Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 199

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.15 09:01

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD : German Gross Domestic Product

2016-11-15 07:00 GMT | [EUR - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

"German economic growth is losing some momentum. In the third quarter of 2016, the gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.2% on the second quarter of 2016 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations; this is reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). In the first half of the year, the GDP had increased somewhat more, by 0.4% in the second quarter and 0.7% in the first quarter."

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EUR/USD M5: 30 pips range price movement by German Gross Domestic Product news events


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USD/CAD M5: 25 pips range price movement by German Gross Domestic Product news events


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AUD/USD M5: 28 pips range price movement by German Gross Domestic Product news events


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.15 15:01

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and GOLD (XAU/USD): Advance Retail Sales

2016-11-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From Market Watch article: U.S. retail sales post biggest back-to-back sales since 2014


"Retail sales jumped 0.8% last month after a revised 1% gain in September, the government said Tuesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast a seasonally adjusted 0.7% advance."

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EUR/USD M5: 30 pips range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events


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USD/CAD M5: 29 pips range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events


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GOLD (XAU/USD) M5: range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.16 06:58

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Labour Price Index and 27 pips range price movement

2016-11-16 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Wage Price Index]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Wage Price Index] = Change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, excluding bonuses.

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From official report:

 

  • "The trend index and the seasonally adjusted index for Australia both rose 0.4% in the September quarter 2016."

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AUD/USD M5: 27 pips range price movement by Australia Labour Price Index news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.16 07:51

Trading News Events: U.K. Claimant Count Change (adapted from dailyfx)

  • "GBP/USD may continue to carve a near-term series of lower highs & lows as U.K. Jobless Claims are projected to increase another 2.0K in October, but a marked pickup in household earnings may heighten the appeal of the British Pound as the Bank of England (BoE) warns ‘monetary policy can respond, in either direction.’"
  • "It seems as though the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is gradually move away from its easing cycle as Governor Mark Carney warns ‘inflation is going up. A pass through of a 20% fall in sterling is going to come and will build towards the end of this year and into 2017,’ and the sterling may stage a larger recovery over the near-term as BoE officials argue that ‘there are limits to the extent to which above-target inflation can be tolerated,’ Nevertheless, the MPC appears to be in no rush to remove the highly accommodative stance as the outlook for the U.K. economy remains clouded with high uncertainty, and the British Pound remains at risk of facing headwinds over the coming months as the region prepares to depart from the European Union (EU)."


Bearish GBP Trade: Job & Wage Growth Falls Short of Market Forecasts

  • "Need red, five-minute candle following the report to favor a short GBP/USD trade."
  • "If market reaction favors a long sterling trade, buy GBP/USD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit."
Bullish GBP Trade: U.K. Employment Report Beats Expectations
  • "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long GBP/USD position."
  • "Implement same setup as the bearish British Pound trade, just in reverse."


Daily price is on bullish trending along Senkou Span line which is the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish area on the chart. The price is on ranging within 1.2673 'bullish continuation' resistance level and 1.2352 'bearish reversal' support level waiting for the direction of the primary trend to be started.

  • If the price will break 1.2673 resistance level on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If price will break 1.2352 support on close daily bar so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

GBP/USD M5: 19 pips range price movement by U.K. Jobless Claims news events 

 

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.16 14:59

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CNH and NZD/USD: Producer Price Index (PPI)

2016-11-16 13:30 GMT | [USD - PPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

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From official report:


"The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.3 percent in September and were unchanged in August. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 0.8 percent for the 12 months ended in October, the largest 12-month rise since advancing 0.9 percent in December 2014."

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EUR/USD M5: 14 pips range price movement by Producer Price Index news events


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USD/CNH M5: 46 pips price movement by Producer Price Index news events


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NZD/USD M5: 17 pips range price movement by Producer Price Index news events


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.17 09:40

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and 34 pips range price movement

2016-11-17 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is -29.0K
  • forecast data is 20.3K
  • actual data is 9.8K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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From official report:

  • "Employment increased 9,800 to 11,938,900. Full-time employment increased 41,500 to 8,126,900 and part-time employment decreased 31,700 to 3,812,000."
  • "Unemployment decreased 2,000 to 705,100. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work increased 700 to 494,300 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work decreased 2,700 to 210,800."
  • "Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.6%."
  • "Participation rate remained steady at 64.4%."
  • "Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 14.3 million hours to 1674.8 million hours."

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AUD/USD M5: 34 pips range price movement by Australian Employment Change news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.17 12:55

GOLD (XAU/USD) Daily Bearish Breakdown With 1.1219 Support To Continue (adapted from the article)

Daily price broke 100-day SMA/200-day SMA reversal levers to be reversed to the primary bearish area of the chart. For now, the price is on testing 1,1219 support level to below for the bearish breakdown to be continuing with 1,211 and 1,200 nearest daily bearish target to re-enter.

