Dollar Index October-December 2016 Forecast: bearish ranging near weekly bullish reversal
W1 price is on ranging to be near and below Ichimoku cloud on the border between the primary bearish market condition to be started. The symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the direction of the trend: for the bullish reversal or to the bearish trend to be resumed.Chinkou Span line
is located near and below the price for the ranging bearish condition by the direction, Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the trend to be ranging as
well, and Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line
for the possible bullish reversal to be started on the secondary ranging way for example.
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.30 20:27
Dollar Index Daily Technicals: ranging within 100-day SMA/200-day SMA for direction; 95.95 is the key resistance for the bullish reversal (based on the article)
Daily price is located below 200 SMA and above 100 SMA for the ranging bearish market condition.
"The clearest section of recent DXY price action is the 3 wave rally from
the May low. That alone suggests that the path of least resistance is
lower. Of course, weakness from the July high isn’t impulsive either
(but could be motive), which leaves the wave picture unclear. Pay
attention to the rising trendline just below price. Weakness below would
be the best signal yet that a breakdown is underway. Downward slope is
defined by the December-January trendline and also serves as the bearish
If the price breaks 95.95 resistance on close daily bar so the bullish reversal will be started.If the price breaks 95.05 support level on close daily bar so the primary bearrish trend will be resumed.If not so the price will be on bearish rangging within the levels.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.08 10:50
Dollar Index - "While the warning on risk trends may seem threadbare at this
point, it is nevertheless a market catalyst that could systemically
change market and financial structure conditions. Benchmarks like the S&P 500 have worked their way back into extraordinarily tight rangeswhile liquidity continues to bleed away
yet volatility lingers. The crumbling of confidence in monetary policy
(market-born) and fading outlook for growth (generally accepted after
the IMF’s updates) represent a transfer of risk squarely onto the
shoulders of the complacent market participant. It is not a question of
‘if’ but ‘when’. And, the transition from losing yield advantage to an
outright demand for absolute haven will happen quickly for the Greenback
in such an event."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.14 10:57
Dollar Index Overview: breaking 98.13 resistance for 98.33/58 bullish target (adapted from the article)
is located above SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period
200 (200 SMA) for the bullish market condition. The price is on breaking 98.13 to above for the bullish trend to be continuing with 98.33/58 bullish target.
If the price will break 98.13 resistance level so we may see the bullish trend to be continuing.If price will break 95.69 support so the reversal of the daily price movement from the bullish to the primary bearish trend will be started.If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.22 12:13
Dollar Index - "Other fundamental fodder to move the rate
view and/or the Dollar include a host of Fed speeches penciled in. The
terms of this policy group’s tone is changing with remarks like those
made by San Francisco Fed President John Williams who said they should
have hiked in September and low rates can lead to a recession. Another
indicator to keep tabs on is the Conference Board’s consumer sentiment
survey. Both the headline and components are valuable forecasting for
economic activity moving forward."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.29 10:44
Dollar Index - "Though there are a lot of direct fundamental sparks to move the Dollar in the week ahead, we should still keep sight of the crosswinds. Much of the Greenback’s movements these past weeks have come on the basis of weakening counterparts. Motivated counter currencies can keep the pressure – bullish or bearish – on the Dollar moving forward. Themes of Brexit, China devaluation, faltering Eurozone stability and BoJ capitulation stand ready to move the needle."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.05 10:42
Weekly Outlook: 2016, November 06 - November 13 (based on the article)
US Presidential Election, Crude Oil Inventories, Unemployment Claims, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Rate decision in New Zealand. These are the main highlights of this week.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.07 11:14
Dollar Index - "Two, four, eight weeks after the US election
passes; we will likely see the impact of the event fade into a more
subtle promotion of the prevailing trend. There is certainly capacity
for the change in leadership to contribute to the bigger picture
bearings on speculative positioning; but sentiment’s drive will likely
draw from more elemental sources. That means other drivers will likely
return to the forefront for global markets and even the Dollar itself.
The probability of a December 14th FOMC
hike is a factor that is likely to regain its sway over the market
after this event passes. According to Fed Funds futures the chances of a
hike before year end stand at 78 percent through Friday which is a
significant gain over the previous few weeks. Yet the Dollar slid. That
is evidence not of a broken fundamental driver, but the market
prioritizing. When the risk factor passes, that theme will return. After
the Fed’s statement and the strong wage growth in NFPs this past week, a
rate hike looks like a high probability. So long as risk doesn’t
subvert those chances, a refocus could support the Greenback."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.11 07:30
US Dollar Index Daily Technicals: ranging bullish (based on the article)
"Charts don’t predict. Rather, the interpretation of trend and identification of price levels aid in tactics. The most recent comments for DXY were “the major trend defining test is the May-August trendline (channel bottom) and 200 day average (currently 95.82).” The reaction low after the election was 95.89. Did the chart ‘predict’ that the market was going there? Of course not. But, if you had this chart on hand Tuesday night, you’d be aware of the potential for big support on the drop. 1 day later and DXY is already nearing channel resistance."
Daily price is located above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA revcersal levels on the bullish area of the chart: the price is on ranging within 99.12 "bullish continuation" resistance level and 95.89 "bearish reversal" support level. Most likely midterm scenario for the daily price movement is the following: the price will be continuing with bullish ranging within 99 resistance and 95 support levels.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.19 07:40
Weekly Outlook: 2016, November 20 - November 27 (based on the article)
The US dollar continued marching forward, accompanied by clear hints of a rate hike. US Durable Goods Orders, UK GDP and the all-important FOMC Meeting Minutes stand out in the week of Thanksgiving. These are the major events on forex calendar.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.23 09:41
Quick Technical Overview - Dollar Index: daily bullish with 101.48 resistance (adapted from the article)
Dollar Index daily chart: bullish. The price is located far above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart. The price is testing 101.48 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing, otherwise - ranging bullish.