Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 98

Sergey Golubev
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newdigital, 2014.12.17 15:01

2014-12-17 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

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The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.3 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The gasoline index posted its sharpest decline since December 2008 and was the main cause of the decrease in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The indexes for fuel oil and natural gas also declined, and the energy index fell 3.8 percent. The food index rose 0.2 percent with major grocery store food groups mixed.


The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in November. The shelter index rose 0.3 percent, and the indexes for medical care, airline fares, and alcoholic beverages also rose. In contrast, the indexes for apparel, used cars and trucks, recreation, household furnishings and operations, personal care, and new vehicles all declined in November.

The all items index increased 1.3 percent over the last 12 months, a notable decline from the 1.7 percent figure from the 12 months ending October. The index for all items less food and energy has increased 1.7 percent over the last 12 months, compared to 1.8 percent for the 12 months ending October. The food index has risen 3.2 percent over the span. However the energy index has declined 4.8 percent over the past 12 months, with the gasoline and fuel oil indexes both falling over 10 percent.

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GBPUSD, M5, 2014.12.17

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GBPUSD M5: 18 pips price movement by USD - CPI news event

GBPUSD, M5, 2014.12.17, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
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newdigital, 2014.12.17 21:01

2014-12-17 19:30 GMT (or 21:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - FOMC Press Conference]

[USD - FOMC Press Conference] = It's among the primary methods the Fed uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate and other policy decisions, along with commentary about economic conditions such as the future growth outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy.

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The Fed is unlikely to start its rate hike process for "at least the next couple of meetings," Fed Chair Janet Yellen said.

The Fed surprised some Wednesday by leaving the phrase "considerable time" in its statement, but as a reference to the timing of rate hikes rather than a policy.

==========


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GBPUSD, M5, 2014.12.17

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GBPUSD M5: 136 pips price movement by USD - FOMC Press Conference news event

GBPUSD, M5, 2014.12.17, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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USDJPY, M5, 2014.12.17

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5

USDJPY M5: 129 pips price movement by USD - FOMC Press Conference news event

USDJPY, M5, 2014.12.17, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

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USDCHF, M5, 2014.12.17

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5

USDCHF M5: 95 pips price movement by USD - FOMC Press Conference news event

USDCHF, M5, 2014.12.17, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



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newdigital, 2014.12.19 10:05

USD/CAD to Face Fresh December Highs on Dismal Canada CPI (based on dailyfx article)

  • Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Hold Above 2% Target for Eighth Consecutive Month.
  • Core Inflation to Climb Annualized 2.5% to Mark the Fastest Pace of Growth Since February 2012.

Trading the News: Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI)

A slowdown in Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may spur fresh monthly highs in USD/CAD especially as the Bank of Canada (BoC) remains reluctant to further normalize monetary policy.

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

However, another uptick in the core rate of inflation may heighten the appeal of the loonie as sticky price growth undermines the BoC’s scope to retain the current policy, and Governor Stephen Poloz may sound increasingly hawkish in 2015 as the central bank head highlights the broadening recovery in the Canadian economy.

Lower input costs paired with the slowdown in the housing market may trigger a sharp slowdown in price growth, and a dismal CPI print may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the Canadian dollar as it drags on interest rate expectations.

However, the pickup in economic activity along with the expansion in private sector consumption may produce a stronger-than-expected inflation report, and sticky price pressures may generate a near-term pullback in USD/CAD as it fuels bets for a BoC rate hike.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish CAD Trade: Headline & Core Inflation Miss Market Forecast

  • Need green, five-minute candle following a dismal CPI report to consider long USD/CAD entry
  • If the market reaction favors a bearish Canadian dollar trade, establish long with two position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from cost; use at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bullish CAD Trade: Canada CPI Highlights Stronger Price Pressures
  • Need red, five-minute candle following the release to look at a short USD/CAD trade
  • Carry out the same setup as the bearish loonie trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The Release
USD/CAD Daily Chart


  • USD/CAD may have carved a near-term top in December as the RSI quickly turns around from overbought territory.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1700 pivot to 1.1715 (100% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.1470 (50% expansion) to 1.1480 (38.2% expansion)
Impact that the Canada CPI report has had on CAD during the last month

PeriodData ReleasedSurveyActualPips Change
(1 Hour post event )
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
OCT
2014
11/21/2014 12:30 GMT 2.1% 2.4% -27 -29

Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) unexpectedly jumped to an annualized rate of 2.4% in October from 2.0% the month prior, while the core rate of inflation increased 2.1% to mark the highest reading since March 2012. Even though price growth holds above the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) 2% inflation target for the seventh consecutive months, it seems the central bank remains in no rush to further normalize monetary policy amid the weakening outlook for global growth paired with the decline in energy prices. The loonie strengthened against its U.S. counterpart following the better-than-expected print, with USD/CAD dipping below the 1.1200 handle following the release. However, the market reaction was short-lived as dollar-loonie worked its way back towards 1.1250 during the North America trade, with the pair closing the day at 1.1290.

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USDCAD, M5, 2014.12.19

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USDCAD M5: 28 pips price movement by CAD - CPI news event

USDCAD, M5, 2014.12.19, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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newdigital, 2014.12.19 16:53

Consumer Price Index, November 2014 (official report)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.0% in the 12 months to November, following a 2.4% increase in October.


The slower year-over-year rise in the CPI was mainly attributable to gasoline prices, which fell 5.9% in the 12 months to November, after rising 0.6% in October.

On a monthly basis, the gasoline price index declined 7.5% in November, marking its fifth consecutive monthly decrease. In November, gasoline prices were at their lowest level since February 2011.

Gasoline prices fell in all provinces on a year-over-year basis in November. Prince Edward Island recorded the largest decline, while British Columbia posted the smallest.



Prices increased in seven of the eight major components in the 12 months to November. Higher shelter and food costs led the rise in the CPI, while the transportation index was the only major component to decline year over year in November.



Sergey Golubev
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Something Interesting in Financial Video December 2014

newdigital, 2014.12.26 06:27

Forex Video: The Equal Waves Pattern (based on dailyfx article)

Many traders ask how to begin labeling their chart using Elliott Wave Theory. Try starting with the Equal Waves pattern. The video above describes what the pattern is, how to measure it, and what you can anticipate once the pattern is identified.

The Equal Waves pattern is a three wave structure. Therefore, it can also indicate what the larger degree Elliott Wave pattern in development.

For example, depending on where it shapes, the pattern could be the A or B leg of a flat correction, one of the legs of a triangle, an entire zig zag correction, one leg of a complex correction, or one of legs of a diagonal motive wave.



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newdigital, 2014.12.27 20:05

Trading Video: Short Term Euro and Yen Setups the Order for Next Week (based on dailyfx article)

  • Tepid liquidity this past week curbed trade opportunities and another lull is expected on New Year's Day
  • Medium and long-term trade setups are unlikely to progress this week, but short-term options can do well
  • There are plenty of short-term breakouts setting up for EURUSD, EURJPY, AUDUSD and others

There are more than a few great technical and fundamental setups tempting FX traders. Yet, many of these high-profile opportunities call for dramatic breaks, reversals or trend upgrades which requires deep market liquidity. Similar to this past week's Christmas drain, the New Year's holiday in the week ahead will create another whirlpool. As the big setups gestate, we should turn our focus to the many short-term setups that have formed in the market. Many of the majors and crosses present the proper technical patterns to trigger breakouts, but certain pairs offer different circumstances. With a Greek Parliament election on Monday; EURUSD, EURGBP and EURJPY, are fundamentally loaded. Conversely, pairs like GBPJPY, GBPNZD and GBPAUD are naturally more volatile. We discuss next week's trading landscape in the weekend Trading Video.



Sergey Golubev
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Press review

newdigital, 2015.01.02 10:13

Trading Video: A Big Picture Technical Look at FX and Capital Markets for 2015 (based on dailyfx article)

  • Looking at a decade or more of price can offer an eye-opening view of technical opportunity
  • The Dollar, EURUSD, USDJPY, S&P 500 and Oil are just a few markets that benefit a 'big picture' review
  • Combine the technical with fundamental and market conditions to set up your 2015 positions

Whether you are a short-term scalper or a more patient swing trader, taking a step back to look at the 'bigger picture' can help your trading. We have these past weeks looked at the bigger picture for fundamentals and general market conditions. So, to start off the New Year, we will look at the alluring big-picture technical patterns that have taken shape across the FX and capital markets. Incredible runs like that from USDollar, tentative massive breakouts from EURUSD and EURGBP, and the specter of reversal from the likes of USDJPY and EURJPY offer incredible potential for 2015. Combine the fundamental and market conditions views for the New Year with today's Trading Video technical overview to find your favorite setups.



Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2015.01.06 10:15

2015-01-06 00:30 GMT (or 02:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Trade Balance]
  • past data is -0.88B
  • forecast data is -1.59B
  • actual data is -0.93B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.

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Australia November Trade Deficit A$925 Million

Australia posted a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade deficit of A$925 million in November, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.

That beat forecasts for a shortfall of A$1.6 billion following the upwardly revised deficit of A$877 million in October (originally A$1.323 billion).

Exports were up 1.0 percent on month to A$27.085 billion.

Non-rural goods rose A$486 million or 3 percent, while rural goods climbed A$179 million (6 percent).

Non-monetary gold tumbled A$519 million (38percent), while net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at A$43 million. Service credits rose A$14 million.

Imports also collected 1.0 percent on month to A$28.010 billion.

Intermediate and other merchandise goods added A$224 million (2%) and consumption goods gained A$131 million (2 percent).

Non-monetary gold plunged A$90 million (27 percent) and capital goods fell A$78 million (1 percent). Service debits added A$20 million.


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AUDUSD, M5, 2015.01.06

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AUDUSD M5: 33 pips price movement by AUD - Trade Balance news event

AUDUSD, M5, 2015.01.06, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


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newdigital, 2015.01.07 17:06

Price & Time: EUR/USD Collapse Continues (based on dailyfx article)


  • EUR/USD has come under renewed pressure this morning to trade at its lowest level since January of 2006
  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower in EUR/USD while below 1.2000
  • The next important action/reaction zone looks to be around 1.1750/80
  • A medium-term turn window is seen later this week
  • A close over 1.2000 would turn us positive on the euro

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev