Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 196

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.01 16:17

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY : Manufacturing ISM Report On Business

2016-11-01 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report:

image]

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EUR/USD M5: 23 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events


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USD/CAD M5: 19 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events


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USD/JPY M5: 33 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.02 07:38

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Building Approvals and 36 pips range price movement

2016-11-02 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Building Approvals]

  • past data is -1.8%
  • forecast data is -2.8%
  • actual data is -8.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Building Approvals] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued.

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From official report:


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AUD/USD M5: 36 pips price movement by Australia Building Approvals news event

 


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.02 13:34

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, and GBP/USD : ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

2016-11-02 12:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.

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From official report:


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EUR/USD M5: 13 pips range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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GBP/USD M5: 32 pips range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for Brent Crude Oil

Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.02 15:57

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bearish breakdown; daily correction

2016-11-02 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 14.4 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: bearish breakdown. The price was bounced from 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal levels to the primary bearish area of the chart. Price is testing 46.67 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.

If the price breaks 47.86 resistance level so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the primary ebarish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If the price breaks 46.67 support so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.



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Crude Oil Daily: correction. The price broke 100 SMA to below for the secondary ranging market condition. Price is still above 200 SMA for the primary bullish, and if the price breaks 45.07 support level to below (which is 200-day SMA value for now) so the reversal from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.


If the price breaks 50.19 resistance on close daily bar to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 45.07 support level to below on close daily bar so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels waiting for direction.


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.02 19:35

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and NZD/USD : Federal Funds Rate and Federal Open Market Committee Statement

2016-11-02 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From official report:

  • "Inflation has increased somewhat since earlier this year but is still below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months."
  • "Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen but decided, for the time being, to wait for some further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation."

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EUR/USD M5: 29 pips range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events


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USD/CAD M5: 19 pips range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events


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NZD/USD M5: 28 pips range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

 


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.03 07:01

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Trade Balance and 34 pips range price movement

2016-11-03 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -1.89B
  • forecast data is -1.71B
  • actual data is -1.23B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

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From official report:

  • "In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,784m in September 2016, a decrease of $127m (7%) on the deficit in August 2016."
  • "In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,227m in September 2016, a decrease of $667m (35%) on the deficit in August 2016."

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AUD/USD M5: 34 pips range price movement by Australia Trade Balance news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.03 14:37

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of England Official Rate and 72 pips range price movement

2016-11-03 01:45 GMT | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight.

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From official report:

  • "The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment.  At its meeting ending on 2 November 2016 the Committee voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.25%.  The Committee voted unanimously to continue with the programme of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases totalling up to £10 billion, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves.  The Committee also voted unanimously to continue with the programme of £60 billion of UK government bond purchases to take the total stock of these purchases to £435 billion, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves."

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GBP/USD M5: 72 pips range price movement by Bank of England Official Rate news event

 


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.04 07:03

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Retail Sales and 34 pips range price movement

2016-11-04 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From official report:

  • "The trend estimate rose 0.2% in September 2016. This follows a rise of 0.3% in August 2016 and a rise of 0.2% in July 2016."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.6% in September 2016. This follows a rise of 0.5% in August 2016 and a relatively unchanged estimate (0.0%) in July 2016."

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AUD/USD M5: 34 pips range price movement by Australia Retail Sales news event

 


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Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.04 07:29

Hang Seng Index: End Of Week Technicals - breakdown with 22,584 support

This trading week is ended with some results concerning Hang Seng Index: the daily bearish breakdown is going to be continuing for the week with 22,584 support level to be broken for the bearish breakdown to be resumed.

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D1 price is located below Ichimoku cloud for on the bearish area of the chart to be located within the following key s/r levels:

  • 23,409 resistance level located on in the beginning of the bullish trend to be started, and
  • 22,584 support level located below Ichimoku cloud for the primary bearish trend to be resumed.


H4 price is on bearish breakdown to be below Ichimoku cloud: the price is breaking 22,584 support level to below for the bearish breakdown to be continuing:

  • Chinkou Span line is below the price for the bearish breakdown by the direction.
  • Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be started within 22,584/22,723 narrow levels.
  • The nearest resistance level for the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish is 23,051.
  • The nearest resistance level for the bullish reversal is 23,507.
  • The nearest support level for the bearish trend to be resumed is 22,584.


If H4 price breaks 23,507 resistance level so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If H4 price breaks 22,584 support so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

Resistance
 Support
23,05122,584
23,507N/A

SUMMARY: bearish

TREND: breakdown

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.04 11:46

Trading News Events: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (adapted from dailyfx)

  • "A 175K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) accompanied by a downtick in the jobless-rate may heighten the appeal of the greenback and spark a near-term pullback in EUR/USD should the report fuel speculation for an imminent Fed rate-hike."
  • "Despite the 8 to 2 split within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Chair Janet Yellen and Co. appear to be following a similar path to 2015 as officials warn ‘that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen,’ and the dollar may outperform its major counterparts over the remainder of the year as the central bank takes a more collective approach in preparing U.S. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs. However, a further reduction in the Fed’s long-run interest rate forecast may curtail the bullish outlook for the greenback as the committee argues ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months,’ and the permanent-voting members may continue to endorse a ‘gradual’ path in normalizing monetary policy as the central bank remains ‘data-dependent.’"


Bullish USD Trade: Employment Climbs 175K or Greater, Jobless Rate Narrows to 4.9%

  • "Need red, five-minute candle following the print to consider a short EUR/USD position."
  • "If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit."
Bearish USD Trade: U.S. NFP Report Falls Short of Market Forecast
  • "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade."
  • "Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction."


Daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price is on local uptrend as the bear market rally to be started on Monday for 1.1125 resistance level to be testing for the secondary rally to be continuing. Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above, Trend Strength indicator and Absolute Strength indicator are estimating the trend as the rally with the possible daily bullish reversal.

  • If the price will break 1.1125 resistance level on close daily bar so the bear market rally will be continuing with 1.1216 re-enter target as a Senkou Span line value for the bullish reversal.
  • If price will break 1.0892 support on close daily bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed with 1.0850 nearest bearish daily target.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.