Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 190

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.23 16:06

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Consumer Price Index and 123 pips range price movement

2016-09-23 12:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official Statistics Canada source: The 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the CPI excluding gasoline



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USD/CAD M5: 123 pips range price movement by Canada's Consumer Price Index news event



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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 25.09 - 02.10: ranging near bearish reversal area

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.24 14:00

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is on ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1283 resistance located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 1.1122 support level located below Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started.

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the possible bearish reversal, Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing, and Trend Strength indicator is evaluating the future possible trend as a primary bearish market condition.

If D1 price breaks 1.1122 support level on close bar so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price breaks 1.1283 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be resumed with 1.1366 nearest bullish target to re-enter.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1283 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.1122 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
Support
1.12831.1122
1.1366N/A

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging near bearish reversal


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Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for DAX Index

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.24 16:59

DAX Index October-December 2016 Forecast: ranging inside Ichimoku cloud waiting for direction of the trend

W1 price was on the local uptrend as a bear market rally within the primary bearish market condition: the price came to the Ichimoku cloud from below andSenkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator was tested from inside the cloud to above for the bullish reversal to be started. But the price was finally bounced from Senkou Span back to the Ichimoku cloud for the ranging bearish market condition. For now, the price is located near and below Senkou Span and 10,803 resistance level for the bullish reversal to be started or for the ranging bearish trend to be continuing.

Chinkou Span line is located above the price indicating the ranging condition, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the trend to be ranging as well in the future. By the way, Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line for the possible bullish reversal in the near future for example.


  • If the price breaks 10,803 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
  • If weekly price breaks 9,746 support level on close bar to below so the bearish trend will be resumed with 9,497 nearest bearish weekly target.
  • If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels inside Ichimoku cloud.
Resistance
Support
10,8039,746
N/A9,497

Trend:

W1 - ranging for direction of the trend to be started

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Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for DAX Index

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.24 16:59

DAX Index October-December 2016 Forecast: ranging inside Ichimoku cloud waiting for direction of the trend

W1 price was on the local uptrend as a bear market rally within the primary bearish market condition: the price came to the Ichimoku cloud from below andSenkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator was tested from inside the cloud to above for the bullish reversal to be started. But the price was finally bounced from Senkou Span back to the Ichimoku cloud for the ranging bearish market condition. For now, the price is located near and below Senkou Span and 10,803 resistance level for the bullish reversal to be started or for the ranging bearish trend to be continuing.

Chinkou Span line is located above the price indicating the ranging condition, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the trend to be ranging as well in the future. By the way, Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line for the possible bullish reversal in the near future for example.


  • If the price breaks 10,803 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
  • If weekly price breaks 9,746 support level on close bar to below so the bearish trend will be resumed with 9,497 nearest bearish weekly target.
  • If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels inside Ichimoku cloud.
Resistance
Support
10,8039,746
N/A9,497

Trend:

W1 - ranging for direction of the trend to be started

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Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for USD/CNH

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.25 12:48

USD/CNH October-December 2016 Forecast: ranging within narrow s/r levels for the bullish trend to be continuing or to the correction to be started

W1 price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart for the ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels:

  • 6.7022 resistance level located above Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed on the border between the ranging bullish and the primary bullish trend, and
  • 6.4617 support level located near and below Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the bearish reversal to be started.

Chinkou Span line is located above the price indicating the ranging condition, Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line for the bullish trend to be continuing, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the trend to be ranging in the future.


  • If the price breaks 6.7022 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed with 6.7166 level as the nearest weekly bullish target to re-enter.
  • If weekly price breaks 6.6125 support level on close bar to below so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition will be started.
  • If weekly price breaks 6.4617 support level on close bar to below so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
6.70226.6125
6.71666.4617

Trend:

W1 - ranging bullish

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.26 11:43

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German IFO Business Climate and 11 pips price movement

2016-09-26 08:00 GMT | [EUR - German IFO Business Climate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German IFO Business Climate] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers.

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EUR/USD M5: 11 pips price movement by German IFO Business Climate news event



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Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.26 13:07

GOLD (XAU/USD) October-December 2016 Forecast: ranging for the bullish trend to be continuing or for the secondary correction to be started

W1 price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • 1375.11 resistance level located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 1302.36 support level located above Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the secondary correction to be started on weekly chart.