  • "The swing-low on Monday of this week came-in right at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the December low to the July high at a price of $1,210.85. But just below that level is a more critical zone of potential support at $1,200, as this is the 38.2% retracement of the Bretton Woods Fix of $35/ounce up to the 2011 high of $1,920. Perhaps more importantly, this level has been recently confirmed as support with an inflection marking the lows in May."
  • "Since that support inflection at $1,210, sellers have begun to display a bit of tepidness. This has allowed prices to trickle back-up to the $1,230-level, and short-term price action is now finding resistance on the projection of the short-term trend-line that we looked at above. But sellers have been unable to re-take control of Gold prices over the past two days."
  • "So while the near-term trend is still very much bearish here, seller’s conviction appears to be waning, and should the rampant strength seen in the U.S. Dollar of recent begin to recede, the long side of Gold can become attractive again. Of particular interest to this theme will be resistance levels at $1,230 and $1,250. The level at $1,230 has shown as near-term swing-resistance, and $1,250 is a Fibonacc`i level that had also provided the swing-low during the Brexit referendum."


Most likely scenarios for the daily price movement are the following: the price will be continuing with the bearish breakdown by 1,200 psy level to be broken, or the ranging bearish condition will be started for the price to be waiting for the direction of the trend based on the future fundamental factors for example.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.17 14:57

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, S&P 500 and Dax Index: U.S. Consumer Price Index and Residential Building Permits

2016-11-17 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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2016-11-17 13:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.

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From official reports:

"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.6 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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EUR/USD M5: 38 pips range price movement by CPI and Building Permits news events


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S&P 500 M5: range price movement by CPI and Building Permits news events


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Dax Index M5: range price movement by CPI and Building Permits news events


 

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Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.18 10:00

Hang Seng Index: End Of Week Technicals - ranging with narrow levels waiting for direction

This trading week is ended with some results concerning Hang Seng Index: the daily price was bounced from 21,903 support level to above for the ranging condition to be started within the primary bearish trend.

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D1 price is located below Ichimoku cloud for the ranging within the following key s/r levels:

  • 22,487 resistance level located in the beginning of the local uptrend as the bear market rally to be started, and
  • 21,903 support level located far below Ichimoku cloud for the primary bearish trend to be resumed.


H4 price is on located on the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within the narrow s/r levels waiting for direction:

  • Chinkou Span line is below the price indicating the ranging bearish trend in the near future.
  • Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the flat.
  • The nearest resistance level for the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish is 22,487.
  • The nearest resistance level for the bullish reversal is 23,008.
  • The nearest support levels for the bearish trend to be resumed are 22,115 and 21,903.


If H4 price breaks 22,487 resistance level to above on close bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
If H4 price breaks 23,008 resistance level to above on close bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the bearish to the primary bullish market condition.
If H4 price breaks 22,115 support on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed with 21,903 bearish target to re-enter.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

Resistance
 Support
23,05122,115
23,50721,903

SUMMARY: bearish

TREND: ranging

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.18 10:48

Trading News Events: Canada Consumer Price Index (adapted from dailyfx)

  • "Another uptick in Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) along with stickiness in the core rate of inflation may foster a larger pullback in USD/CAD as the Bank of Canada (BoC) ‘expects total CPI inflation to be close to 2 percent from early 2017 onwards.’"
  • "Even though the BoC ‘actively’ discussed more stimulus for the real economy, it seems as though Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. will continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as ‘Canada’s economy is still expected to grow at a rate above potential starting in the second half of 2016.’ The risk of overshooting the 2% target for inflation may push the BoC to gradually move away from its easing-cycle, but signs of subdued price growth may encourage the central bank to further support the real economy as the region is anticipated to return to ‘full capacity around mid-2018, materially later than the Bank had anticipated in July.’"


Bullish CAD Trade: Canada CPI Picks Up for Second Consecutive Month

  • "Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on USD/CAD."
  • "If market reaction favors a long loonie trade, sell USD/CAD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit."
Bearish CAD Trade: Inflation Report Falls Short of Market Expectations
  • "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long USD/CAD trade."
  • "Implement same setup as the bullish Canadian dollar trade, just in the opposite direction."


Daily price is on bullish ranging condition for 1.3551 resistance level to be broken on close daily bar for the daily bullish trend to be resumed. Alternative, if the price breaks 1.3399 support level to below on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.

  • If the price will break 1.3551 resistance level on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If price will break 1.3399 support on close daily bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

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USD/CAD M5: 24 pips range price movement by Canada Consumer Price Index news events



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