is on ranging around the lower bound of the Ichimoku cloud on the border between the ranging bullish and the primary bearish market condition within the following key
Chinkou Span line is located above the price for the ranging condition, Absolute
Strength indicator is estimating the bearish reversal, and
Trend Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as a primary bearish market condition in the near future.
SUMMARY : bullish
TREND : ranging
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EURUSD - News & Analysis
Mahdi Vaseghmanesh, 2016.10.08 19:48
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.08 09:07
Weekly Outlook: 2016, October 09 - October 16 (based on the article)
German ZEW Economic Sentiment, US FOMC Meeting Minutes, UK Rate decision, US Unemployment Claims, US Crude Oil Inventories, US Consumer Sentiment and Janet Yellen’s speech; These are the main events on forex calendar.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.11 14:36
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: NFIB Small Business Index2016-10-11 10:00 GMT | [USD - NFIB Small Business Index]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - NFIB Small Business Index] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed small businesses.
From 247 wallst article: Small Business Optimism Slips Again in September
"Clearly the stock market loves the Fed, but bloated stock values are not
real productive wealth which is created by real investment in plant,
equipment, research and infrastructure, weak in this recovery. Even
housing with low mortgage rates has not performed up to expectation
based on demographics. It has not occurred to the Fed that what meager
growth we have had has occurred in spite of government policy, not
because of it. The private sector continues to perform poorly in light
of the barriers that governments at all levels throw up in its path."
EUR/USD M5: 37 pips price movement by NFIB Small Business Index news events
USD/CAD M5: 29 pips price movement by NFIB Small Business Index news events
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.12 07:28
Fed Dudley Speaks, Fed George Speaks , Sep FOMC Minutes - Barclays (based on the article)
2016-10-12 12:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks]
[USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks] = Speech at the Fireside Chat with the Business Council of New York, in Albany.
New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: "Dudley
speaks on the economy. Based on his recent speeches, we think he is now
of the view that, from a risk-management perspective, accommodation
should be removed cautiously given the lack of scope to lower rates in
the event of an economic downturn."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.12 07:41
2016-10-12 13:40 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member George Speaks]
[USD - FOMC Member George Speaks] = Speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Annual Payments Symposium.
Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC voter) speaks: "George
speaks on the economic outlook. She has dissented several times this
year. We expect her to maintain her call for a rate hike."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.12 07:54
2016-10-12 18:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes]
[USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing
in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that
influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.
FOMC minutes: "Given the three dissents in favor of a rate hike at the FOMC’s September meeting, we expect the minutes to reveal widening divisions within the committee over the appropriate stance of policy. On one side are
those who believe a rate hike in September would have been warranted
given that the economy is operating near mandate-consistent levels and
mediumterm risks are rising. These concerns were expressed by regional
Fed presidents Rosengren, Mester, and George in remarks leading up to,
and following, the meeting. On the other side are
those FOMC members, primarily within the Board, who point to a slower
removal of labor market slack, via trends in participation and other
variables, and a lack of evidence that inflation or financial
instability are rising, as supporting a further delay in policy
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.14 11:11
EUR/USD Rebounds From Weekly Lows (based on the article)
Daily price was on the breakdown with the bearish reversal: the price was bounced from one week low at 1.0985 to above for the ranging bearish condition to be started:
"The EUR/USD is beginning to pair losses after closing lower for 3
consecutive sessions and declining as much as 219 pips for the week. The
current daily low for the EUR/SUD resides at 1.0985, but technical
traders will continue to monitor the psychological 1.1000 level going
into tomorrow’s University of Michigan’s Confidence figures and Janet
Yellen’s speech at the Boston Fed conference. Both of these events are
marked as high importance events, with both having the ability to shift
the direction of the EUR/USD."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.14 15:27
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and NZD/USD: U.S. Advance Retail Sales2016-10-14 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]
[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.
From MarketWatch article: U.S. retail sales snap back in September
"Sales at U.S. retail stores rebounded in September, with auto dealers
and gas stations racking up the biggest gains, in a sign consumers are
still spending fast enough to keep the economy on solid ground. Retail
sales rose 0.6% last month to snap back from a small decline in August
that was the first in five months. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch
had forecast a 0.7% increase."
EUR/USD M5: 25 pips range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events
USD/CAD M5: 23 pips range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events
NZD/USD M5: 24 pips price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.14 20:20
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and DAX Index: Fed Chair Yellen Speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank2016-10-14 17:30 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks]
[USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks] = Speech named "Macroeconomic Research After the Crisis" at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s Annual Research Conference.
From Bloomberg article: Yellen Sees ‘Plausible Ways’ Hot Economy Could Heal Growth
EUR/USD M5: 24 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speaks news events
DAX Index M5 price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speaks news events