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newdigital, 2015.02.12 11:37
Trading News Events: U.S. Retail Sales (based on dailyfx article)
Another contraction in U.S. Retail Sales may drag on the greenback and
generate a near-term rebound in EUR/USD as it dampens the Fed’s scope to
raise the benchmark interest rate in mid-2015.
Why Is This Event Important:
The Fed may have little choice but to further delay its normalization
cycle as lower energy costs show little evidence of boosting
private-sector consumption, and we may see the central bank implement a
more dovish twist to the forward-guidance for monetary policy as it
struggles to achieve the 2% target for inflation.
Nevertheless, the pickup in job/wage growth may pave the way for a
better-than-expected print, and a positive development may spark a
bearish reaction in EUR/USD as market participants ramp up bets for
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish USD Trade: U.S. Retail Sales Falls Another 0.4% or Greater
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2015.02.12
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
EURUSD M5: 44 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event
newdigital, 2015.02.17 06:04
[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent
meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that
influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.
Some economists, like Annette Beacher – TD Securities Head of Asia
Pacific Research – believe May is the best bet for the next RBA cut. But
other economists seem to be cautiously optimistic that another cut at
the March meeting is “live.”The context of “live”, or not, is shaped by the Minutes, which
revealed the RBA had the same debate in private that the market and
pundits had in public about the timing of the February cut.
Felicity Emmett, ANZ’s co-Head of Australian Economics
is relying on history for the March cut and expects, “another 25bp cut
at the March meeting given the Bank’s historical tendency towards
consecutive moves in the early part of a new cycle and its own research
which suggests that the impact of one 25bp rate cut on the economy is
The Minutes showed that: "In deciding the timing of such a change, members assessed arguments for
acting at this meeting or at the following meeting. On balance, they
judged that moving at this meeting, which offered the opportunity of
early additional communication in the forthcoming Statement on Monetary
Policy, was the preferred course."
AUDUSD, M5, 2015.02.17
AUDUSD M5: 41 pips range price movement by AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event
newdigital, 2015.02.19 05:50
[USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing
in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that
influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.
FOMC Minutes - Reactions From 10 Major Banks
BofA Merrill: The recent steady stream of Fed speakers
advocating for a potential June rate hike led to expectations for
relatively hawkish FOMC minutes. The headlines for the minutes surprised
to the dovish side, and led to a decline in Treasury yields and the US
dollar. However, a closer reading suggested a more modest dovish bent
with a lot of disagreement among participants. Thus, attention now
shifts to Chair Yellen's Congressional testimony next week, which in our
view should elaborate and update the assessment of risks while still
leaving a June liftoff in play. We expect persistently below-target
inflation delays the Fed until September, but the minutes confirm a fair
degree of uncertainty about the timing of the first rate hike.
Credit Agricole: The minutes of the January FOMC
meeting were relatively dovish and spelled more caution over the
inflation outlook and timing of the rate liftoff. On balance, we
continue to expect rate normalization to begin in the Q3 2015.
UBS: The minutes of this FOMC meeting are quite
ambiguous. There was no definitive view on the impact of foreign
developments. Also, there was no clear view on the outlook or the timing
of the first rate hike. This was due, likely in part, to the fact that
there was uncertainty about the right inflation measures to look at and
what other measures might influence them. Even the phrase "patient" was
debated: Would removing it cause markets to adjust the timing of the
first rate hike too aggressively?...Unfortunately, all the cross
currents give us little direction. Prior to the re-acceleration in wages
and the continued strong labor market readings and the rebound in oil
prices, it would appear that fading a June hike would have made sense
given these minutes. Post these realities, it is not clear. The
testimony next week is unlikely to prove too instructive as Yellen
testifies on behalf of the committee, which last met on January 28th.
For now we will keep our forecast of a June rate hike counting on the
still-strong labor market and rebound in energy prices to win the day.
We will have to be "patient" to see how this wind blows.
Deutsche Bank: The minutes from the January 27 - 28
FOMC meeting did not indicate any substantive changes to the growth
outlook compared to the Fed's most recent projections released last
December. The near-term inflation outlook was revised down slightly due
to further declines in oil prices. However the staff's inflation
forecast for 2016 and 2017 was "essentially unchanged." There was
considerable debate over the interpretation of market-based measures of
inflation compensation but there were no firm conclusions with respect
to the longer-term inflation outlook, which the FOMC still sees as
gradually rising toward its 2% target. Moreover, the Fed reiterated the
view that low energy prices were a net positive for the economy. In
short, there were no material changes with respect to the economic and
ANZ: The minutes from the January FOMC meeting were
more dovish than expected although we do not expect there has been a
wholesale change in view. The FOMC appears more concerned about risks
from offshore and the higher USD and many FOMC members would prefer to
keep the fed funds rate at near zero bound for a longer time. In our
view, we would not read too much into the term 'longer'. In addition,
given many of the offshore risks - such as the Greek and Ukraine
situations - now look more likely to be resolved, this should allay a
lot of the stated reasons for hesitancy. We continue to look for the
first hike around mid-year although we acknowledge the risks of the Fed
waiting have increased. Yellen's speeches next week will be important
NAB: The killer paragraph in the minutes of the Fed's
January meeting reads as follows: "Many participants indicated that
their assessment of the balance of risks associated with the timing of
the beginning of policy normalization had inclined them toward keeping
the federal funds rate at its effective lower bound for a longer time".
In FOMC speak, many is taken to mean a majority, and these words have
had the effect of pushing implied money market yields in the fourth
quarter of 2015 down by about 5bps on average, and by as much as 10bps
further out along the shorter end of the yield curve. It's worth
remembering here that the mood music coming from Fed officials ahead of
the minutes - but since the meeting itself - had been consistent in
suggesting that a June Fed 'lift-off' is still a very live risk. Janet
Yellen's testimonies next week now loom large. Trading will be thinner
than normal given today is the Lunar New Year holiday and so Greater
China is shut.
SEB: It is our understanding that the Fed minutes did
not suggest that the FOMC is paving the way for a June rate hike as
"many officials were inclined to stay at zero for longer". Moreover, the
drop in inflation expectations was apparently worrying since a number
of participants emphasized that they would need to see either an
increase in market-based measures of inflation compensation or evidence
that continued low readings on these measures did not constitute grounds
for concern. While we may have a different view after Chair Yellen's
semi-annual testimony before congress next week, the minutes are not
suggesting to us that "patience" will be dropped as early as in the
March statement. Our forecast still is for liftoff a few meetings later,
Barclays: Our main takeaway from the January FOMC
minutes is that concern about downside risk to inflation has risen and,
consequently, the bar for raising rates by June is higher than it was in
December. We maintain our baseline forecast for a June rate hike at
this juncture, but the risk of a later takeoff has risen, particularly
if downside surprises on core inflation continue. We look to Chair
Yellen's comments in front of the US Senate and House of Representatives
next week for further clarification on the committee's thinking.
Danske: The minutes from the January FOMC meeting
strongly suggest that the FOMC's fed funds rate projections will be
lowered at the upcoming 18 March meeting and the minutes were in general
more dovish than recent Fed speeches. Data received since the FOMC
meeting on 28 January includes the January employment report, which was
very strong. However, we doubt that one data point is enough to turn the
Committee's sentiment, in particular when inflation indicators continue
to be soft. This challenges our call that the Fed will remove 'patient'
from the statement in March and raise the fed funds rate this summer If
February data on employment continue to show solid improvement and
inflation indicators stabilise, we continue to believe the Fed would
like to have the flexibility to raise rates in June. Hence, 'patient'
should be dropped in March but will be combined with soft comments from
Janet Yellen and lower economic projections in order to keep the market
CIBC: The latest minutes show that many officials felt
dropping patient could lead markets to price in too early a move to
tighten policy, putting upwards pressure on rates when some sectors like
housing are still showing uneven signs of recovery. Notwithstanding
that, several members suggested that a "late departure" could result in
monetary policy becoming excessively accommodative. Not inconsistent
with that view, there was general agreement that the minutes should
"acknowledge solid growth over the second half of 2014, as well as the
further improvement in the labour market." The minutes overall show that
opinion within the FOMC remains deeply split on when the Fed should
take the next step on the road to policy normalization. Although
inflation has moved down, the minutes also affirm the statement in
suggesting that most members continue to see the drop as a transitory
consequence of lower oil prices, and therefore not sufficient at this
point to warrant a notable delay in moving interest rates up from the
lower bound. Today's release does not change our view that June still
remains the most likely date for policy lift off. A slight positive for
bonds given further signs of the Committee's reluctance to dispense with
the key word "patience". The focus now shifts to Yellen's testimony
next week for further information on the policy outlook.
GBPUSD, M5, 2015.02.19
GBPUSD M5: 60 pips price movement by USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes news event
EURUSD, M5, 2015.02.19
EURUSD M5: 65 pips price movement by USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes news event
newdigital, 2015.02.20 09:48
Trading the News: Canada Retail Sales (based on dailyfx article)
A slowdown in Canada Retail Sales may spur a larger advance in USD/CAD
as the Bank of Canada (BoC) adopts a more cautious outlook for the
Why Is This Event Important:
Following the surprise rate cut at the January 21 meeting, a further
deterioration in the growth outlook may prompt BoC Governor Stephen
Poloz to relay a more dovish tone for monetary policy and show a greater
willingness to further reduce the benchmark interest rate in an effort
to generate a stronger recovery.
Nevertheless, easing inflation along with the ongoing improvement in the
labor market may boost household spending, and a better-than-expected
print may push USD/CAD back towards the monthly low (1.2350) as it
limit’s the BoC’s scope to implement offer lower borrowing-costs.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish CAD Trade: Canada Retail Sales Slip 0.4% or Greater
USDCAD, M5, 2015.02.20
USDCAD M5: 69 pips price movement by CAD - Retail Sales news event
Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5
newdigital, 2013.06.28 15:55
Well ... some questions and answers :
Q: what is the most profitable pair to trade the news?
Q: what is the most risky pair to trade the news?
Q: what is the most stable pair to trade the news (consistantly profitable pair for trading news events)?
Q: what is less risky pair to trade the news?
Thanx for your attention
That's all news
newdigital, 2015.02.25 09:38
Trading the News: German Unemployment Change (based on dailyfx article)
Another 10K contraction in German Unemployment may encourage a near-term
rebound in EUR/USD as it raises the prospects for a stronger recovery
in the euro-area.
Why Is This Event Important:
A further improvement in Europe’s largest economy may limit the European
Central Bank’s (ECB) scope to further embark on its easing cycle and
heighten the appeal of the single currency especially as the
member-states take unprecedented steps to mitigate the risk for
However, waning business confidence paired with the slowdown in
production may drag on employment, and a dismal labor report may
heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the Euro as ECB President
Mario Draghi keeps the door open to further support the monetary union.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish EUR Trade: Unemployment Contracts 10K or Greater
EUR/USD Daily Chart
newdigital, 2015.02.26 05:23
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
[NZD - Trade Balance] =Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners
must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export
demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers
New Zealand Has NZ$56 Million Trade Surplus
New Zealand had a merchandise trade surplus of NZ$56 million in January, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday.
topped expectations for a deficit of NZ$158 million following the
downwardly revised NZ$195 million shortfall in December (originally
Exports were worth NZ$3.70 billion - shy of
expectations for NZ$3.73 billion and down from the downwardly revised
NZ$4.40 billion in the previous month (originally NZ$4.42 billion).
