Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 192

Sergey Golubev
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USDCAD Technical Analysis 2016, 09.10 - 30.10: daily bullish; weekly breakout

Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.09 07:28

Weekly price is breaking 1.3280 resistance level to above for the reversal of the price movement from the bearish to the ranging bullish market condition to be located inside Ichimoku cloud. Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above, Absolute Strength indicator and Trend Strength indicator are estimating the bullish condition in the near future, and Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku is indicating the good breakout of the price movement with the possible bullish reversal.

If W1 price breaks 1.2763 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If W1 price breaks 1.3280 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the reversal of the price movement to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


Resistance
Support
1.32801.2763
N/A1.2460

SUMMARY : rally

TREND : bullish reversal

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.11 06:37

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Home Loans and 50 pips price movement

2016-10-11 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Home Loans]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Home Loans] = Change in the number of new loans granted for owner-occupied homes.

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From RTT News article:

  • "The total number of home loans issued in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 3.0 percent on month in August, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday - coming in at 53,109."
  • "That missed forecasts for a fall of 1.5 percent following the 4.5 percent decline in July."
  • "Investment lending added 0.1 percent to A$11.915 billion following the 0.5 percent gain in the previous month."

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AUD/USD M5: 50 pips range price movement by Australia Home Loans news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.11 08:03

So why all this talk about the CNY weakness? (adapted from the article)

"In short, the Yuan weakness gives China a comparative and possibly absolute manufacturing and export advantage that could encourage the aggressive fiscal policy stimulus that would naturally align with the “yield curve control’ announced on September 21."

"On Monday, the Chinese Renminbi (off-short Yuan) fell by its largest amount in four months after China opened following National Day Golden Week holiday. The drop amounted to 0.46% for the Yuan but continues to validate the trend of a stronger USD and weaker CNH. The weakening took the Yuan to its lowest level (6.7501) since September 2010 according to Bloomberg data."


"The weakening aligns with China FX reserves shows a rising amount of capital is leaving. The increase in capital flows could bring volatility to global markets as the world awaits the next move by the Federal Reserve that could bring down the Yuan and is encouraging wealthy citizens of China to move their money overseas in yuan amid Yuan depreciation expectations.
So why all this talk about the CNY weakness? In short, the Yuan weakness gives China a comparative and possibly absolute manufacturing and export advantage that could encourage the aggressive fiscal policy stimulus that would naturally align with the “yield curve control’ announced on September 21.
"


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.11 08:26

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: The Race To Debase Resumes In Asia (based on the article)


  • "Some traders have looked at the move in USD/JPY post-Brexit as a triangle. That’s a valid view, but a break above 104.32 (September Opening Range High) that would invalidate such a pattern and could add to the building evidence of a pending bullish breakout. A break above 104.32 would then turn Bullish focus to the post-Brexit high of 107.48."
  • "Opening Range reversals are commonplace in strong trends and should be indicative of trend continuation. In the case of October, we’d have an opening range reversal if the price of USD/JPY broke below 101.17 (Monday’s low) in the second week of October and continued lower. However, a break above the high of 104.15 on a closing basis would further embolden USD/JPY bulls. Given the significant macro-event risk of the US Presidential Election, the opening range low of 101.17 should remain on watch as an invalidation of the recent excitement."
  • "A continuation through the resistance levels mentioned above could see traders start to push the market higher in fear of missing out on the next USD/JPY long trade."

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.11 14:36

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: NFIB Small Business Index

2016-10-11 10:00 GMT | [USD - NFIB Small Business Index]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - NFIB Small Business Index] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed small businesses.

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From 247 wallst article: Small Business Optimism Slips Again in September

"Clearly the stock market loves the Fed, but bloated stock values are not real productive wealth which is created by real investment in plant, equipment, research and infrastructure, weak in this recovery. Even housing with low mortgage rates has not performed up to expectation based on demographics. It has not occurred to the Fed that what meager growth we have had has occurred in spite of government policy, not because of it. The private sector continues to perform poorly in light of the barriers that governments at all levels throw up in its path."

