Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 100

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newdigital, 2015.01.23 10:56

Trading the News: Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on dailyfx article)

A slowdown in Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may spur fresh monthly highs in USD/CAD especially as the Bank of Canada (BoC) reverts back to its easing cycle.

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

After unexpectedly cutting the benchmark interest rate at the January 21 meeting, a marked slowdown in Canada price growth may put increased pressure on the BoC to further reduce borrowing costs, and the Canadian dollar remains at risk of facing more headwinds over the near to medium-term as Governor Stephen Poloz keeps the door open to implement additional monetary support.

Nevertheless, the pickup in economic activity may generate a stronger-than-expected CPI print, and an uptick in the core rate of inflation may spur a near-term correction in USD/CAD as the stickiness limits the BoC’s scope to further reduce the benchmark interest rate.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish CAD Trade: Weak CPI Print Drags on Interest Rate Expectations

  • Need green, five-minute candle following a dismal CPI report to consider long USD/CAD entry
  • If the market reaction favors a bearish Canadian dollar trade, establish long with two position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from cost; use at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bullish CAD Trade: Sticky Core Inflation Dampens Bets for Another Rate Cut
  • Need red, five-minute candle following the release to look at a short USD/CAD trade
  • Carry out the same setup as the bearish loonie trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The Release
USD/CAD Daily



  • Bullish RSI structure continues to favor the approach to buy-dips in USD/CAD especially as the oscillator pushes deeper into overbought territory.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.2390 (161.8% expansion) to 1.2430 (1.618% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.1990 (78.6% expansion) to 1.2000 pivot
Impact that the Canada CPI report has had on CAD during the last month

Period Data Released Survey Actual Pips Change
(1 Hour post event )
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
NOV
2014
12/19/2014 13:30 GMT 2.2% 2.0% -2 +1

November 2014 Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI)

USDCAD M5: 28 pips price movement by CAD - CPI news event



Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to an annualized rate of 2.0% in November from 2.4% the month prior, while the core rate of inflation slipped to 2.1% from 2.3% during the same period. Indeed, falling energy prices attributed to a 1.7% decline in transportation costs, but we may see Canadian firms continue to offer discounted prices in an effort to draw greater demand. As a result, the Bank of Canada (BoC) may further delay normalizing monetary policy, and Governor Stephen Poloz may continue to endorse the accommodative policy stance over the near to medium-term in order to encourage a stronger recovery. The market reaction was short-lived as USD/CAD quickly slipped back below the 1.1625 region, and the pair continued to consolidate throughout the North American trade as it ended the day at 1.1602.

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USDCAD, M5, 2015.01.23

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USDCAD M5: 51 pips price movement by CAD - CPI news event

USDCAD, M5, 2015.01.23, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



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newdigital, 2015.01.28 17:16

US Dollar May Fall as FOMC Fails to Fuel Interest Rate Hike Bets (based on dailyfx article)

  • US Dollar May Fall as Status-Quo FOMC Fails to Fuel Rate Hike Outlook
  • Aussie Dollar Gains as CPI Data Undermines RBA Interest Rate Cut Bets

A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see traders looking ahead to the US session for direction cues, with the spotlight pointing firmly to the outcome of the FOMC monetary policy meeting. Janet Yellen and company introduced a much-discussed change to the language of the policy statement at December’s sit-down, swapping out a pledge to hold rates low for a “considerable time” after the end of QE3 and replacing it with another promising to be “patient” before tightening. It seems unlikely that the cautiously slow-moving US central bank will opt to tinker with policy again so soon after making an adjustment, meaning today’s announcement will probably stick closely to the status quo.

The substance of the FOMC outcome and its interpretation by the financial markets need not align however. The markets seem primed for a hawkish result, if only because the US Dollar is hovering near six-year highs while speculative net-long positioning in the benchmark unit is at the highest since at least 1993. An outcome that sees the Fed in wait-and-see mode and fails to meaningfully advance the case for tightening may have a hard time sustaining such levels. In fact, it may serve to remind investors that the central bank has signaled no rate hikes will occur through April.


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newdigital, 2015.01.28 20:30

2015-01-28 19:00 GMT (or 21:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]
  • past data is 0.25%
  • forecast data is 0.25%
  • actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.

==========

"To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. The Committee also reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent."

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USDCAD, M5, 2015.01.28

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USDCAD M5: 75 pips price movement by USD - Federal Funds Rate news event

USDCAD, M5, 2015.01.28, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



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newdigital, 2015.01.29 05:57

2015-01-28 20:00 GMT (or 22:00 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - Official Cash Rate]

if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Official Cash Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.

==========

RBNZ Holds OCR Steady At 3.50%

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy board on Thursday decided to hold its Official Cash Rate steady at 3.50 percent - in line with expectations.

It was the fourth straight month with no change for the RBNZ, which had hiked the OCR by 25 basis points in each of previous four meetings prior to September.

Before that, there were 23 straight meetings with no change. The OCR had been at a record low 2.50 percent since March 10, 2011 as the country dealt with the global economic slowdown.

It wasn't until last March that the central bank felt confident enough in a recovery that it lifted the OCR - although no additional action is likely in the near term.

"Trading partner growth in 2015 is expected to be similar to 2014, though the outlook is weaker than anticipated last year. Divergences continue among regions, with growth in China, Japan and the euro area easing in recent quarters, while growth in the US has remained robust," the bank said in a statement accompanying the decision.

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NZDUSD, M5, 2015.01.29

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NZDUSD M5: 116 pips price movement by NZD - Official Cash Rate news event

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newdigital, 2015.01.30 10:38

Trading News Events: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (based on dailyfx article)

The advance U.S. 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may generate a larger rebound in EUR/USD should the fresh batch of data highlight a slowing recovery in the world’s largest economy.

What’s Expected:





Why Is This Event Important:

Even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to raise the benchmark interest rate in mid-2015, a dismal GDP print may push the central bank to further delay its normalization cycle especially as it struggles to achieve the 2% target for inflation.

Nevertheless, improved confidence along with the ongoing recovery in the labor market may prompt a strong GDP figure, and a positive development may promote a further decline in EUR/USD amid the deviation in the policy outlook.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish USD Trade: 4Q GDP Fails to Meet Market Expectations

  • Need to see green, five-minute candle following the GDP report to consider a long trade on EURUSD
  • If market reaction favors a short dollar trade, buy EURUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bullish USD Trade: Growth Rate Expands 3.0% or Greater
  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EURUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in reverse
Potential Price Targets For The Release

EUR/USD Daily


  • Keeping a close eye on the RSI as it continues to flirt with the 30 level; rebound from oversold territory to favor a larger rebound for EUR/USD.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1440 (23.6% retracement) to 1.1470 (78.6% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.1096 (January low) to 1.1100 pivot
Impact that the U.S. GDP report has had on EUR/USD during the last release

PeriodData ReleasedEstimateActualPips Change
(1 Hour post event )
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
3Q A
2014
10/30/2014 12:30 GMT 3.0% 3.5% +12 +19

3Q 2014 U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

EURUSD M5: 36 pips price movement by USD - GDP news event :


The U.S. economy advanced more-than-expected in the third-quarter, with the growth rate expanding another annualized 3.5% following the 4.6% expansion during the three-months through June. At the same time, Personal Consumption climbed 1.8% during the same period amid forecasts for a 1.9% print, while the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) narrowed to 1.4% from 2.0% in the second-quarter. Despite the better-than-expected GDP print, the Fed appears to be in no rush to normalize monetary policy as it struggles to achieve the 2% target for inflation. The initial reaction in EUR/USD was short-lived as the pair snapped back from the 1.2550 region, with the pair ending the day at 1.2602.

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USDCAD, M5, 2015.01.30

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USDCAD M5: 141 pips price movement by USD - GDP news event

USDCAD, M5, 2015.01.30, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



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newdigital, 2015.02.03 06:26

2015-02-03 03:30 GMT (or 05:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Cash Rate]

if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] =Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.

==========

RBA Lowers Cash Rate On Tempered Growth And Inflation Outlook

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its cash rate on Tuesday at its February meeting, with the decision premised on the central bank's downgraded growth outlook and the impact of falling oil prices.

The Monetary Policy Board lowered the cash rate to 2.25 percent from 2.5 percent. The markets were divided over their expectations concerning a rate cut, although the equity market did price in a rate cut and advanced on Monday despite the broad based weakness in Asia.

Ahead of the decision, the cash rate had been maintained at 2.5 percent since August 2013.

The bank said that commodity prices declined sharply and that the price of oil has fallen significantly over the past few months.

These trends appear to reflect a combination of lower growth in demand and, more importantly, significant increases in supply. The much lower levels of energy prices will act to strengthen global output and temporarily to lower CPI inflation rates, the bank noted.

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AUDUSD, M5, 2015.02.03

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AUDUSD M5: 150 pips price movement by AUD - Cash Rate news event

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Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

newdigital, 2013.09.01 21:06

This my post? red dotted lines are for possible sell stop trade, blue dotted lines are are possible buy stop ...

=============

Anyway - I just copied some latest summary from this thread :

=============

Market Condition Evaluation

story/thread was started from here/different thread

================================

Market condition

  • the theory with examples (primary trend, secondary trend) - read staring from this post till this one
  • Summary about market condition theory is on this post 
  • Practical examples about every market condition case by indicators: starting from this page till this one
     
  • trendstrength_v2 indicator is here,
     
  • AbsoluteStrength indicator new version is here

================================ 

3 Stoch MaFibo trading system for M5 and M1 timeframe 

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PriceChannel ColorPar Ichi system.

 

================================ 

MaksiGen trading system 

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 Merrill's patterns are on this page.

 

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Divergence - how to use, explanation and where to read about.

  

================================

Scalp_net trading system

  • template/indicators and how to use are on this comment.