were at NZ$3.64 billion versus forecasts for NZ$3.94 billion following
the upwardly revised NZ$4.60 billion a month earlier (originally NZ$4.58
NZDUSD, M5, 2015.02.26
NZDUSD M5: 19 pips price movement by NZD - Trade Balance news event
newdigital, 2015.02.27 12:05
Trading the News: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (based on dailyfx article)
A marked downward revision in the U.S. growth rate may generate a
short-term rebound in EUR/USD should the preliminary 4Q Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) report dampen bets for a mid-2015 Fed rate hike.
Why Is This Event Important:
Despite bets for higher borrowing-costs, further weakness in the core
Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Fed’s preferred gauge for
inflation, may push Chair Janet Yellen to endorse a wait-and-see
approach and further delay the normalization cycle as the central bank
struggles to achieve the 2% target for price growth.
Nevertheless, the uptick in private wages paired with the ongoing
improvement in the labor market may foster a better-than-expected GDP
report, and bets for a stronger recovery may heighten the bullish
sentiment surrounding the U.S. dollar as the Fed remains on course to
remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) over the near to
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish USD Trade: Growth Rate Narrows to 2.0% or Lower
EURUSD, M5, 2015.02.27
EURUSD M5: 19 pips price movement by USD - GDP news event
newdigital, 2015.03.11 18:01
EURUSD Moves on Lower Lows (based on dailyfx article)
The EURUSD has opened Wednesdays trading with the creation of a new
weekly lower low. This decline is significant as the pair has declined
as much as 347 pips week to date. However, despite its weakness the
EURUSD is attempting to trade back above todays S4 Camarilla pivot at
1.0607. While this does not negate the current downtrend, traders will
watch to see if price moves back into today’s trading range starting at
the S3 pivot near 1.0652. In the event price breaches this point,
traders may begin looking for a move back up towards range resistance at
In the event that price begins to again gain momentum, trend traders may
elect to look for a breakout again under the S4 pivot. This would
signal a potential increase in USD strength and traders would look for
further declines at this point. Conversely if price trades through
todays range, towards the R4 pivot at 1.0786, it would suggest price
beginning a larger counter trend move with the creation of a new higher
newdigital, 2015.03.12 06:19
[NZD - Official Cash Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation
- traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates
will change in the future.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy board on Thursday
announced that it was holding its Official Cash Rate steady at 3.50
percent - in line with expectations.
It was the fifth straight
month with no change for the RBNZ, which had hiked the OCR by 25 basis
points in each of previous four meetings prior to September.
that, there were 23 straight meetings with no change. The OCR had been
at a record low 2.50 percent since March 10, 2011 as the country dealt
with the global economic slowdown.
It wasn't until last March that
the central bank felt confident enough in a recovery that it lifted the
OCR - although no additional action is likely in the near term.
financial conditions remain very accommodative, and are reflected in
high equity prices and record low interest rates. However, volatility in
has increased since late-2014 following the sharp drop in oil prices,
continued uncertainty about the global outlook and U.S. monetary policy,
and policy easings by a number of central banks," the bank said in a
statement accompanying the decision.
"The New Zealand dollar remains unjustifiably high and unsustainable
in terms of New Zealand's long-term economic fundamentals. A substantial
downward correction in the real exchange rate is needed to put New
Zealand's external accounts on a more sustainable footing," the bank
The RBNZ called it prudent to take more time and further observe the effects of its moves to date.
bank pointed to several factors for taking its time in taking any
further actions, including weak global inflation, falls in international
oil prices and the high exchange rate.
"Our central projection is
consistent with a period of stability in the OCR. However, future
interest rate adjustments, either up or down, will depend on the
emerging flow of economic data," the bank said.
NZDUSD, M5, 2015.03.12
NZDUSD M5: 115 pips price movement by NZD - Official Cash Rate news event
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