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the correction to be started, but Absolute Strength indicator and Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator are evaluating the future trend as the ranging bullish condition, and Tenkan-sen line located to be above Kijun-sen line are indicating for the primary bullish trend to be continuing.

By the way, the bearish reversal level is 1171.88, and if the price breaks this level to below so the global bearish reversal will be started for this and next year for example.


  • If the price breaks 1375.11 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If weekly price breaks 1302.36 support level on close bar to below so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
  • If weekly price breaks 1171.88 support level on close bar to below so we may see the reversal of the weekly price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition.
  • If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
Resistance
 Support
1352.531302.36
1367.221210.69
1375.111171.88

Trend:

W1 - bullish ranging within the levels

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Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for S&P 500

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.26 15:47

S&P 500 October-December 2016 Forecast: bullish ranging within s/r channel

W1 price is on bullish ranging condition located above Ichimoku cloud for the ranging within 2191.25 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed and 2106.75 support level for the correction to be started. Bearish reversal level for this timeframe is 1951.31 support level, and if the price breaks this level to below so the long-term bearish reversal will be started.

Chinkou Span line is located above the price indicating the ranging bullish condition, Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the trend as a ranging in the future, and Tenkan-sen line/Kijun-sen line combination of Ichimoku indicator is evaluating the future trend as a primary bullish for example.


  • If the price breaks 2191.25 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If weekly price breaks 2106.75 support level on close bar to below so the local downtrend as a secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
2191.252106.75
N/A
1951.31

Trend:

W1 - ranging bullish

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Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for AUD/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.27 12:16

AUD/USD October-December 2016 Forecast: ranging bullish waiting for breakout or breakdown

W1 price is on ranging market condition located to be above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is located within 0.7755 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed and 0.7330 support level for the bearish reversal to be started. The key resistance level for the bullish trend continuation is 0.7834, and key support for the bearish market condition is 0.7200 psy level with 0.7144 weekly bearish target. Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for direction, and descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the possible bearish reversal.

Chinkou Span line is located near and above the price indicating the ranging condition and ready for breakout or breakdown in the near future, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the trend to be ranging bullish. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line for the bullish trend to be resumed.


  • If the price breaks 0.7755 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed with 0.7834 bullish target to re-enter.
  • If weekly price breaks 0.7330 support level on close bar to below so the reversal of the weekly price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
0.77550.7330
0.78340.7144

Trend:

W1 - ranging bullish

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Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for USD/JPY

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.27 12:31

USD/JPY October-December 2016 Forecast: ranging bearish; 98.97 support to be broken for the bearish trend to be continuing

W1 price is located far below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price was bounced from 99.53 support level to above for the secondary ranging condition to be started with 98.97 key support level which is going to be broken to below in case of the bearish trend to be continuing. By the way, ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the bear market rally to be started if 104.31 resistance is broken to above on close weekly bar for example.

Chinkou Span line is located below the price indicating the bearish trend to be continuing, Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen line of Ichimoku indicator for the bearish continuation in the near future as well, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the trend to be ranging bearish market condition in the future.


  • If the price breaks 104.31 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  • If weekly price breaks 98.97 support level on close bar to below so the bearish trend will be resumed.
  • If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
104.3198.97
109.239,497

Trend:

W1 - ranging bearish

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Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for NZD/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.28 10:28

NZD/USD October-December 2016 Forecast: ranging within narrow s/r levels for the bullish trend to be continuing

W1 price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area of the chart: the price was on the bullish reversal based on breakout started from the February this year by the crossing Ichimoku cloud to above and breaking strong resistance levels on the way to the bullish market condition. For now, the price is on bullish ranging within narrow support/resistance levels: 0.7379/0.7484 resistance for the bullish trend to be resumed and 0.7085 support level for the secondary correction to be started. The bearish reversal levels for this pair on weekly timeframe are 0.6793/0.6630 support, and if the price breaks those levels to below on close weekly bar so the global bearish reversal will be started.

Chinkou Span line is located above the price indicating the bullish market condition, Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line for the bullish trend as well, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the trend to be ranging bullish in the future.


  • If the price breaks 0.7379 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed with 0.7484 nearest bullish target to re-enter.
  • If weekly price breaks 0.7085 support level on close bar to below so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
  • If weekly price breaks 0.6793/0.6630 support levels on close bar to below so we may see the reversal of the weekly price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition.
  • If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
0.73790.7085
0.74840.6793

Trend:

W1 - ranging bullish