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USDCAD Technical Analysis 2016, 09.10 - 30.10: daily bullish; weekly breakout
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.09 07:28
is breaking 1.3280 resistance level to above for the reversal of the price movement from the bearish to the ranging bullish market condition to be located inside Ichimoku cloud. Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above, Absolute
Strength indicator and Trend Strength indicator are estimating the bullish condition in the near future, and Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku is indicating the good breakout of the price movement with the possible bullish reversal.
If W1 price breaks 1.2763
support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.If W1 price breaks 1.3280
resistance level on close bar from below to above so the reversal of the price movement to the primary bullish market condition will be started.If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.
SUMMARY : rally
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.11 06:37
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Home Loans and 50 pips price movement
2016-10-11 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Home Loans]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - Home Loans] = Change in the number of new loans granted for owner-occupied homes.
From RTT News article:
AUD/USD M5: 50 pips range price movement by Australia Home Loans news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.11 08:03
So why all this talk about the CNY weakness? (adapted from the article)
"In short, the Yuan weakness gives China a comparative and possibly absolute manufacturing and export advantage
that could encourage the aggressive fiscal policy stimulus that would
naturally align with the “yield curve control’ announced on September
"On Monday, the Chinese Renminbi (off-short Yuan) fell by its largest
amount in four months after China opened following National Day Golden
Week holiday. The drop amounted to 0.46% for the Yuan but continues to
validate the trend of a stronger USD and weaker CNH. The weakening took
the Yuan to its lowest level (6.7501) since September 2010 according to
"The weakening aligns with China FX reserves shows a rising amount of
capital is leaving. The increase in capital flows could bring volatility
to global markets as the world awaits the next move by the Federal
Reserve that could bring down the Yuan and is encouraging wealthy
citizens of China to move their money overseas in yuan amid Yuan
So why all this talk about the CNY weakness? In short, the Yuan weakness
gives China a comparative and possibly absolute manufacturing and
export advantage that could encourage the aggressive fiscal policy
stimulus that would naturally align with the “yield curve control’
announced on September 21."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.11 08:26
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: The Race To Debase Resumes In Asia (based on the article)
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.11 14:36
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: NFIB Small Business Index2016-10-11 10:00 GMT | [USD - NFIB Small Business Index]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - NFIB Small Business Index] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed small businesses.
From 247 wallst article: Small Business Optimism Slips Again in September
"Clearly the stock market loves the Fed, but bloated stock values are not
real productive wealth which is created by real investment in plant,
equipment, research and infrastructure, weak in this recovery. Even
housing with low mortgage rates has not performed up to expectation
based on demographics. It has not occurred to the Fed that what meager
growth we have had has occurred in spite of government policy, not
because of it. The private sector continues to perform poorly in light
of the barriers that governments at all levels throw up in its path."
EUR/USD M5: 37 pips price movement by NFIB Small Business Index news events
USD/CAD M5: 29 pips price movement by NFIB Small Business Index news events
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.12 07:28
Fed Dudley Speaks, Fed George Speaks , Sep FOMC Minutes - Barclays (based on the article)
2016-10-12 12:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks]
[USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks] = Speech at the Fireside Chat with the Business Council of New York, in Albany.
New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: "Dudley
speaks on the economy. Based on his recent speeches, we think he is now
of the view that, from a risk-management perspective, accommodation
should be removed cautiously given the lack of scope to lower rates in
the event of an economic downturn."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.12 07:41
2016-10-12 13:40 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member George Speaks]
[USD - FOMC Member George Speaks] = Speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Annual Payments Symposium.
Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC voter) speaks: "George
speaks on the economic outlook. She has dissented several times this
year. We expect her to maintain her call for a rate hike."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.12 07:54
2016-10-12 18:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes]
[USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing
in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that
influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.
FOMC minutes: "Given the three dissents in favor of a rate hike at the FOMC’s September meeting, we expect the minutes to reveal widening divisions within the committee over the appropriate stance of policy. On one side are
those who believe a rate hike in September would have been warranted
given that the economy is operating near mandate-consistent levels and
mediumterm risks are rising. These concerns were expressed by regional
Fed presidents Rosengren, Mester, and George in remarks leading up to,
and following, the meeting. On the other side are
those FOMC members, primarily within the Board, who point to a slower
removal of labor market slack, via trends in participation and other
variables, and a lack of evidence that inflation or financial
instability are rising, as supporting a further delay in policy
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.14 11:11
EUR/USD Rebounds From Weekly Lows (based on the article)
Daily price was on the breakdown with the bearish reversal: the price was bounced from one week low at 1.0985 to above for the ranging bearish condition to be started:
"The EUR/USD is beginning to pair losses after closing lower for 3
consecutive sessions and declining as much as 219 pips for the week. The
current daily low for the EUR/SUD resides at 1.0985, but technical
traders will continue to monitor the psychological 1.1000 level going
into tomorrow’s University of Michigan’s Confidence figures and Janet
Yellen’s speech at the Boston Fed conference. Both of these events are
marked as high importance events, with both having the ability to shift
the direction of the EUR/USD."
Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for USD/CNH
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.14 11:58
USD/CNH: End Of Week Technicals - Bullish Continuation Or Correction To Be Started
trading week is ended with some results concerning USD/CNH: the price was started with the bullish breakout last Friday and it was stopped by 6.7425 resistance level. For now, the price is still on testing with this 6.7425 resistance for the bullish trend to be continuing.---------
is located to be above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish market
condition with the ranging within the following s/r levels:
is on bullish trend with 6.7425 resistance level to be broken for the primary bullish condition to be continuing:
If H4 price breaks 6.7425 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.If H4 price breaks 6,7179 support so the local downtrend as the secondary ranging correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.If H4 price breaks 6,7051 support so we may see the bearish reversal to be started for this intra-day price movement.If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
SUMMARY : bullish