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EUR/USD M5: 37 pips price movement by NFIB Small Business Index news events


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USD/CAD M5: 29 pips price movement by NFIB Small Business Index news events



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.12 07:28

Fed Dudley Speaks, Fed George Speaks , Sep FOMC Minutes - Barclays (based on the article)

2016-10-12 12:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks]

  • past data is n/a
  • forecast data is n/a
  • actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks] = Speech at the Fireside Chat with the Business Council of New York, in Albany.

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New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: "Dudley speaks on the economy. Based on his recent speeches, we think he is now of the view that, from a risk-management perspective, accommodation should be removed cautiously given the lack of scope to lower rates in the event of an economic downturn."

==========




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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.12 07:41

Fed Dudley Speaks, Fed George Speaks , Sep FOMC Minutes - Barclays (based on the article)

2016-10-12 13:40 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member George Speaks]

[USD - FOMC Member George Speaks] = Speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Annual Payments Symposium.

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Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC voter) speaks: "George speaks on the economic outlook. She has dissented several times this year. We expect her to maintain her call for a rate hike."

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.12 07:54

Fed Dudley Speaks, Fed George Speaks , Sep FOMC Minutes - Barclays (based on the article)

2016-10-12 18:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes]

  • past data is n/a
  • forecast data is n/a
  • actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.

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FOMC minutes: "Given the three dissents in favor of a rate hike at the FOMC’s September meeting, we expect the minutes to reveal widening divisions within the committee over the appropriate stance of policy. On one side are those who believe a rate hike in September would have been warranted given that the economy is operating near mandate-consistent levels and mediumterm risks are rising. These concerns were expressed by regional Fed presidents Rosengren, Mester, and George in remarks leading up to, and following, the meeting. On the other side are those FOMC members, primarily within the Board, who point to a slower removal of labor market slack, via trends in participation and other variables, and a lack of evidence that inflation or financial instability are rising, as supporting a further delay in policy normalization."

==========



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.14 11:11

EUR/USD Rebounds From Weekly Lows (based on the article)


Daily price was on the breakdown with the bearish reversal: the price was bounced from one week low at 1.0985 to above for the ranging bearish condition to be started:

"The EUR/USD is beginning to pair losses after closing lower for 3 consecutive sessions and declining as much as 219 pips for the week. The current daily low for the EUR/SUD resides at 1.0985, but technical traders will continue to monitor the psychological 1.1000 level going into tomorrow’s University of Michigan’s Confidence figures and Janet Yellen’s speech at the Boston Fed conference. Both of these events are marked as high importance events, with both having the ability to shift the direction of the EUR/USD."


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Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for USD/CNH

Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.14 11:58

USD/CNH: End Of Week Technicals - Bullish Continuation Or Correction To Be Started

This trading week is ended with some results concerning USD/CNH: the price was started with the bullish breakout last Friday and it was stopped by 6.7425 resistance level. For now, the price is still on testing with this 6.7425 resistance for the bullish trend to be continuing.

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D1 price is located to be above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish market condition with the ranging within the following s/r levels:

  • 6.7425 resistance level located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 6,7179 support level located in the beginning fo the secondary correction to be started.


H4 price is on bullish trend with 6.7425 resistance level to be broken for the primary bullish condition to be continuing:

  • Chinkou Span line is located above the price for the ranging bullish trend by the direction.
  • Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be started.
  • Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be broken to below for the correction to be started.
  • The nearest resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed is 6.7425.
  • Nearest support level for the secondary correction to be started is 6,7179.
  • The nearest support level for the bearish reversal is 6,7051.


If H4 price breaks 6.7425 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If H4 price breaks 6,7179 support so the local downtrend as the secondary ranging correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If H4 price breaks 6,7051 support so we may see the bearish reversal to be started for this intra-day price movement.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

Resistance
 Support
6.74256,7179
N/A6,7051

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging