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newdigital, 2015.04.13 06:21
EUR/USD technical analysis from Goldman Sachs - Elliot Wave (based on forexlive article)
1.0286-1.0103 pivot includes 76.4% retrace of theentire '00/'08 rise as
well as an equality target taken from the Jul. '08 peak. Reaching it
would satisfy a multi-year ABC which began in '08. It would consequently
be an ideal place to take on a more neutral outlook.
newdigital, 2015.04.13 16:43
AUDIO - Weekend Edition with John O'Donnell
Financial illiteracy is a major factor in America’s significant shortfall with retirement savings and much more. John and Merlin
talk about how this illiteracy is spreading, and what we should do to
help improve financial understanding. The duo also take a look at paper
profits most investors hold, and how they should protect those gains in
the face of a potential market correction.
Something Interesting in Financial Video April 2015
newdigital, 2015.04.14 05:56
EUR/USD Forex Analysis- April 14, 2015
The EUR/USD pair fell during the bulk of the session on Monday, testing
the 1.05 handle. This is an area that has been supportive in the past,
so therefore it does not surprise me at all that we bounced. That bounce
of course forming a hammer is a very bullish sign but I have no
interest in buying this pair. I recognize that the Euro is a massive
ball of trouble waiting to happen, and as a result I have no interest in
being long of this pair. On top of that, the US dollar of course has
strengthened exponentially for some time, so as a result I have no
interest in shorting the Dollar.
newdigital, 2015.04.14 06:05
EUR/USD: Towards 1.15 Or Below 1.00 - JP Morgan (based on efxnews article)
JP Morgan's EUR/USD forecast profile is unchanged this month and continues to show a slower decline for the rest of the year, after an unprecedented -11% drop in Q1. JPM's Quarter-end targets are 1.07 in Q2, 1.06 in Q3 and 1.05 in Q4.
"Downside targets would be more aggressive were it not for the US
dollar’s valuation problem and the Fed’s gradual pushback on a strong
currency," JPM argues.
"Based on JPM’s expectations that the ECB balance sheet expands
to €3.5trn by end 2016 and that 5-yr spreads might move about 50bp in
the US’s favour, EUR/USD’s fair value is about 1.12 (blue cell in table 1). The
euro's current level near 1.06 would be justified if the ECB balance
sheet were heading to €5trn (unlikely given how Euro area growth is
improving) or the USEuro 5-yr spread would widen to over 300bp over the
cycle (unlikely as the Fed dots fall towards the money market curve due
to mediocre US growth)," JPM adds.
"So while we know that currencies can undershoot for some time
until a macroeconomic or policy catalyst emerges, we are reluctant to
forecast trend extensions that have little empirical basis," JPM argues.
newdigital, 2015.04.14 11:51
The Next Big Levels In EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD - Goldman Sachs (based on efxnews article)
Starting with EUR/USD, GS notes that it peaked least
week right underneath an important resistance area at 1.1052-1.1099, a
region included the interim high (bearish key day reversal) from Mar.
26th , the interim low from Jan. 26th and the 55-dma.
"It’s since broken lower from a triangle type pattern (ABCDE).
Triangles tend to be characteristic of wave 4s which in this case suits
the underlying wave count and implies that there is further downside
potential. The next near-term support stands down at 1.0487- 1.0458 (1.618 extension from Mar. 26th and the low from Mar. 15th)," GS projects.
Bigger picture, GS targets f EURUSD at 1.0286-1.0103 pivot which includes 76.4% retrace of the entire ‘00/’08 rise as well as an equality target taken from the Jul. ’08 peak.
Moving to GBP/USD, GS notes that it has broken trendline
support and this should in theory be a strong signal opening up
potential to accelerate lower.
"The next big level lower is 1.4372-1.420. This
includes two long-term Fibonacci retracements and the low from May
’10...Put simply, it appears that GBPUSD is gradually making its way
down to the bottom of its multi-decade range," GS projects.
Finally in USD/CAD, GS thinks that the focus should be back on the range highs; 1.2799-1.2835.
