Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 191

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for GBP/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.28 18:30

GBP/USD October-December 2016 Forecast: ranging below Ichimoku cloud near key support level for the bearish trend to be resumed

W1 price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price is on ranging since end of June this year within the narrow support resistance levels: 1.3444 resistance for the bear market rally to be started and 1.2794 support level for the bearish trend to be resumed. Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the local rally to be started, but the price is on testing with 1.2914 support level to below for 1.2794 bearish target to re-enter for the bearish trend to be continuing.

Chinkou Span line is below the price indicating the ranging condition, Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen line for the bearish trend to be resumed, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the trend to be ranging bearish in the near future for example.


  • If the price breaks 1.3444 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the local uptrend as a bear market rally will be started with 1.3643 possible target.
  • If weekly price breaks 1.2794 support level on close bar to below so the bearish trend will be resumed.
  • If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.34441.2914
1.36431.2794

Trend:

W1 - ranging bearish

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Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.29 11:53

Hang Seng Index October-December 2016 Forecast: bullish trend to be continuing or the ranging to be started?

W1 price was on breakout with the bullish reversal: the price broke Ichimoku cloud to above to be reversed from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition. For now, the price is located near and above Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the ranging condition to be started.

Chinkou Span line is located above the price indicating the bullish market condition, Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line for the bullish trend to be continuing, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the trend to be ranging as well in the future.


  • If the price breaks 24,376 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If weekly price breaks 23,207 support level on close bar to below so the reversal of the weekly price movement from the primary bullish to the ranging bearish market condition will be started.
  • If weekly price breaks 20,572 support level on close bar to below so the price will be fully reversed to the primary bearish condition.
  • If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.
ResistanceSupport
24,37623,207
N/A
20,572
Trend:

W1 - bullish

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 02.10 - 09.10: bullish ranging near above Ichimoku cloud

Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.01 15:37

Daily price is located near and above Ichimoku cloud for the ranging on the border between the primary bullish trend to be resumed and the ranging bullish market condition tio be started within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1278 resistance located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 1.1181 support level located below Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started.

Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the possible bullish trend, Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing, and Trend Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as a primary bearish market condition.

If D1 price breaks 1.1181 support level on close bar so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started with 1.1122 level as a daily bearish target.
If D1 price breaks 1.1278 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be resumed with 1.1366 nearest bullish target to re-enter.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1283 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.1181 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
Support
1.12781.1181
1.13661.1122

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.04 12:40

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Bulls Can Almost Taste 3-Month Highs (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish masrket condition for 51.10 resistance level to be tested for the bullish trend to be continuing.

  • "Oil Bulls continue to be rewarded by an OPEC Accord to curb production as the price of spot WTI trades at the highest levels since July. While the recent rise has been impressive following the post-Brexit announcement move down to $39.17, what is more impressive is the potential longer-term chart set-up for a Bull Run to the upside."
  • "There is still cause for concern by some who think a USD Bull Market is in the making once the Fed decides to raise short-term interest rates or due to weakness elsewhere. Such a strengthening of the US Dollar could naturally put pressure on the price of Oil. However, if the USD fails to mature into an uptrend, we could be setting up for a favorable environment for further upside in the price of Crude Oil."
  • "Another development in institutional positioning is the largest increase in long positions in WTI since January. This bullish positioning is an aggressive reversal from the bearish sentiment that had not been seen since September 2015 in recent CoT readings. The bullish sentiment comes in the forms of straight long positions via futures as well as options contracts that increased 8.1%. Such bullish exposure could see the market favor further."


If the price breaks 51.10 resistance level to above on daily close bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 45.70 support level to below on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If the price breaks 43.44 support level so we may see the reversal of the daily price movement to the primary bearish market condition.


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.05 13:02

Trading News Events: U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing (adapted from the article)

  • "A rebound in the U.S ISM Non-Manufacturing survey may fuel the near-term strength in the greenback and spark a selloff in EUR/USD should the report boost expectations for a 2016 Fed rate-hike."
  • "It seems as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is taking a similar path to 2015 as a growing number of officials endorse higher borrowing-costs, and the central bank may continue to take a more collective approach to prepare U.S. households and businesses for a December rate-hike as ‘the Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened.’ However, market participants may pay increased attention to the 2017-rotation as the three dissenting members from the September interest-rate decision (Esther George, Loretta Mester, and Eric Rosengren) give up their votes, and the decline in the long-run forecast for the federal funds rate may become a key theme in the year ahead as Chair Janet Yellen continues to endorse a ‘gradual’ path in normalizing monetary policy."


Daily price is on bullish ranging above 200-day SMA (200 SMA) and 100-day SMA (100 SMA) for the primary bullish trend to be resumed or for the bearish reversal to be started.

  • If D1 price breaks 1.1278 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the primary bullish market condition will be ressumed.
  • If price breaks 1.1137 support to below on close daily bar so the reversal of ther daily price movement from the ranging bulliush to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

(all images/charts were made using Metatrader 5 software and free indicators from MQL5 CodeBase)


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.05 13:02

Trading News Events: U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing (adapted from the article)

  • "A rebound in the U.S ISM Non-Manufacturing survey may fuel the near-term strength in the greenback and spark a selloff in EUR/USD should the report boost expectations for a 2016 Fed rate-hike."
  • "It seems as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is taking a similar path to 2015 as a growing number of officials endorse higher borrowing-costs, and the central bank may continue to take a more collective approach to prepare U.S. households and businesses for a December rate-hike as ‘the Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened.’ However, market participants may pay increased attention to the 2017-rotation as the three dissenting members from the September interest-rate decision (Esther George, Loretta Mester, and Eric Rosengren) give up their votes, and the decline in the long-run forecast for the federal funds rate may become a key theme in the year ahead as Chair Janet Yellen continues to endorse a ‘gradual’ path in normalizing monetary policy."


Daily price is on bullish ranging above 200-day SMA (200 SMA) and 100-day SMA (100 SMA) for the primary bullish trend to be resumed or for the bearish reversal to be started.

  • If D1 price breaks 1.1278 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the primary bullish market condition will be ressumed.
  • If price breaks 1.1137 support to below on close daily bar so the reversal of ther daily price movement from the ranging bulliush to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

(all images/charts were made using Metatrader 5 software and free indicators from MQL5 CodeBase)


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.05 17:09

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

2016-10-05 13:45 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

==========

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI® registered 57.1 percent in September, 5.7 percentage points higher than the August reading of 51.4 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased substantially to 60.3 percent, 8.5 percentage points higher than the August reading of 51.8 percent, reflecting growth for the 86th consecutive month, at a noticeably faster rate in September. The New Orders Index registered 60 percent, 8.6 percentage points higher than the reading of 51.4 percent in August. The Employment Index increased 6.5 percentage points in September to 57.2 percent from the August reading of 50.7 percent. The Prices Index increased 2.2 percentage points from the August reading of 51.8 percent to 54 percent, indicating prices increased in September for the sixth consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 14 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in September. The comments from the respondents are mostly positive about business conditions and the overall economy. A degree of uncertainty does exist due to geopolitical conditions coupled with the upcoming U.S. presidential election."

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EUR/USD M5: 27 pips price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events


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USD/CAD M5: 43 pips range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.06 14:31

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is on bearish breakdown located below 100 SMA/200 SMA area. The price is breaking 1.1183 support level to below for the primary bearish trend to be continuing.




Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for this pair the ranging trend to be continuing:

"EUR spent another day going nowhere and at this stage, there is no pre-indication that the current neutral phase is about to end soon. In other words, the expected sideway trading range of 1.1120/1.1290 that was first highlighted about 2 weeks ago is still intact."


  • If daily price breaks 1.1278 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If daily price breaks 1.1122 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.06 17:50

Hang Seng Index Daily Technicals: bullish ranging inside s/r channel

Daily price is on ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • 23,911 resistance located above Ichimoku cloud, and
  • 23,204 support level located inside Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the bearish reversal to be started.


If the price breaks 23,911 level to above on close daily bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 23,204 support level on close bar to below so we may see the bearish reversal of thee daily price movement.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.07 14:52

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: Non-Farm Payrolls

2016-10-07 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 156,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 5.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in professional and business services and in health care."

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EUR/USD M5: 52 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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USD/CAD M5: 103 pips price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events