Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 189

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.14 11:04

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Jobless Claims and 27 pips range price movement

2016-09-14 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Claimant Count Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Claimant Count Change] = Change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.

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UK Claimant Count (people), seasonally adjusted
August 2011 to August 2016



For August 2016 there were 771,000 people claiming unemployment related benefits. This was:

  • 2,400 more than for July 2016
  • 21,300 fewer than for a year earlier

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GBP/USD M5: 27 pips range price movement by U.K. Jobless Claims news event




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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 11.09 - 18.09: ranging above Ichimoku cloud

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.14 19:11

EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ascending triangle to be broken for the bullish trend to be continuing

H4 price is located above SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) in the bullish area of the chart: the price was bounced from 1.1210 support level to above for the bullish trend to be resumed. Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the bullish trend to be continuing with 1.1273 resistance level.

  • If H4 price breaks 1.1273 resistance level to above on close bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If the price breaks 1.1210 support so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.12731.1210
1.13261.1139


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.1210 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1273 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish

SUMMARY : bullish


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Forecast for Q3'16 - levels for USD/JPY

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.16 10:47

USD/JPY: End Of Week Technicals - Ranging Bearish Near Bullish Reversal

This trading week ended with some interesting daily/intra-day results and setups for USD/JPY so, let's describe some of the interesting moments for this pair.

D1 price is on primary bearish market condition: the price is on ranging within 103.80 bullish reversal resistance level and 101.19 bearish continuation level. Symmetric triangle pattern was fomred by the price to be crossed for the direction of the trend, and Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the bearish ranging to be continuing in the near future.


H4 price is on ranging near Ichimoku cloud: price broke this cloud to below once again for the possible bearish reversal:

  • Chinkou Span line crossed the price from above to below for good possible breakdown in the near future.
  • Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.
  • Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as the ranging bearish in the near future.
If H4 price breaks 101.19 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If H4 price breaks 102.74 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 102.74 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 101.19 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bearish
Resistance
 Support
102.74
101.41
103.35101.19
104.19N/A

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging

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USDCAD Technical Analysis 2016, 18.09 - 25.09: daily breakout with triangle pattern to be tested to above for the breakout to be continuing

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.18 07:09

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart.

  • The price is on bullish breakout with ascending triangle pattern to be formed by the price to be crossed to above together with 1.3235 res. for the breakout to be continuing.
  • Chinkou Span line crossed the price to above for the breakout.
  • Absolute Strength indicator and Trend Strength indicator are evaluating the future trend as the primary bullish.
  • Nearest resistance levels are 1.3235 and 1.3253.
  • Nearest support levels are 1.2909 and 1.2763.

If D1 price breaks 1.2909 support level on close bar so the reversal of the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started with 1.2763 nearest daily bearish target to re-enter.
If D1 price breaks 1.3235 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be continuing with 1.3253 level as a target.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.3235 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.2909 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bear market rally
Resistance
Support
1.32351.2909
1.32531.2763

SUMMARY : breakout

TREND : bullish

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.20 10:23

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is near and below 100 SMA/200 SMA for 1.1197 resistance level to be tested for the bullish reversal. The price is located within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1197 resistance level located near 100 SMA/200 SMA in the beginning of the bullish trend to be started, and
  • 1.1150 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed.
The symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the p[rice to be broken to the direction of the trend.



Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for EUR/USD to be on bearish condition with the strong support level to be around 1.1100 for example:

"We turned bearish EUR yesterday but indicated that any decline is expected to encounter solid support at 1.1100. In other words, the downside potential appears to be limited. That said, the outlook for EUR is deemed as bearish until there is a break above 1.1240."


  • If daily price breaks 1.1207 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If daily price breaks 1.1109 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.20 15:14

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD: U.S. Residential Building Permits

2016-09-20 12:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.

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From Business Insider article:

U.S. housing starts fell more than expected in August as building activity declined broadly after two straight months of solid increases, but a rebound in permits for single-family dwellings suggested demand for housing remained intact.

Groundbreaking decreased 5.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.14 million units, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. July's starts were unrevised at a 1.21 million-unit pace.