  • scalp_net_v132_tf EA is on this post with optimization results/settings for EURUSD M5 timeframe
     
  • possible settings #1 for this EA for EURUSD M5 timeframe with backtesting results is on this post.
     

================================  

MTF systems 

more to follow ...

================================

MA Channel Stochastic system is here.

================================

Ichimoku


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newdigital, 2015.02.05 09:10

2015-02-05 00:30 GMT (or 02:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

==========


  • The trend estimate rose 0.2% in December 2014. This follows a rise of 0.3% in November 2014 and a rise of 0.3% in October 2014.
  • The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.2% in December 2014. This follows a rise of 0.1% in November 2014 and a rise of 0.4% in October 2014.
  • In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 3.3% in December 2014 compared with December 2013.
  • The following industries rose in trend terms in December 2014: Food retailing (0.4%), Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.6%), Household goods retailing (0.3%), Department stores (0.4%) and Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.1%). Other retailing (-0.4%) fell in trend terms in December 2014.
  • The following states and territories rose in trend terms in December 2014: New South Wales (0.3%), Western Australia (0.3%), Queensland (0.2%), South Australia (0.5%), Victoria (0.1%), the Australian Capital Territory (0.8%) and the Northern Territory (0.3%). Tasmania (-0.2%) fell in trend terms in December 2014.

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AUDUSD, M5, 2015.02.05

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AUDUSD M5: 28 pips price movement by AUD - Retail Sales news event

AUDUSD, M5, 2015.02.05, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



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newdigital, 2015.02.06 10:57

Trading News Events: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (based on dailyfx article)

A 230K rise in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) accompanied by faster wage growth may heighten the appeal of the greenback and spur a short-term selloff in EUR/USD as it boosts expectations of seeing the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) normalize monetary policy in mid-2015.

What’s Expected:




Why Is This Event Important:

Indeed, a further improvement in labor dynamics may put increased pressure on the Fed to raise the benchmark interest rate sooner-rather-than-later, but the subdued outlook for inflation may prompt the central bank to further delay its normalization cycle as price/wage growth remains weak.

However, the rise in planned job-cuts paired with the slowdown in private-sector consumption may generate a weaker-than-expected NFP print, and a dismal employment report may generate a larger correction in EUR/USD as it drags on interest rate expectations.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: Job/Wage Growth Exceeds Market Expectations

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
  • If market reaction favors a long dollar position, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: U.S. Employment Report Disappoints
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EUR/USD Daily


  • Long-term outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish as the RSI retains the downward trend carried over from back in October 2013.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1600 pivot to 1.6110 (61.8% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.1300 (161.8% expansion) to 1.1310 (100% expansion)
Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month
PeriodData ReleasedEstimateActualPips Change
(1 Hour post event )
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
DEC 2014 01/09/2015 13:30 GMT 240K 252K -35 +25
December 2014 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

EURUSD M5: 46 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event :



U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs) beat market forecasts as the economy added 252K jobs in December following an upwardly revised 353K expansion the month prior. At the same time, the unemployment rate narrowed more-than-expected to an annualized 5.6% to mark the lowest reading since August 2008. However, Average Hourly Earnings unexpectedly slowed to 1.7% during the same period amid forecasts for a 2.2% print, and the weakening outlook for inflation may push the Fed to further delay its normalization cycle as it struggles to achieve the 2% target for price growth. Nevertheless, the initial bullish reaction in the greenback was short-lived as EUR/USD worked its way back above the 1.1800 handle, with the pair ending the day at 1.1839.

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GBPUSD, M5, 2015.02.06

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GBPUSD M5: 66 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event

GBPUSD, M5, 2015.02.06, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



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newdigital, 2015.02.11 09:51

2015-02-11 07:45 GMT (or 09:45 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - France Current Account]
  • past data is €0.3B
  • forecast data is €-0.1B
  • actual data is €-1.9B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - France Current Account] = The current account released by the Banque de France is a net flow of current transactions, including goods, services and interest payments into and out of France. A current account surplus indicates that the flow of capital into the country exceeds the capital reduction. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Euro, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

==========

France Current Account Swings To Deficit In December

France's current account turned to a deficit in December from a surplus in the previous month, as the visible trade shortfall widened on the back of higher volume of oil imports, data from the Bank of France showed Wednesday.

The current account showed a deficit of EUR 1.9 billion versus a surplus of EUR 0.3 billion in November. The goods trade surplus widened to EUR 1.9 billion from EUR 1 billion, while the surplus in the services trade fell to EUR 0.1 billion from EUR 1.4 billion.

The income account balances were stable. The financial account showed a deficit of EUR 16.3 billion compared to a surplus of EUR 5.1 billion in the previous month. The capital account surplus grew to EUR 0.5 billion from EUR 0.1 billion.

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EURUSD, M5, 2015.02.11

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EURUSD M5: 22 pips price movement by EUR - France Current Account news event

EURUSD, M5, 2015.02.11, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo