GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Retail Sales and 17 pips range price movement
2016-10-20 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Retail Sales]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.
From official report:
GBP/USD M5: 17 pips range price movement by U.K. Retail Sales news event
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD : Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey2016-10-20 12:30 GMT | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.
"The index for current manufacturing activity in the region edged down,
from a reading of 12.8 in September to 9.7 this month. The index has now
been positive for three consecutive months (see Chart 1). Other broad
indicators showed notable improvement. The new orders index improved
markedly this month, increasing from 1.4 in September to 16.3 in
October. The percentage of firms reporting increases in new orders this
month rose to 40 percent from 30 percent last month. The current
shipments index also improved, rising 24 points to 15.3. The delivery
times, unfilled orders, and inventories indexes remained weak, however,
with all registering negative readings, although they were less negative
than in September."
EUR/USD M5: 75 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events
USD/CAD M5: 38 pips range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events
Trading the News: Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) (adapted from the article)
Bullish CAD Trade: Canada CPI Rebounds in September
is located near and above 200-day SMA (200 SMA) for the primary bullish market condition.
USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Consumer Price Index and 92 pips range price movement
2016-10-21 12:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
Seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index:
USD/CAD M5: 92 pips range price movement by Canada's Consumer Price Index news event
Dollar Index - "Other fundamental fodder to move the rate
view and/or the Dollar include a host of Fed speeches penciled in. The
terms of this policy group’s tone is changing with remarks like those
made by San Francisco Fed President John Williams who said they should
have hiked in September and low rates can lead to a recession. Another
indicator to keep tabs on is the Conference Board’s consumer sentiment
survey. Both the headline and components are valuable forecasting for
economic activity moving forward."
GBP/USD - "The broader outlook for GBP/USD remains
tilted to the downside as it preserves the bearish trend carried over
from the previous month, but the range-bound price action following the
British Pound ‘flash crash’ may persist ahead of the key U.S./U.K. event
risks as market participants weigh the diverging paths for monetary
policy. Nevertheless, the recent development in the Relative Strength
Index (RSI) suggests a larger recovery could be at hand as the
oscillator breaks out of the near-term bearish formation and climbs out
of oversold territory, and a break/close above 1.2360 (50% expansion) in
the exchange rate may generate a larger correction as the weakness in
the pound-dollar appears to be exhausted."
AUD/USD - "Next week brings us such a data point: On Tuesday evening in the United States (Wednesday morning in Australia), 3rd
quarter GDP will be released. Current expectations are looking for .5%
Quarterly growth to go along with 1.1% annualized growth. Should this
number come out above expectations, we’ll likely see some element of
strength in the Aussie with a miss bringing weakness into the currency."
USD/CAD - "The main economic data point for the week ahead is Monday’s
Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, which will look to improve over July’s number
of 0.3%. There will likely be a speech by PM Trudeau
either over the weekend or early next week to discuss what the next
steps will be for the trade negotiations with the European Union. He has
already had stern words for the EU, and they’ll likely stay heated
following Freeland’s experience in Belgium. The fundamental bent appears
to remain bearish for the Canadian Economy until we see the homeland
data start to pick-up beyond the recent employment surprise."
USD/CNH - "In terms of Yuan’s recent losses against the
U.S. Dollar, Ms. Wang said that it was driven by expectations of
imminent Fed rate hike; it is normal for the Yuan to fluctuate in the
short-term due to external factors and the moves are within ‘an
explainable range’. Also, she told that China’s capital outflows have
seen slowing down in September. Wang’s comments indicate that the
Chinese regulator is less likely to draw a red line for Yuan rates in
the near-term amid the Dollar advance. This means that the USD/CNH and
the USD/CNY could set fresh highs over the following periods."
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Highlighting the economic docket next week is
the advanced read on U.S. 3Q GDP with consensus estimates calling for
an annualized print of 2.5% q/q. The Core Personal Consumption
Expenditure (PCE) will be of particular interest with market
expectations calling for a slowdown to 1.6% q/q from 1.8% q/q. Keep in
mind that this is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation and a softer
than expected print could weigh on expectations for a 2016 rate hike. As
is stands, Fed Fund Futures are pricing in a 68% likelihood the central
bank will hike in December. Look for advances in gold to remain limited
as the prospect of higher interest rates weigh on demand for the yellow
metal as a store of wealth."