This is updated situation for USDCHF - the second try for breakdown:
I mean - we may have goodf breakdown for USDCHF in case of price will break 0.9170 resistance line.
I promissed here to describe something about divergence. yes, it is related to this thread Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5
We can write about divergence from the following sources:
Or ... to make it shorter - we can see the rules from the image:
There are many indicators which can be used for it. I personally prefer MACD. First of all - because MACD is Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator. And because there are some good MACD divergence indicators but for MT4 sorry. If someone creates MACD divergence for MT5 and place it to CodeBase or to Market for low price - it will be very good (and it will be very popular indicator for MT5).
I used MACD divergence for real trading for many months with very good results.
This is the rules for MACD divergence (taken from 'Achelis - Technical Analysis from A to Z'):
A indication that an end to the current trend may be near occurs when the
MACD diverges from the security.A
bearish divergence occurs when the MACD is making new lows while prices fail to
reach new lows. A bullish divergence occurs when the MACD is making new highs
while prices fail to reach new highs. Both of these divergences are most
significant when they occur at relatively overbought/oversold levels.
One more update for USDCHF - the second try for breakout was successful :
It was ranging breakdown for H1 and "not yet" for H4.
As to big movement for GBPUSD now - it is not breakout for H1 timeframe. It is Bear Market Rally (see image):
It may be breakout for H1 when Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator will cross the price on close bar (same with H4).
Breakdown for GBPUSD may be started on H1 and H4 timeframes. It is started on open bar now so we need to wait untill the bar will be closed juust to be sure about it.
Update for GBPUSD - see image:
So, concerning GBPUSD - I am having strong feeling that someone is moving the price :)
When I wrote on the image as 'breakdown' and 'possible breakout on open bar' so it is related to Chinkou Span line crossing the price on historical data. I mean: this Chinkou Span line (just a line) is shifted by 26 bars so if this line is crossing historical price it means that it's happening right now (on open or close bar).
And if Chinkou Span line is very close to the bars so it is indicating that it may be breakout/breakdown soon especially if we had "non-trading zone" (flat) for the long time before this case.
Just the next example - where the price will go concerning Chinkou Span line?
So, if it will be uptrend (breakout) so nearest resistance line which may be stop this price is 1.5656. In case of downtrend (breakdown) so resistance lines are 1.5644 and 1.5637