"Would however need a clean break above 1.2799-1.2835 to cancel out the
risk of a double top and to diminish the bearish implications of the
bearish key day reversal which formed on Mar. 18th . Ideally want to play the range until a break in either direction is finally attain," GS advises.
How to Start with Metatrader 5
newdigital, 2015.02.03 18:48
newdigital, 2015.04.15 08:34
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
[CNY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.
China GDP Rises 7.0% On Year In Q1
China's gross domestic product expanded 7.0 percent on year in the
first quarter of 2015, the National Bureau of Statistics said on
Wednesday, coming in at 14,066.7 billion yuan.
The headline figure was in line with expectations while slowing from 7.3 percent in the previous three months.
an annualized quarterly basis, GDP gained 1.3 percent - below
expectations for 1.4 percent and down from 1.5 percent in the fourth
The value added of the primary industry was 777.0 billion
yuan, up by 3.2 percent year-on-year; that of the secondary industry
was 6,029.2 billion yuan, up 6.4 percent; and that of the tertiary
industry was 7,260.5 billion yuan, up 7.9 percent.
added that industrial production gained just 5.6 percent on year in
March - shy of forecasts for an increase of 7.0 percent and down from
7.9 percent in February. Output was up 0.25 percent on month.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
AUDUSD, M5, 2015.04.15
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
AUDUSD M5: 29 pips price movement by CNY - GDP news event
newdigital, 2015.04.15 13:35
Dovish ECB to Fuel Bearish EUR/USD Outlook- 1.0500 in Focus (based on dailyfx article)
Trading the News: European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision
The fresh batch of rhetoric coming out of the European Central Bank (ECB) may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the EUR/USD should President Mario Draghi endorse a dovish outlook for monetary policy
However, we may see growing speculation for a ‘taper
tantrum’ in the euro-area should Mr. Draghi adopt a more upbeat tone
for the region and talk down expectations for more non-standard measures
as the recent developments coming out of the monetary union beat market
Nevertheless, we may get more of the same from the
ECB amid the series of positive data prints coming out of the euro-area,
and the single-currency may face a more meaningful correction over the
near-term should the central bank implement a more hawkish twist to the
forward-guidance for monetary policy.
Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Stays on Course & Talks Down ‘Taper Tantrum’
Bullish EUR Trade: Governing Council Adopts Improved Outlook
newdigital, 2015.04.15 16:42
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
[CAD - Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation
- traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates
will change in the future.
"The Bank of Canada today announced that it
is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 3/4 per cent. The
Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/2 per
Total CPI inflation is at 1 per cent, reflecting the drop in consumer
energy prices. Core inflation has remained close to 2 per cent in
recent months, as the temporary effects of sector-specific factors and
pass-through of the lower Canadian dollar have offset the
disinflationary forces from slack in the economy.
The Bank expects global growth to strengthen and average 3 1/2 per
cent per year over 2015-17, in line with the projection in the January Monetary Policy Report
(MPR). This is in part because many central banks have eased monetary
policies in recent months to counter persistent slack and low inflation,
as well as the effect of lower commodity prices in some cases. At the
same time, economies continue to adjust to lower oil prices, which have
fluctuated at or below levels assumed in the January MPR. Strong growth
in the United States is expected to resume in the second quarter of 2015
after a weak first quarter".
USDCAD, M5, 2015.04.15
USDCAD M5: 97 pips price movement by CAD - Overnight Rate news event
newdigital, 2015.04.16 09:00
if actual < forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - Unemployment Rate] = Percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of
unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health
because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market
Australia March Jobless Rate Falls To 6.1%
"The unemployment rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted
6.1 percent in March, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on
That beat forecasts for 6.3 percent, which would have been unchanged from the February reading.
The Australia economy
added 37,700 jobs in March to 11,720,300 - also beating expectations
for adding 15,000 following the gain of 15,600 jobs in the previous
AUDUSD, M5, 2015.04.16
AUDUSD M5: 70 pips price movement by AUD - Unemployment Rate news event