Permits for future construction slipped 0.4 percent to a 1.14 million-unit rate last month as approvals for the volatile multi-family homes segment tumbled 7.2 percent to a 402,000 unit-rate. Permits for single-family homes, the largest segment of the market, surged 3.7 percent to a 737,000-unit pace.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts falling to a 1.19 million-unit pace last month and building permits rising to a 1.17 million-unit rate.

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EUR/USD M5: 11 pips range price movement by U.S. Building Permits news events



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USD/CAD M5: 20 pips price movement by U.S. Building Permits news events


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AUD/USD M5: 13 pips price movement by U.S. Building Permits news events


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Forecast for Q3'16 - levels for Brent Crude Oil

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.21 16:43

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day ranging bullish, daily ranging for direction

2016-09-21 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 6.2 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: ranging on the bullish area. The price is on ranging near 100 SMA and above 200 SMA area for the bullish trend to be resumed or for the bearish reversal to be started.

If the price breaks 47.08 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 46.48 support so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.



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Crude Oil Daily: ranging for direction. The price is located within 100 SMA/200 SMA ranging area ranging for the direction of the trend to be started.


If the price breaks 48.13 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 45.07 support level on close daily bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 41.49 support level on close daily bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.21 20:48

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD: FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate

2016-09-21 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From ft article: Fed fund futures see 60% chance of 2016 rate hike
"The Federal Reserve has voted to punt an interest rate hike into the long grass again, but investors still reckon that there is a decent chance of an increase by the end of the year, according to interest rate futures."

"Fed fund futures, contracts that investors use to bet on interest rate movements, imply that there is a 60 per cent chance of a hike at the December meeting, up slightly from 59 per cent ahead of today’s decision, reports Robin Wigglesworth in New York."


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EUR/USD M5: 61 pips range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events


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AUD/USD M5: 67 pips range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events


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USD/CAD M5: 93 pips range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.23 08:46

Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA levels in the bearish area of the chart and within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1.3120 resistance level located near 200 SMA in the beginning of the bullish reversal to be started, and
  • 1.3027 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart.
The symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be broken for the bullish reversal or for the bearish trend to be resumed.



Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for this pair to be on bearish market condition with the seconday ranging way:

"We highlighted the rapidly waning momentum yesterday and advocated shorts to book some profit at 1.3035. Subsequently, GBP rallied strongly and edged 1 pip above our stop-loss at 1.3120 (overnight high of 1.3121). From here, the risk of a short-term low would continue to increase and a clear break above 1.3120 would not be surprising (unless GBP can move and stay below 1.3035 within the next 1 to 2 days)."


  • If daily price breaks 1.3136 resistance level to above on close bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  • If daily price breaks 1.3444 resistance level to above on close bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition.
  • If daily price breaks 1.2946 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed with 1.2865 nearest daily target. 
  • If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

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Forecast for Q3'16 - levels for Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.23 09:33

Hang Seng Index (HSI): End Of Week Technicals - bullish continuation or the correction to the bearish reversal

This trading week is ended with some results concerning HSI: the price was continuing with the daily bullish condition and started to be ranging within narrow support/resistance levels for the direction of the bullish continuation or the correction to the bearish reversal.

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D1 price is located to be above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish market condition with the ranging within the following s/r levels:

  • 24,087 resistance level located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 23,142 support level located in the beginning fo the ranging secondary correction to be started.


H4 price is on bullish within s/r levels with the secondary ranging market condition:

  • Chinkou Span line is located above the price for for the possible breakdown in the near future.
  • Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing.
  • Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be broken to above for the bullish.
  • The nearest resistance levels for the bullish trend to be resumed are 24,087 and 24,376.
  • Nearest support levels for the bearish reversal are 23,393 and 23,207.


If H4 price breaks 24,087 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be resumed with 24,376 possible bullish target.
If H4 price breaks 23,393 support so the local downtrend as the secondary ranging correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If H4 price breaks 23,207 support so we may see the bearish reversal to be started for this intra-day price movement.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance
 Support
24,08723,393
24,37623,207

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging