/2,154.


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.08 08:47

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Trade Balance and 37 pips price movement

2016-09-08 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -3.25B
  • forecast data is -2.70B
  • actual data is -2.41B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

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AUD/USD M5: 37 pips price movement by Australian Trade Balance news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.08 14:02

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Minimum Bid Rate and 30 pips range price movement

2016-09-08 11:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.

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At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council continues to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.

Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council confirms that the monthly asset purchases of €80 billion are intended to run until the end of March 2017, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until it sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim.

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EUR/USD M5: 30 pips range price movement by ECB Minimum Bid Rate news event



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Forecast for Q3'16 - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.09 08:18

GOLD: End Of Week Technicals - ranging market condition waiting for the direction of the trend

This trading week ended with some interesting results for this pair (XAU/USD) - the intra-day price was started with the bullish breakout and ending with the ranging bullish, and daily price was on breakout with the bullish reversal but ended this week with the ranging market condition to be inside Ichimoku cloud waiting for the direction of the trend.

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XAU/USD

D1 price is located inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging market condition within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1352.53 resistance located near and above Senkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator in the beginning of the bullish trend to be started, and
  • 1302.41 support level located near and below Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed.

Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the daily bullish trend in the near future.


H4 price is on ranging condition within the primary bullish trend: the price is located above Ichimoku cloud for the ranging within narrow s/r levels.

If H4 price breaks 1352.53 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If H4 price breaks 1335.37 support level on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.

If not so the price will be on the ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1335.37 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1352.53 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
 Support
1349.301335.37
1352.531315.86
N/A
1302.41

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging

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USDCAD Technical Analysis 2016, 11.09 - 18.09: possible bullish reversal on ranging way

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.10 11:03

Daily price is on secondary rally within the primary bullish market condition: price broke one of Senkou Span line B of Ichimoku indicator to above for the ranging rally to be located inside Ichimoku cloud.

  • The price is testing Senkou Span A line of Ichimoku indicator to above together with 1.3113 resistance level to be reversed to the bullish market condition.
  • Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator is breaking the price to above for the good possible breakout.
  • Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bullish reversal on ranging way in the near future.
If D1 price breaks 1.2822 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If D1 price breaks 1.3113 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started with 1.3200 level as a nearest daily target to re-enter.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.3113 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.2822 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bear market rally
Resistance
Support
1.31131.2822
1.32001.2763

SUMMARY : bear market rally

TREND : bearish

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AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 11.09 - 18.09: bullish ranging breakdown

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.10 14:39

Daily price is on breakdown which was started on Friday on close daily bar: the price is testing upper border of Ichimoku cloud to below for the bullish breakdown to be continuing with the secondary ranging way and with 0.7485 bearish reversal target. Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator is estimating the breakdown to be continuing, and Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as a ranging correction within the primary bullish market condition.

If D1 price breaks 0.7485 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price breaks 0.7731 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be resumed with 0.7755 nearest bullish target to re-enter.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 0.7731 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 0.7485 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging correction
Resistance
Support
0.77310.7485
0.7755N/A

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging correction

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 11.09 - 18.09: ranging above Ichimoku cloud

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.11 09:41

Daily price is on ranging market condition located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1326 resistance level located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area, and
  • 1.1122 support level located inside Ichimoku cloud to be near and above Senkou Span line in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started.

Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bullish trend to be resumed, and Trend Strength indicator is evaluating the future possible trend as a secondary ranging.

If D1 price breaks 1.1122 support level on close bar so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started with 1.1045 target.
If D1 price breaks 1.1326 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be resumed with 1.1366 nearest bullish target to re-enter.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1326 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.1122 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
Support
1.13261.1122
1.13661.1045

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.13 12:57

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie Rejected at 0.77 Figure (based on the article)

H4 price is on bearish condition located below 100 SMA/200 SMA: price was bounced from 0.7731 resistance level to below for the breakdown with the bearish reversal. Fow now, the price is on bearish ranging within narrow support/resistance levels: 0.7567 resistance and 0.7493 support.

  • "The Australian Dollar faltered at familiar resistance near 0.77 against its US counterpart having rebounded as expected after forming a Morning Star candlestick pattern. The bounce saw a retest of broken trend line support-turned-resistance, with subsequent losses potentially marking longer-term down trend resumption."
  • "Prices are too close to near-term support to justify entering short from a risk/reward perspective. Opting for the sidelines seems prudent for now, waiting for the pair to offer a better-defined opportunity to sell in line with the emerging bearish bias."

If H4 price breaks 0.7567 resistance level to above on close bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
If H4 price breaks 0.7493 support level to below so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 0.7567 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 0.7493 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
Support
0.75670.7493
0.7731N/A

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging